In this edition of the podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the subdued results of the March CommBank Household Spending Insights series. An early Easter boosted Food & beverage goods spending and higher petrol prices boosted Transport spending. Recreation and Household goods spending was weak. The upcoming Budget and the latest RBA Minutes were also discussed in light of the impact on the consumer.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------   Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Resear ..read more

Media coverage in the past month have highlighted diverging views towards the Government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES).  The NVES will, for the first time in Australia’s history, set tailpipe emission targets for new light vehicles sold in Australia.  Indeed, the NVES will send a strong signal that Australia will prioritise low-emissions vehicles.  But what are the likely short-term impacts and how does it all work?  To answer these questions, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural Economist, sit down to discuss the findings of the la ..read more

Introduction to mandatory climate reporting in Australia could mean large businesses would need to estimate and report scope 3 emissions.  What are scope 3 emissions? And how do they differ by industry? To answer these questions, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics sit down to discuss their latest note ‘A guidebook to finding hot spots in Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions’.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers ..read more

February 2024 showed further evidence of a slowdown in consumer spending according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. A fall of 0.3%/mth occurred in February, with the peak in the index occurring in November 2023. There was evidence of a Taylor Swift, and other musical acts induced lift in spending with parts of Recreation and Hospitality seeing a strong increase. However other essential parts of the spending basket continue to lift, including Utilities and Health. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results and touch of the Q4 2 ..read more

The CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms over January 2024. The last three months of spending has been volatile, due to shifting summer spending patterns. Overall though the HSI shows spending running at 3.6%/yr, which when taking into account inflation and population growth suggests spending is weak on a real per capita basis. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results and other trends evident in the data and how we expect spending to be volatile over this period.   ------ DISCLAIMER ..read more

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong from the International and Sustainable Economics team discuss our updated outlook for the major economies and their central banks.  We now predict the FOMC will pull off a ‘soft landing’ in the US economy.  Japan, Canada, the Eurozone and the UK will skirt close to recession in 2024.  Meanwhile, China is expected to keep growing by ‘around 5%’.  We expect all central banks under our coverage, with the exception of Japan, to cut interest rates this year.    ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listeni ..read more

In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team run through a detailed outlook for the Australian economy over 2024. Gareth Aird, Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss GDP, the RBA, inflation, wages, the labour market, home prices, investment and housing construction. We expect GDP growth to run below trend in 2024 and for the unemployment rate to grind higher. Our base case is the first RBA rate cut in September which should support growth and will be a tailwind on home prices later in 2024. Inflation is also expected to cool over the year to be at the top of the RBA’s target ..read more

In our latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist discuss some of the opportunities and challenges for electric vehicle charging in Australia.  The build out of electric vehicle charging looks different within and outside the major capital cities.  Inside the major cities, home and work places will provide significant charging for EV drivers.  Renters and apartment dwellers are segments of the population that will rely on public electric vehicle charging.  Outside the major capital cities, th ..read more

In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the October edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The October results showed a fall of 1.0% in the month and annual growth sitting at 2.0%/yr. Weakness in Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods led the falls. While Utilities, Transport, Education, Insurance and Health all rose. In addition to the October moves, Stephen and Belinda discuss refinements to the HSI this month, removing some items that were investment, rather than spending in the Household Serv ..read more

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index for September 2023 rose by 0.5%/mth in seasonally adjusted terms, to 137.4.  This was the same monthly increase as the revised outcome for August. Gains in September were led by Hospitality (fast food and restaurants), Food & beverage goods (liquor stores), Transport (higher fuel prices) and Education.  It is worth noting, however, that 5 of the 12 spending categories saw declines in September, including Recreation (travel agents and ski fields), Utilities (government rebates at work), Health, Household services and Household g ..read more