1. BEST: Sustained quality Paul Goldschmidt has been consistently excellent throughout his 14-year career. Nine seasons with a batting average of .290 or better, peaking at .321 in 2015. Seven years with more than 30 homers, topping out at a league-leading total of 36 in 2013. Four times reaching triple digits for runs batted in. And, of course, the winner of the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award in 2022. The case could be made, in fact, that Goldschmidt is the most consistently excellent hitter in the majors today. I established these four standards: 140 games played, 20 homers, 80 ..read more

1. BEST: Getting a jump The New York Yankees edged the Miami Marlins, 3-2, on April 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers wrapped up their 6-3 win over the Minnesota Twins about an hour later. The two victors thereby became the first teams in their respective leagues to reach double digits in the win column: the American League Yanks at 10-2, the National League Dodgers at 10-4. Recent history suggests that they should start getting ready for the playoffs. These were the first teams to get to 10 wins in the three previous post-pandemic seasons: 2021: AL Boston Red Sox on April 17 (with a 10-4 record ..read more

1. BEST: All-contact team Luis Arraez proves the value of contact, even in this free-swinging era of big-league baseball. Arraez, the second baseman for the Miami Marlins, posted the highest batting average in the majors last year, .354, winning the National League’s hitting crown. He earned the American League’s title the previous year as a member of the Minnesota Twins, hitting .316. So what’s his secret? It’s simple, really. He puts the bat on the ball. Arraez also led the majors last year with a contact rate (CT) of .941. CT is the percentage of at-bats in which the hitter put the ball in ..read more

Welcome to my new (and still evolving) format for Baseball’s Best (and Worst). This is the 452nd installment of my newsletter, which dates back to September 2020. I have generally followed a twice-weekly schedule — Tuesday and Friday — though I did deviate into an every-weekday plan during 2023’s regular season (April through September). Another season is upon us, so I’m once again trying something new. I’ll be releasing a new edition once a week, covering several topics in a single post. So let’s get to it. 1. BEST: Easiest teams to root for It’s very, very easy to root for the Los Angeles Do ..read more

There has been a certain monotony to my National League predictions in recent years. I picked the Los Angeles Dodgers to defeat the Chicago Cubs in the 2021 NL Championship Series, then lose to the Chicago White Sox in the World Series. Incorrect on both counts. The actual NL champions were the Atlanta Braves, who went on to defeat the Houston Astros for the world title. I chose the Dodgers again in 2022, predicting that they would subdue the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS and the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series. Another strikeout. The real-life finalists were the Philadelphia Phillies fro ..read more

Spring training is not yet over, but it’s already time for the postseason. I devoted the past few weeks to my forecasts for baseball’s 2024 regular season, using a system that matched each club’s record over the span of 2021-2023 against the corresponding three-year marks for 1,288 teams since free agency began in 1976. You can follow these links to see the resulting predictions for all six divisions: American League East American League Central American League West National League East National League Central National League West There’s only one thing left to do — extending my ..read more

I unveiled my top-to-bottom preseason rankings of the 15 American League teams on Tuesday. Do you care to guess today’s subject? The 15 National League clubs, of course. I have already issued my predictions for the NL’s three divisions. These are the likely champions: NL East: Atlanta Braves NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers My forecasts are based on comparisons of the league’s current clubs with the three-year records of 1,288 teams from the span between 1976 and 2021. I focused on the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each squad, the 50 teams from the past that mo ..read more

I spent the past six weeks unrolling my divisional predictions for the 2024 baseball season. Now it’s time to take the next step, moving up to the league level. Let’s start with the American League. Here, once again, are the anticipated champions of the AL’s three divisions: AL East: Toronto Blue Jays AL Central: Minnesota Twins AL West: Houston Astros My predictions, as I have previously explained, are based on a comparison of each current club with 1,288 major-league teams since the era of free agency began in 1976. I identified the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present-day club ..read more

It seems pointless to issue annual predictions for the National League West. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 10 of the past 11 divisional crowns. Their only failure, if you want to call it that, occurred in 2021, when they finished second despite a sparkling 106-56 record and advanced all the way to the NL Championship Series. So is it fair to assume that the Dodgers will continue to dominate the NL West in 2024? Absolutely. My history-based prediction system envisions another divisional crown in the club’s immediate future, and it will probably come easily. The Dodgers won the West by 16 gam ..read more

This story features a list that is admittedly a bit misleading. It’s a rundown of the 10 players in the National League West who posted the best statistics last season, specifically the best overall base values (OBV). Atop the list are three certified superstars, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres, followed by 2023’s NL Rookie of the Year, Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks. It seems logical that they would enter 2024 as the hottest players in the division. What could possibiy be misleading about that? Well, a couple of thi ..read more