Darling Buds of May, Revisited, Again
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
1w ago
Global stock markets are up about 10% this year. Never mind what they say about May, but is there ever a time when we should take some money off the table? After all, we have just received the entire expected annual return for equities in a mere 4 months, and last year wasn’t half bad either. The problem with getting out is that we don’t know at what level we can get back in. Sitting in cash and waiting for the markets to come our way can be very expensive if we are wrong. There is also a big difference between trading and investing. If you want to do the former, then you have to do many t ..read more
Visit website
Metal Motions
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
3w ago
Many of our windows are made of aluminium these days, much of the wiring in electrical equipment is made of copper and we use a lot of lead for plumbing. The point is, not much construction or manufacturing gets done if industry does not have these basic ingredients at hand. As such, the prices of these so-called base metals can be used as a lead indicator for economic activity. So, does the recent price surge of 20% in most of our favourite metals, suggest that output is picking up? The thing with commodities is that you never know if the cart is in front of or behind the horses. Moving a ..read more
Visit website
Investors Anonymous
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
1M ago
Then it all became clear. Inflation is proving stubborn and the longer interest rates stay at this level, the more damage it does to government, corporate and household budgets. The only saving grace was growth and we piled into the idea that AI is going to save the world, which came crashing down when Nvidia lost 15% last week. Rates and currencies are already back to pre-seven-rate-cuts levels, and if the S&P 500 does the same, it means another 20% of downside from here.    There is also an election coming up for 350 million people to determine the most powerful man in the w ..read more
Visit website
Gold run
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
1M ago
Gold has gained 20% in the last two months and reached an all-time high of 2400 last week. That’s great, because prior to that, Gold did next to nothing for more than a decade. People are clearly worried, there are wars, there was government buying, and something to do with Gold’s inverse relationship with real rates, which is no more. What the current price of Gold suggests apparently, is that central banks may not be able to cut rates to help the economy, because inflation remains too high. That’s not good, neither is the pending apocalypse, but remember the last thing we will be doing in ..read more
Visit website
Markets, Movies, and Music
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
1M ago
Remember October? The economy was sputtering, hope had become a dangerous thing (Shawshank Redemption, 1994) and the S&P 500 was on its longest monthly losing streak since March 2020, down 9.4% from the highs, standing at 4100. Then something very strange happened in the neighbourhood (Ghostbusters, 1984), and talk of seven rate cuts in 2024 made the rounds. In an instant meat was back on the menu (Lord of the Rings, 2013), oil prices fell to 68, the Dollar index plummeted to 100, and the biggest equities rally we have seen in decades ensued. Merry Christmas. The problem was that the g ..read more
Visit website
Elections
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
2M ago
Over the course of the next eighteen months, there are going to be three major elections on both sides of the Atlantic. First, it is likely going to be Trump versus Biden Part Two in a clash of very different political ideologies. The polls are one thing, the age of the candidates another, and who knows what else can happen until November? Either way, it’s difficult to see how any of this should affect what we watch on Netflix or search on Google with our iPhones, and technology stocks remain poised for growth. Sometime before January of next year, the British public will finally get to vote ..read more
Visit website
Catch A Falling Knife
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
2M ago
I suppose extreme distortion is what you get whenever you have the type of runs on markets that we have witnessed for quite some time now. However, when we see spreads like small caps to large caps, or emerging versus developed markets trading at multi-decade highs, you begin to wonder if this time truly is different. Certainly, it would be unlikely for companies such as Amazon or Google to ever lose 90% of their value again like they did when the dot-com bubble burst. The tech giants are producing too much cash, they control too much of our data, and they have diversified into many other ind ..read more
Visit website
Perspective
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
2M ago
There is only so much bandwidth in the human brain, which means we can only focus on a few things at a time. Remember, every decision we make has dozens, and maybe even hundreds of different underlying sub contexts. There are also feelings involved, instincts, and pure coincidence that can determine what we do, when we do, and who knows why we do the things we do anyway, we are irrational, after all. The thing is, it is easy to stress out. It is estimated that we make 35000 decisions every day. Some of them involve the seemingly mundane, such as what type of cheese to put on a sandwich ..read more
Visit website
Cryptos, Revisited, Again
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
2M ago
They’re back! Less than a year ago, we thought we had put the final nail in the coffin in all things that are cryptocurrencies [Cryptos, Revisited]. FTX had imploded, Coinbase was getting sued, and prices were down by more than two thirds for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Yet here we are, within touching distance of new all-time highs. All it took was a verdict from the SEC, the need for investment managers to diversify, and huge speculative demand that is increasingly driven by FOMO. Can it continue, and what is the intrinsic worth of this new asset class anyway, is hard to say. One thing is for sur ..read more
Visit website
Ex-Nvidia
Blu Family Office Blog
by Christian Armbruester
3M ago
There is nothing left to say about Nvidia, but what about the rest of the 55,280 stocks in the world? It’s a bit of a mixed bag for the rest of the Mega-caps. Amazon has not made any progress in three years, same for Google, and Microsoft may be fine, but Tesla is still down more than 50% from its highs. We did see the same thing in Meta once though, and it is now back to record highs. Bezos and Zucki did unload a few billion amongst friends as of late, which could be a sign of a top, but of course, super-yachts have become very expensive. Fact is, other investors also took some profits, to t ..read more
Visit website

Follow Blu Family Office Blog on FeedSpot

Continue with Google
Continue with Apple
OR