Q4 22 CPI and 2023 Australian economic outlook
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
2d ago
Q4 22 CPI was red hot in Australia and should see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lift the cash rate in February by 25bp to 3.35%. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the inflation data in detail and the implications for the RBA. The Australian economy is set to slow in 2023, although it is dependent on the policy path of the RBA. Gareth runs through what to watch for the rest of 2023.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which c ..read more
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Recession in advanced economies to encourage policy pause
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
1w ago
Our global economic growth forecasts have been upgraded in 2023 from 1.8% to 2.0% because of China’s early re-opening and Europe’s less severe recession. In this podcast Joseph Capurso and Kristina Clifton from our International Economics team talk to Belinda Allen, Senior Economist about the recession prediction and how central banks will need to decide when to stop lifting interest rates in 2023. A discussion on the outlook for the US, Canada, Europe, UK, China and Japan is also included.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global ..read more
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Implications of China’s reopening
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
2w ago
On our first podcast for 2023 Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talks to Carol Kong, Economist and Current Strategist about the reopening of China. Carol expects the reopening after close to three years of restrictions will bring forward the economic recovery, led by household consumption. However this will likely be in fits and starts due to chaotic preparation and a surge in covid cases. We expect labour shortages and intermittent supply chain issues, but these should be short lived.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Market ..read more
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Household Spending Intentions November 2022
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
1M ago
The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) index rose by 1.9%/mth in original terms in November 2022, to 118.2.  The increase was driven by a rise in spending on Transport (higher petrol prices), Retail (with consumers taking advantage of the sales) and Health & fitness.  This was partly offset by falls in Travel, Education and Motor vehicles. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast and the seasonal adjustment process undertaken to provide a better understanding of recent moves.   ------ DISCLAIM ..read more
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Vantage Point – 2023 Outlook
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
2M ago
In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the outlook for 2023 for both the global economy and the Australian economy. Stephen highlights that central banks have in 2022 focussed on ‘today’s problem’, ie inflation, but in 2023 will pivot to ‘tomorrow’s problem’, ie the looming economic slowdown. This pivot will impact on financial markets and could see central banks reverse course in late 2023 and into 2024.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers ..read more
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AgQ – Southern Exposure
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
2M ago
In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, speaks with Tobin Gorey, Agri-Strategist, about the latest AgQ, Southern Exposure (published 29/11).  The podcast includes discussion about the impact of floods in Eastern Australia, how commodity prices might interact with currencies and why you should also keep an eye on the weather in South America.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only ..read more
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Household Spending Intentions October 2022
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
3M ago
The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index rose by +0.9%/mth in October 2022, to 116.0.  The gains in October were impacted by higher prices in a number of categories.  Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast and dive into the detail including the seasonal influences at play in the retail category. The most significant moves in the HSI index in October were for Household services (after a decline in this category last month) and Retail, with half the gain in spending on the month in food – primarily ..read more
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Household Spending Intentions September 2022
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
4M ago
For September 2022 the CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index declined by 0.5%/mth.  The fall in September was the first monthly decline since April this year and is clearly beginning to show the effects on the household sector of the RBA’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle – with further impact expected in the months ahead. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in the latest podcast and delve into the reasons why Health & Fitness and Home Buying fell while Motor Vehicle, Entertainment and Travel rose.   ..read more
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A looming US recession
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
4M ago
Extremely high inflation combined with the FOMC’s strong commitment to restore price stability suggest it will likely induce a recession. In this podcast Carol Kong, International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss if the US is already in recession and the indicators to watch going forward. Importantly the US FOMC has a poor track record in managing a soft landing so a recession is a likely outcome. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au ..read more
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Household Spending Intentions August 2022
CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update Podcast
by cbaresearchpodcast
5M ago
In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest CommBank Household Spending Intentions results. The HSI Index lifted by 0.8% in August and was 15.1% higher on the year. The gains however were narrowly based in Motor vehicles, Home buying and Health & fitness. While discretionary interest rate sensitive sectors including Travel, Retail and Entertainment fell and we expect given the monetary policy tightening that has already been undertaken, with more to come, further soften in spending to occur.    ------ DISCLAIMER ..read more
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