Market Update July 2024
Russell Shaw Group
by
5d ago
Market Erosion  The trickling erosion of the market continues although the rate of erosion appears to now be slowing.  While supply is up, in fact up a whopping 57% from this time last year, it is still below normal.  Demand is more problematic and continues to be anemic at best.  It seems likely to stay that way unless a drop in interest rates changes buyers’ appetites.  So although we are overall in a balanced market –  for most sellers it doesn’t feel that way.  In fact, areas and price points are behaving differently.  In the center of the valley, su ..read more
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Temperatures Heat Up, While the Market Cools
Russell Shaw Group
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3w ago
Most people falsely believe that election years somehow benefit the real estate market.  Elections can affect the stock market (which can affect the luxury market) but the basic underpinning of real estate remains supply and demand.   Real estate agents had hoped 2024 would see an improvement over 2023, but instead a very slow motion chill has been taking place all year creating an even more anemic market than the last.  Slow moving change can prove challenging to interpret given that it is harder to perceive minute, but persistent, changes than seismic shifts.  Not su ..read more
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Market Snapshot May 2024
Russell Shaw Group
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2M ago
A Low Volume Market does not equal a Low Priced One  As we have stated so many times, a low volume market is not a headline grabber.  You wouldn’t know that listening to the “authorities” who trade on clickbait headlines.  For years they have been promising crashing prices.  No, just no.  Here is the truth of the market.  Mortgage rates have remained high for about two years now.  That suppressed demand. But, that does not automatically equate to reduced prices.  For downward pressure on price – you need excess supply.  And while supply has slowly c ..read more
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The Slow Motion Market
Russell Shaw Group
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3M ago
The Greater Phoenix real estate market is not much of a headline grabber.  In fact, the marketplace reminds me of a Saturday Night Live skit I watched recently “Pilates – so hard and so boring”. Yup, we see some similarities.  The market has slowly eroded into a sort of balance between supply and demand. However, as we so often have pointed out, to paint the valley with one paintbrush is simplistic and inaccurate.  Specific price points and areas behave uniquely. Of the 17 largest municipalities, 10 currently favor sellers – they are in descending strength: Chandler, Gilbert, Gl ..read more
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Market Update April 2024
Russell Shaw Group
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3M ago
The Goldilocks Effect: Phoenix's Spring Housing Market Hits the Balance  We are now in the heart of the spring selling season and yet it doesn’t feel like prime time.  The market has been quieter than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year.  The greater Phoenix market has drifted into a balance - as homes for sale have slowly accumulated and demand has waned under the pressure of rising interest rates.   The numbers below provided by Tom Ruff of the Stat as well as the Cromford Report –  confirm 2024 first quarter lackluster numbers:      ..read more
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April 2024 Market Update
Russell Shaw Group
by
3M ago
??? ?????????? ??????:???????'? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????  We are now in the heart of the spring selling season and yet it doesn’t feel like prime time.  The market has been quieter than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year.  The greater Phoenix market has drifted into a balance - as homes for sale have slowly accumulated and demand has waned under the pressure of rising interest rates.    The numbers below provided by Tom Ruff of the Stat as well as the Cromford Report – confirm 2024 first quarter lackluster numbers:    • In ..read more
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Market Update March 2024
Russell Shaw Group
by
4M ago
??? ?????? ?? ??? ???????  Now that the peak home buying season is upon us – we have a little more data on how the market is performing.  No pearl clutching headlines here, but still, we find it interesting (accusations of being a geek might be valid) and hope you will as well.  ?????? – Supply is up 14% over last year but still 31% below normal according to the Cromford Report.  Compare the following numbers just for contrast.  We have as of the writing of this report – 16,886 active listings vs. 4400 just 2 years ago.  Wow.  Below normal looks pretty normal ..read more
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Market Update February 2024
Russell Shaw Group
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5M ago
2024… So Far We are only 45+ days into 2024 and we are anxiously trying to read the tea leaves for what this year will bring.  The fact that this is an election year leads most people to assume that the election will be an outsized influence on housing, specifically mortgage rates and pricing.  We love hearing the theories, but it is not true.  To quote the Cromford Report “the main influence on the housing market comes from policies, not the elections themselves”.  Now there is some truth that the stock market responds to elections – at least the last 4 elections saw the s ..read more
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Market Update January 2024
Russell Shaw Group
by
6M ago
The Housing Market Shifts Slightly Towards Sellers  2024 began with a slight advantage for home sellers.  Why?  December typically ends with less active listings every year as a number of listings expire on the 31st.  Additionally, we saw a little bump in buyer demand as interest rates became more attractive.  Those two small changes pushed the market out of the balanced zone (which only lasted 7 weeks) to one that slightly favors sellers.  But saying we are in a slight sellers’ market is still misleading as most generalities are. The luxury market has performed c ..read more
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Crystal Ball for 2024
Russell Shaw Group
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7M ago
With very few exceptions, the housing market begins every year with a question:  what will this year’s housing market bring?  The truth is that projecting beyond a few months enters one into the field of guessing, as there is no real estate Nostradamus.  But there are data points (courtesy of the Cromford Report) that tell us where we are and what the next few months may look like.   The 2023 Housing Market ended the year in “balance”.  Of course that is a bit misleading – as there are parts of the valley favoring buyers (think outlying areas such as Buckeye, Mari ..read more
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