Leer en Español This article includes 20 of the top development economists worldwide in 2024. These experts are shaping development economics in a diverse range of geographies and subject areas. Below are their main research areas, a brief biography, and, when available, their social media links. Follow them today or check out their publications for insights into their work and emerging market news.   1. Esther Duflo randomized control experiments | poverty alleviation | financial inclusion | social policy Duflo is a French-American economist who earned a Master’s degree at the Paris ..read more

Leer en Español In mid-April, Iran launched a barrage of rockets and drones at Israel—an unprecedented direct attack that marks a major escalation of tensions between the two perennial geopolitical enemies. Yet even as the external threats to Iran’s economy have increased, the country’s energy sector has appeared to go from strength to strength, with news reports highlighting that Iranian oil exports have recently risen to a six-year high. So against this two-sided backdrop, what do our panelists think is in store for Iran’s economy? Iranian oil exports to rise Our Consensus is for Iran’s o ..read more

Leer en Español Our Consensus Forecast for world economic growth in 2024 and 2025 is muted at below 3%—among the slowest rates in decades—due to demographic aging, softer population growth, China’s slowdown and a more fragmented global trade environment. But many smaller countries are projected to buck the trend, with our panelists even forecasting three economies to grow by double digits. Guyana GDP growth is set to be stellar, as is that of Macao, Palau and Niger. At FocusEconomics, we forecast 198 countries, with those not covered in our regional PDFs available via our online platform. O ..read more

Leer en Español Natural gas prices spiked in 2021–2022 to the highest levels since the financial crisis. They have since declined, but the bumpy ride for consumers of the fuel—households, businesses and investors—is far from over. The specter of wider regional wars in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East continues to threaten supply. And amid all this, the economies of gas giants Qatar and the United States have seen their LNG export volumes mushroom in recent years. In our latest special report, we polled leading market analysts on the outlook for the natural gas market over the next fi ..read more

Leer en Español Global monetary policy tightened considerably from 2021 to 2023, as central banks around the world looked to ward off elevated price pressures stemming from resurgent domestic demand and snarled-up supply chains. But interest rates peaked in the second half of last year, and now many are looking to the Fed rate, the ECB interest rate and other major banks’ policy rates to see when they will fall.   Switzerland leads the way On 21 March, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate from 1.75% to 1.50%, becoming the first major central bank to cut rates since th ..read more

Leer en Español The evolution of commodity prices over the next decade will be heavily determined by the green energy transition, which will be a boon for some commodities and reduce demand for others. To delve deeper into the crude oil outlook and metal price outlook for the decade ahead, you can download our latest special report on commodities, where we closely examine the role of the energy transition and other key demand and supply factors. Crude oil outlook: prices to fall but remain elevated As outlined in our special report, our panelists forecast the spot prices of Brent and WTI t ..read more

Leer en Español The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to put an end to its eight-year experiment with negative interest rates at either its next meeting on 18–19 March or—more likely—at the following meeting on 25–26 April. That is the view of almost all of the 18 economists polled by FocusEconomics. However, Bank of Japan monetary policy is likely to include only cautious rate rises; the Consensus among our panelists is for a total of 15 basis points of hikes by the end of 2024 and 30 basis points of hikes by the end of 2025.  The end of negative Japanese interest rates The BOJ’s decision ..read more

Leer en Español The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) made notable strides in the pre-pandemic decade thanks to favorable demographics, improving infrastructure and manufacturing industries, and surging foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, the Covid-19 pandemic sparked supply-chain disruptions and travel restrictions that hit industrial and tourism activity in the region. In 2022–2023, ASEAN GDP growth notably outpaced the global average, boosted by ample stimulus packages, the gradual recovery of tourism and efforts by multinational companies to diversify global supply cha ..read more

Leer en Español Global trade flows boomed in the 1990s and early 2000s, coinciding with a period of strong economic growth, the founding of the World Trade Organization, the rise of China and other East Asia economies as manufacturing hubs, and relative political calm following the fall of the Soviet Union. But momentum has slowed since, buffeted by factors such as the pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, war and protectionism; while from 1990 to 2008, global trade volumes rose 6% per year on average, growth slipped to just 3% in the 2010s. And the coming years look set to be no more ros ..read more

Leer en Español The ongoing El Niño weather pattern is set to restrain agricultural output in 2024, as it did last year, despite being less strong than initially feared. In addition, La Niña—the “inverse” of El Niño—has a 55% likelihood of developing in June–August, according to the U.S. weather service, further dampening primary sector production. This insight piece explores the evolution of commodity price forecasts given changing weather conditions.   The El Niño weather pattern drove up commodity prices in 2023:   Last year, the price of “soft” agricultural commoditi ..read more