At the moment, the key theme in currencies is an improvement in risk sentiment and an appreciation in high-risk currencies, at the expense of lower-risk ones, such as the US dollar. The USD index has hit a June 2022 low and has fallen more than 10% since October, as the Federal Reserve slows its hiking cycle and global recession fears abate. Among the better performers, currencies closely linked to China have been doing well. In the G10, the Australian dollar has been doing particularly well. Among emerging market currencies, some Asian currencies, notably the Thai baht, have seen a strong per ..read more

What can we expect this year? The narrative in 2022 was much about central bank responses to rising inflation rates. Will that remain the case this year? Or will these central banks begin calling time on their tightening cycles. And what about the global economy? Are recession indeed on the way? Or will we just see modest downturns in growth?  In summary: what are the main themes to look out for in currencies in 2023? Our Market Analysts will tell you everything about it.  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk &n ..read more

China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week.  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!  ..read more

If you’re following financial markets at the moment, there really is very little chance to catch your breath. Since our last episode, the market sentiment has improved and investors dialed back expectations for US rate hikes, weighed significantly on the dollar.  Meanwhile, the October US inflation report is much softer than expected. The big question is: What does that mean for the US dollar? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!  ..read more

In our final episode of FX Talk of 2020, our market analysts discuss what to expect from the FX market in 2021 and which currencies will under and overperform next year, and why.  ..read more

According to the BoE, further increases in interest rates may be required to bring inflation back down to target, but the bank stated that the peak in rates would be '‘lower than priced into financial markets''. On the UK economy, the BoE once again struck a sombre note. In its statement, the MPC spoke of a ‘very challenging’ outlook for the UK economy, mentioning the tightening in financial conditions since August. The committee also warned that the economy may already be in recession, and that this could last until the middle of 2024, which would be the longest recession since records began ..read more

Last time we spoke about the reaction in the pound to the budget and the potential impact of the tax cuts on the economy. Since then, we have seen one of the most dramatic U-turns in British political history. Most of the tax cuts (around 80%) that were announced have now been reversed.  How have markets reacted? Sterling posted decent gains and UK bond yields have stabilized. Big question for us: What’s next for the pound? Is this U-turn a green light to a sterling rally, or do downside risks remain?  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podca ..read more

What are the economic consequences of the mini-budget? Since the initial sell-off, the GBP has recovered in the past few sessions. What are the reasons for the recovery in the pound?  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!  ..read more

What are the economic consequences of the mini-budget? Since the initial sell-off, the GBP has recovered in the past few sessions. What are the reasons for the recovery in the pound?  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!  ..read more

We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Since our last episode, the US dollar has rallied against almost every other G10 currency, with the sole exception of the Swiss franc, which has benefitted from the hawkish turn from the Swiss National Bank. The main theme in markets has been one of risk aversion, as investors and economists pencil in weaker global growth during the remainder of 2022 and into next year.  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps ..read more