The 2024 ADPI/ABI Annual Conference starts next week and will likely move the dairy markets. What does Jacoby predict for dairy production and demand for 2024? Join Ted Jacoby III and our guests Jacob Menge, Vice President of Risk Management and Trade Strategy; Joshua White, Vice President of Dairy Ingredients; Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Dairy Ingredient Trading; Gus Jacoby, President of Fluid Dairy Ingredients and Dairy Support; Joe Maixner, National Sales Manager of Dairy Ingredients; and Ted Jacoby Jr. We discuss: Jacoby’s predictions vs. results for 2024 YTD Factors impacting prices ..read more

This is the first podcast episode in our quarterly Understanding Export series. Today’s special guest is Fernando Anaya, Director General at DILAC. DILAC offers powdered dairy products and has a 27-year track record within the Mexican dairy industry. Our Jacoby team includes Ted Jacoby, President; Yara Morales, Director of Sales for Mexico and Latin America; and Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Dairy Ingredient Trading at T.C. Jacoby and Company, Inc. Today’s episode discusses the Mexican consumer market for dairy products. Fernando shares his take on how drought, exchange rates, and political ..read more

Este es el primer episodio de nuestro serie trimestral Entendiendo Exportaciones. El invitado especial de hoy es Fernando Anaya, Director General en DILAC. DILAC ofrece productos lácteos en polvo y tiene un historial de 27 años dentro de la industria láctea mexicana. Nuestro equipo de Jacoby incluye a Ted Jacoby, Presidente; Yara Morales, Directora de Ventas para México y América Latina; y Diego Carvallo, Director de Comercio de Ingredientes Lácteos en T.C. Jacoby and Company, Inc. En el episodio de hoy se discute el mercado consumidor mexicano de productos lácteos. Fernando comparte su perspe ..read more

The T.C. Jacoby team got together to talk about a two-part phenomenon that we’re expecting to wrinkle the dairy markets over the course of the next year or two. 2023 through ’25, plant capacity expansions total 9% of all milk production. But heifers are short, milk production was flat in 2023 and we expect it to be flat (or close to it) in 2024. So who will be left out, short on milk? Or will dairies pull off a production miracle? Director of Milk Marketing Greg Scheer, “Semi-retired member of the board” Don Street, Dairy Ingredients Vice President Josh White and Dairy Ingredients Sales Associ ..read more

T3, Josh and Tristan sat down with Jeroen Lemmens, who joined Cefetra Group’s dairy team in Singapore after spending multiple years trading dairy in China. We’d spent months looking for the right person to talk to about China’s dairy buying habits past, present and future. The conversation gave some color to the disappearance of Chinese demand for American milk and some backbone to the hope that some of that demand will return in 2024. Discussion ranged from trade agreements with New Zealand and the state of the hog market to domestic macroeconomic factors like China’s property market and indu ..read more

Our team is (mostly) bearish right now. We’re seeing signs that recent Class III price rises aren’t supported by demand, and the lack of Asian demand for powders continues. In the August episode of The Milk Check, we discuss a recent LinkedIn post Ted made and whether there’s any strong case against bearishness when looking at dairy prices. Butter continues to feel like an exception, and Joe Maixner wants to go “on the record” with a bullish outlook for the rest of the year but also into 2024. The international outlook, according to Diego Carvallo, couldn’t get much more bearish. Ted: Welcome ..read more

On June 12, we brought a group together to share perspectives on the dairy markets, along with thoughts on what we might expect moving forward. And there wasn’t a strong consensus. Josh thinks supply-side factors point to a relatively quick supply-side response plying out over months that produces some price upticks to offer some cover in the short term. Ted Jr. thinks price recovery will be slow and has his own counterarguments against the expectation of further production slowdowns. Jake feels bullish about spot prices on every product right now, but bearish in relation to current futures pr ..read more

On Episode 57 of The Milk Check, Tara Vander Dussen joins us to talk about sustainable agriculture. She is an environmental scientist and fifth-generation dairy farmer known online as the New Mexico Milkmaid. We celebrate some of the regenerative agricultural practices that people often take for granted, and Tara walks us through some of progress she’s seeing in New Mexico dairies today. We discuss dairy’s image problem and the steps folks can take to help consumers see dairy in a greener light. Our favorite quote from Tara: “Agriculture sees a waste in their stream, they’re going to find a wa ..read more

You don’t need technical analysis to tell you that dairy prices are low right now. But stocks are still high, which suggests demand is weak. The questions are: What gives? And when? In this episode of The Milk Check, we talk through the feeling that our current bearishness points to a strong price rebound later in 2022 or early 2023. But not before Trading Strategy Director Jacob Menge takes us through technical charts on dairy products and macroeconomic indicators like copper and the dollar index. In the end, Jake suggests that a “max pain” moment would be necessary to kick off a violent upwa ..read more

The USDA’s milk production report for December surprised us and sparked some interesting discussion in a recent mass balance and charting meeting. We thought it made sense to pull back the curtain and share some of that discussion on the podcast. What does the USDA revision of cow numbers tell us? Should we worry about falling Texas cow numbers with cheese plants coming online this year? Director of Global Strategy Don Street talks through his expectations for Q1 milk production in the wake of recent numbers, which leads to some back-and-forth about the adverse economics facing producers now ..read more