In yesterdayʼs post, I reviewed the threats to populations around the world from food insecurity and the actions being taken by individual countries and groups of countries, including the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union). See June 27, 2022: The global food insecurity crisis — efforts to reduce the crisis and avoid widespread social unrest, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2022/06/27/the-global-food-insecurity-crisis-eorts-to-reduce-the- crisis-and-avoid-widespread-social-unrest/. Ahead of the release of the G7 Communiqu ..read more

In prior posts, I have reviewed the challenges globally on food security flowing from Russiaʼs invasion of Ukraine. These challenges compound the difficulties flowing from climate change problems of extended draughts in various parts of the world and the challenges for countries trying to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. See, e.g., May 24, 2022: How severe is the food security challenge?, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2022/05/24/how-severe-is-the-food-security-challenge/; May 16, 2022: Wheat prices spike following Indian export ban, https://currentthoughtsontrade.com/2022/05/16/wheatpr ..read more

Food and fertiliser export restrictions are exacerbating the current food price crisis. The WTO and EU legal toolkits provide some safeguards but are insufficient. Unblocking Ukrainian ports and facilitating wheat exports through large-scale international coordination remains essential. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent disruption of agricultural exports from both countries has had an unwelcome corollary: a surge in export restrictions on agricultural commodities around the world. This casts dark clouds over future food price developments and food supply in net-food-importing cou ..read more

In a two day European Council meeting this week, the Council addressed a wide range of issues including finally approving significant sanctions on Russian oil and continuing to focus on what can be done to reduce the food insecurity caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conclusions from the two day meeting can be found at European Council, Special meeting of the European Council (30 and 31 May 2022), Conclusions, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/56562/2022-05-30-31-euco-conclusions.pdf. The conclusions are eleven pages in length and cover a range of topics. The document is embedded ..read more

The lead story in the New York Times on May 24, 2022 had the following headline — Live Updates: World Leaders Call for Action to Free Trapped Ukrainian Food. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/24/world/russia-ukraine-war (“Russia’s blockade of seaports and attacks on grain warehouses have choked off one of the world’s breadbaskets. Western officials are accusing Russia of using food as a weapon.”). The article reviews presentations made at the World Economic Forum this week by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UN World Food Programme Executive Director David Beasley. EC ..read more

Ukraine and Russia are important exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. See, e.g., WTO Trade Profiles 2021 at 376 (Ukraine top three agricultural expoers were sunflower-seed, or cotton oil ($5.32 billion), corn ($4.885 billion) and wheat and meslin ($3.594 billion)) and 298 (Russian Federation, top two agricultural exports were wheat and meslin ($6.403 billion), sunflower seed or cotton oil ($2.206 billion). Ukraine’s exports in 2022 are certain to be disrupted by the Russian war in the country which is harming infrastructure, the ability of farmers to plant crops, increasing input costs ..read more

The IFPRI Food Security Portal’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is showing excessive levels of price volatility in the four major food commodities: Wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, as well as for cotton. Markets for hard and soft wheat and soybeans had already been more volatile than normal since late 2021, well ahead of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24. That conflict, coming on top of the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has already contributed to spiking food prices, with possible major consequences for global food security. Risi ..read more

Ukraine banned the export of wheat and other vital food commodities on Wednesday, triggering global fears for the food security of millions of people this year. Now the Pentagon has been urged to study how the disrupted food supply driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will impact security around the world.  Global leaders from China to the United Nations have warned millions could suffer from Russia’s war as some food prices have already soared and supplies are disrupted or cut off completely for months or years to come. Some warn that suffering could spark violence ..read more

The blood on Putin’s hands is not only from Ukraine and Russia, but from countries around the world that rely on imports for their food security. The consequences of Putin’s war will play out in regions already experiencing acute food insecurity and in food-importing countries that are most vulnerable to supply shocks and price increases. Buried in today’s headlines, an underreported reality is that global food insecurity is already at a 10-year high. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the follow-on effects of the pandemic—lost jobs and wages, supply chain disruptions, food price vol ..read more

A wide range of evidence suggests that global warming will have major effects on agricultural productivity throughout the world. Analysis suggests that each degree of daily temperature exposure above 30°C sharply reduces the yield of crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat (Schlenker and Roberts 2009). As the world gets hotter, rising temperatures are projected to cause great damage to vulnerable crops and regions.  Farmers might be able to mitigate some of the harm global warming causes to agriculture by re-optimising their production decisions in response to changing conditions. Researc ..read more