The data from last week suggest that the U.S. economy is losing momentum. In March, retail sales decreased by 1.0%, industrial production fell by 0.5%, and the consumer price index rose by a meager 0.1%. Recent market volatility has decreased, but inflationary pressures remain elevated. It is a reason to believe that the FOMC will raise rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on May 3. Analysts also expect this to signal the end of the cycle of monetary tightening that began in March of last year. In other major economies, the Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its policy rate at 4.50% during i ..read more

This week’s economic calendar delivers several tier-1 risk events to monitor, including US consumer confidence data on Tuesday, Aussie inflation and US durable goods data on Wednesday, Q1 GDP and weekly jobless claims on Thursday in the US, followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision and the US Core PCE Price Index on Friday. In the US, Advance Q1 US GDP data (2023) will be a key watch on Thursday this week at 1:30 pm GMT+1. Many desks expect a slightly lower annualised growth rate. Median estimates forecast growth to drop to 2.0% in Q1 from 2.6% in Q4 (2022). The forecast range, howev ..read more

Gala Games has announced that GALA v2 will be released on May 15. It will introduce several improvements to the native Ethereum contract, including improved burn mechanisms, security upgrades, and future upgradeability. As part of this upgrade, users will receive a direct 1:1 token airdrop of the new GALA (v2) token. Meanwhile, the previous iteration of the token, GALA (v1), will no longer be supported and will be worthless. Before the snapshot on May 15, users are advised to remove their Gala tokens from any liquidity pools or smart contracts, as tokens airdropped to these contracts may no ..read more

Last week's data supports a second-half recession. The LEI continues to decline, indicating labor market weakness. Home data also shows that the home market is far from recovering. According to analysts, one more quarter-point rate hike may come at the May 3 FOMC meeting as the most rapid policy tightening since the early 1980s winds down. However, the Fed might hold until the fourth quarter. Without the banking crisis, there may have been more rate hikes. Given current banking sector issues, we do not need further hikes beyond May. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its March–April ..read more

dYdX has announced that it will cease serving Canadian consumers within the following week. The company began winding down its services in Canada on April 7, when it suspended the registration of new users. On April 14th, existing Canadian users were relocated to "close-only mode," allowing them to withdraw funds but not engage in any new transactions. The decision to withdraw from the Canadian market was prompted by Canada's increasingly restrictive regulatory environment for cryptocurrency exchanges. Since the collapse of FTX, this trend has accelerated, and regulators are expected to iss ..read more

Initially, investors favored a rate hike by the Fed at its upcoming May meeting, but disappointing US data throughout the last week has cast doubt on the best course of action.  The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys revealed disappointment in employment and price levels. The outlook for the labor market also deteriorated, as the number of job openings in February fell to its lowest level in nearly two years. Also, the private sector added fewer jobs than anticipated in March.  As a result, market participants are divided over whether the Fed should implement one ..read more

Friday saw markets conclude what was a turbulent quarter, albeit an upbeat one for global equities. The recent banking turmoil shook Q1, though does appear to be receding. Despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and UBS’s rescue of Credit Suisse, Q1 ended well and truly on the front foot in the equities space. The Nasdaq 100 added an eye-popping 20.0%, Germany’s DAX jumped 12.0%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 7.5%. The dollar, however, was a notable victim in March (-2.3% [Dollar Index]) as market participants felt that the recent banking concerns would lead the Fed ..read more

Since its airdrop, the Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution Arbitrum Network ($ARB) has attracted considerable attention from cryptocurrency traders. It achieves high performance via bullish summaries.  Friday's trading volume for an arbitrum coin, listed on several exchanges, including Binance, OKX, and Bybit, was approximately $1.4 billion, according to the most recent market data. Its current market capitalization of approximately $1.7 billion indicates high volatility in the coming weeks. According to the aggregated data compiled by Defillama, Arbitrum ranks fourth in terms of total va ..read more

Weekly Review A lot happened last week. Despite the recent banking turmoil, three central banks raised their benchmark interest rates last week as they continue to attempt to tackle elevated inflation. In fact, the month of March witnessed five central banks hike rates, including the US Federal Reserve recently increasing its Fed Funds rate by another 25 basis points, a move lifting the Target Range to between 4.75% and 5.00% and marking its ninth consecutive increase since early 2022. Interestingly, with the latest announcement, investors received the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP ..read more

The Fed is especially concerned about service inflation, and Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that there had been no progress in that area when housing components were excluded. The core PCE price index, which the Fed pays more attention to, will also be closely watched, and any surprises could affect the chances of a rate hike in May. Consumer confidence, personal consumption, housing indicators, Q4 GDP, and the Chicago PMI are also important indicators to watch. Market sentiment remains fragile after recent bank failures, and investors may react negatively to strong data because it give ..read more