Uncertainty in crisis bargaining with multiple policy options
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Brenton Kenkel, Peter Schram
1w ago
Abstract Formal models commonly characterize interstate bargaining as dichotomous, ending in either war or peace. But there are many forms of coercion—including supporting rebel groups, sanctions, and cyberattacks. How does the availability of intermediate policy options affect the incidence of war and peace? We present an analysis of crisis bargaining models with intermediate policy options that challenges conventional results about the relationship between private information and negotiation outcomes. In our “flexible-response” modeling framework, unlike in traditional crisis bargaining mode ..read more
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Simón Rodríguez and the sentimental roots of social republicanism
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Alejandro Castrillon
1w ago
Abstract In this article, I claim that Simón Rodríguez, a 19th-century Venezuelan thinker, used and reconfigured Jean-Jacques Rousseau's understanding of amour-propre to construct a new political foundation for Latin America. He sought to channel it and other sentiments toward productive ends with a social education. In doing so, Rodríguez departs from Rousseau while still addressing the latter's political concerns regarding the benefits of egalitarian republicanism and the pitfalls of civilizational progress. Instead of accepting political models from antiquity, Rodríguez conceives of an egal ..read more
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Expedience and experimentation: John Maynard Keynes and the politics of time
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Stefan Eich
1w ago
Abstract John Maynard Keynes is often seen as the quintessential thinker of the short run, calling on us to focus our intellectual and material resources on the present. This poses an intriguing puzzle in light of Keynes's own influential speculations about the future. I use this seeming tension as an opening into Keynes's politics of time, both as a crucial dimension of his political thought and a contribution to debates about political temporality and intertemporal choice. Keynes's insistence on radical uncertainty translated into a skepticism toward intertemporal calculus as not only morall ..read more
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Losing legitimacy: The challenges of the Dobbs ruling to conventional legitimacy theory
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by James L. Gibson
3w ago
Abstract Extant research has established that displeasure with a Supreme Court ruling typically has negligible consequences for institutional support, largely because, as legitimacy theory's positivity bias explains, judicial decisions are invariably delivered with the accoutrements of legitimizing symbols. The Court's ruling in Dobbs, abrogating a federal constitutional right to abortion services, may challenge legitimacy theory because displeasure with the ruling seems so widespread and intense. This research aims to determine whether the ruling lessened the Court's legitimacy. The general c ..read more
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The people think what I think: False consensus and unelected elite misperception of public opinion
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Alexander C. Furnas, Timothy M. LaPira
3w ago
Abstract Political elites must know and rely faithfully on the public will to be democratically responsive. Recent work on elite perceptions of public opinion shows that reelection-motivated politicians systematically misperceive the opinions of their constituents to be more conservative than they are. We extend this work to a larger and broader set of unelected political elites such as lobbyists, civil servants, journalists, and the like, and report alternative empirical findings. These unelected elites hold similarly inaccurate perceptions about public opinion, though not in a single ideolog ..read more
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Victim or Threat? Shipwrecks, Terrorist Attacks, and Asylum Decisions in France
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Mathilde Emeriau
1M ago
Abstract Tragic events such as terrorist attacks have been shown to influence voters’ policy preferences, but less is known about whether such events also affect actual immigration policy. In this study, I bring new evidence to this question by examining whether migrant shipwrecks and terrorist attacks affected asylum decisions in France during the refugee crisis of 2015–16. I find that asylum officers were more likely to approve an individual's refugee application if a shipwreck has recently been in the news than they are otherwise. Yet they were less likely to grant refugee status to asylum ..read more
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Issue Information ‐ Table of Contents
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
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1M ago
American Journal of Political Science, Volume 68, Issue 1, Page 1-4, January 2024 ..read more
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Issue Information
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
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4M ago
American Journal of Political Science, Volume 67, Issue 4, Page 829-832, October 2023 ..read more
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At Any Cost: How Ukrainians Think about Self‐Defense Against Russia
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Janina Dill, Marnie Howlett, Carl Müller‐Crepon
4M ago
Abstract How do populations facing external aggression view the costs and benefits of self-defense? In Western countries, war support has been shown to follow cost–benefit calculations, resembling the moral principle of proportionality. A categorical position, in contrast, means supporting self-defense regardless of the costs. To evaluate which moral principle populations facing external aggression follow, we conducted a conjoint experiment with 1,160 Ukrainians in July 2022. We examine support for different strategies Ukraine could pursue against Russia, which vary regarding the political aut ..read more
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The Necessity of Moving Averages in Dynamic Linear Regression Models
Wiley Online Library » American Journal of Political Science
by Garrett N. Vande Kamp, Soren Jordan
5M ago
Abstract Consensus from the debate over lagged dependent variables in dynamic linear regression models advises that including enough lags of the dependent and independent variables will fully model autocorrelation in the error term. But this approach fails to account for a long-neglected source of autocorrelation in the error term—moving averages—which cannot be represented with a finite number of lags. Approximating moving averages results in either inconsistent or inefficient estimates of relevant quantities of interest, a claim demonstrated here via Monte Carlo simulations and three empiric ..read more
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