??? ??????'? ???? ?????? ??????? ???????? Getting Bare    Most are now aware that the low supply of housing inventory is currently the driving force in the valley’s real estate marketplace.  According to the Cromford Index, supply is down a whopping 42% from the peak of October 2022. Where have all the sellers gone?  Answer: they are staying home and hanging on to their low interest rates.  When will that all change?  Either when market conditions (interest rates, economy, shifts in pricing) prompt change or with life changes (divorce ..read more

?? ??? ???? ?????? ?????? ???????? "??? ?????? ???????"?   The cupboard full of active listings for sale is starting to dwindle and trending towards bare.  According to the Cromford Index, supply is down a whopping 42% from the peak of October 2022.  Where have all the sellers gone?  Answer: they are staying home and hanging on to their low interest rates.  When will that all change?  Either when market conditions (interest rates, economy, shifts in pricing) prompt change or with time.  Moves can only be put off for so ..read more

  ?????????? ??????? ??????? ? ????????????? ??????? ??????   “I'm skeptical that the world is round What keeps it up and what keeps me down?”   ~Kim Carnes, from the song “Skeptical Shuffle”~     The average person could be forgiven for being skeptical of this real estate market.  After all, it was just over a year ago that sellers were dancing on the tables in euphoria as they achieved record pricing for their homes. By May the music had stopped and June ended the party for the rest of the year.  2022 closed in the doldrums. &n ..read more

The media continues to push the narrative that interest rates are killing the spring home buying season and that danger lurks everywhere. News of failed banks SVB and Credit Suisse creates fear that the banking crisis of 2007 is repeating.  YouTube “experts” claim that foreclosures are on the rise.  Yet the facts do not support any of these theories in the greater Phoenix area.  What is good for headlines (alarming or controversial news) is not good for reality.  What is true is that uncertain times create jitters in the financial sector which can have an impact o ..read more

??? ????????? ??. ???????   The media continues to push the narrative that interest rates are killing the spring home buying season. Yet the facts do not support this theory in the greater Phoenix area.  While interest rates may be keeping some buyers out of the market – the impact seems to be the greatest on sellers.  When sellers cannot comparably replace their current interest rates if they buy – they stay put.  So although listings are far more abundant than last year, they are still roughly 40% below the normal range of 20,000-24,000.  Her ..read more

Seller's Market - but for how long?   The current market has shifted to the seller’s favor once again.  But this is not your mama’s market (i.e. the 2022 unbeatable spring market). Last spring we were in an overheated seller’s market – fueled by demand, low supply and low interest rates – it looked unstoppable.  Yet with interest rates more than doubling, by fourth quarter both supply and demand were in a deep freeze. We ended 2022 in a buyer’s market.     Fast forward to February 2023 – and the market is now a gentle seller’s market.  What?!  In what was lit ..read more

Why a Balanced Market feels so Unbalanced    Most buyers and sellers would be surprised to hear that the greater Phoenix real estate market is “a balanced market” at the moment.  But it’s true.  Why doesn’t it feel that way?  We think it feels unbalanced primarily for 3 reasons:   1.   Appreciation has been strong since 2015 making the 2022 price correction feel awful to sellers by comparison. 2.   The number of transactions (market shrink) are much lower than normal as   buyers and sellers headed to the sidelines.  Sellers feare ..read more

Silent Night The real estate market is eerily quiet as 2022 comes to a close.  After years of record setting numbers, which culminated in the 1st quarter of 2022, the shift came swiftly and sharply in the 2nd quarter.  Demand dropped precipitously after interest rates spiked – reaching its lowest level since April of 2008.  Smart sellers responded quickly to the plummeting demand by lowering prices and increasing seller concessions to pay for the buyer’s interest rate buy-downs.  While the news publicized the large decrease in demand, the equally weakening supply garnered f ..read more

By now most are aware that the greater Phoenix market began the year as a seller’s market, then balanced market, and now has slipped to a buyer’s market.  As we often repeat,  real estate markets are local (meaning national statistics are not reflective of what is happening locally) and truth be told, real estate markets are actually hyper-local.  That means different areas and price points may not act in unison even in the same locality.  The Cromford Report shares: “Buckeye, Maricopa and Queen Creek entered a buyers’ market in July. Surprise, Chandler, Gilbert and Tempe f ..read more

Much has been written about the greater Phoenix housing market and even more about the national housing market. The first thing to remember is housing is local.  Following  the national trends while interesting (misery loves company), is anecdotal. Shocking headlines and clickbait may increase readership, but is of little help to those trying to make financial decisions.  While the future is unknown, the present is knowable.   Let’s examine some commonly held ideas and see which hold up as fact, or fall apart as fiction.  Facts  Interest rates have weakened ..read more