Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs. Guest: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings Host: Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Emerging Markets – Global: 2025 Outlook - Stable but fragile, with looming credit risks ..read more

In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Market Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change. Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings ..read more

These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk.   Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: State-contingent debt instruments can aid debt restructuring, but can carry fiscal risks ..read more

Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond. Speakers: Rebecca Karnovitz, VP-SCO – ESG Research & Outreach at Moody’s Investors Service; Matt Kuchtyak, VP-Sustainable Finance at Moody’s Investors Service Host: Natasha Brereton-Fukui, SVP-Global ESG Research at Moody’s Investors Service ..read more

In this episode of Moody’s Talks – Emerging Markets Decoded, Gene Fang of the Sovereign team joins host Scott Phillips to discuss the outlook for credit conditions in China as it lifts Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, with a special focus on regional and local governments, the property sector, as well as potential implications for other emerging markets.  Related research: 2023 outlook negative as debt, contingent liabilities build, land sales remain weak Sustained slowdown in China will have large spillovers to the rest of APAC and beyond China Property Focus: Supportive poli ..read more

Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels. Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research: Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Governance is key to realising credit benefits for new hydrocarbon producers Sovereign – Sub-Saharan Africa: Institutional reforms are supporting creditworthiness for select sovereigns ..read more

Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments. Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research: Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments   ..read more

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth. Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research:  Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality will remain robust, even as earnings trajectory diverges Nonfinancial Companies – Southeast Asia Dollar bond issuance will regain momentum when US interest rates begin to fall Nonfinancial Comp ..read more

Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers. Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related research: Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals ..read more

Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies. Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research: Moody's Ratings takes rating actions on eight Turkish corporates following upgrade of Turkiye sovereign rating Government of Turkiye – B1 ..read more