The dollar has had a wretched summer thus far, as investors fret over the possibility of a US recession amid signs of a cooling in the country’s labour market. In this week’s FX Talk episode, our analysts outline whether these economic slowdown concerns are overdone, or indeed justified.  They also look ahead to a highly important period of trading in financial markets. This includes breaking down the possible implications of the August nonfarm payrolls report on Federal Reserve interest rates, while discussing the potential impact of the upcoming Harris-Trump televised debate on currenc ..read more

The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank’s statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following the decision. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, but chair Powell firmly hinted at a cut at the next meeting in September, which now appears set in stone. The Bank of Japan also hiked interest rates this week, but what doe ..read more

The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on most currencies globally so far this month following the miss in the June US inflation report. But is a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve now set in stone? And what could a Trump election victory mean for markets? We answer these que ..read more

2024 looks set to go down in the history books as one of the most significant years in global politics in modern times, with almost half of the world’s population to take to the polls in some capacity. A historic rematch between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looks highly likely when Americans take to the polls in November. As things stand, markets are almost entirely in the dark as to who will come out on top, and it is also similarly unclear as to which party will control the two houses that make up Congress. The UK general election also looks set to take p ..read more

The FX market has been sparked back into life in the past fortnight. A bout of strong data out of the US economy, notably the March inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports, has led markets to push back their timetable for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s missile attack on Israel has also triggered safe-haven flows into the dollar, which has jumped to its strongest position against its major peers since November.  But, when do we see the Fed easing policy this year, if at all? And what could an escalation in the Middle East conflic ..read more

March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting ahead of expectations. The dollar has rallied against most currencies globally, despite the Fed indicating to markets that it sees three US rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Bank of England delivered a ‘dovish hold’, hinting that lower UK rates coul ..read more

The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank’s June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile, has been rather mixed, with a weak nonfarm payrolls report offset by hotter-than-expected inflation data.  The coming week looks set to be a highly eventful one, with several major central banks announcing their latest policy decisions. Could ..read more

In this week’s episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in the common bloc has ground to a near standstill, communications from Governing Council members have been hawkish, and a change in rates in March seems highly unlikely. Lastly, we discuss our view on the Chilean peso - one of the worst performing cur ..read more

The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain’s GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK’s disappointing growth performance influence Bank of England monetary policy? Elsewhere, Japan’s economy also fell into recession, adding further misery to the yen. The dollar, meanwhile, remains the best performing major currency in the world, as a hotter-than-expected U ..read more

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover: 0.57 - Basics of Exchange Rates 2:50  - Bid and Offer Rates 3.57 - Types of Analysis 5.36 - FX Trading and Orders We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the p ..read more