We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-year low in the core measure, all but cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its hiking cycle. The result was a sharp sell-off in the dollar, which fell by more than 2% against its major peers. EUR/USD is trading at August highs ab ..read more

We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting that further rate hikes were probably unlikely. The FOMC struck an optimistic tone on US growth, although Powell expressed caution due to the increase in Treasury yields and a lag in policy transmission ..read more

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers that tempered expectations of more US rate hikes. However, the dollar has shown broad strength in the past week, partly due to stronger US inflation figures. The euro is hovering just above 10-month lows, r ..read more

 September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations.  On the flip side, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, keeping rates unchanged, although indicating in its ‘dot plot’ that it foresees one final hike by year-end. These hawkish communic ..read more

In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP,  PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour market and impressive growth indicators. In contrast, the Euro and Sterling have fallen from their highs against USD. Last week's business activity PMI data from the UK and EZ have been underwhelming a ..read more

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 1. Understanding exchange rates 2. Floating systems 3. Fixed exchange rates 4. Impact of Central Banks We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: ht ..read more

August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss. Over the past few weeks, headlines have been dominated by the meetings of the G4 central banks, namely the U.S. Fed ..read more

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis. Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021. The sell-off in the USD can be attributed to increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt interest ..read more

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 1. Explanation of GDP and its importance. 2. Methods to calculate GDP. 3. Components of the Expenditure Approach. 4. Impact of GDP on foreign exchange. 5. Timely indicators and labor market ..read more

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 1. Explanation of GDP and its importance. 2. Methods to calculate GDP. 3. Components of the Expenditure Approach. 4. Impact of GDP on foreign exchange. 5. Timely indicators and labor market ..read more