Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JLnpSl It has been an interesting week in the market, but as you will see in the first paragraph below it may seem like nothing happened whatsoever. That is more common than people think. Today we visit the state of the U.S. dollar, the “safe haven” of bitcoin, the politics of oil, the nature of contrarian investing, and more. Just a lot of easy-bite tidbits to edify you this beautiful spring weekend. And before I remind you that a new and improved Dividend Cafe is coming any day, jump on in, to this Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3w8tK6R Somewhat of a repeat of yesterdays market action with a positive morning failing to hold momentum and falling off into the close in more consolidation in markets around rates. We did eek out a small gain on the Dow, but the SP500 closed slightly lower for the fifth session in a row. The 2-YR Treasury is back to YTD highs at just under 5% and 10-YR was up 5 bps today to 4.63%. For what was on the docket today in the economic calendar, mostly good news. Jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing data all modestly ahead of expectations, but it ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TX5X1I What started off as a positive trading morning, slid negative as the day progressed. Powell’s comments yesterday were debated as to whether he took his ‘Pivot’ from October back. Not to worry, because first, I don’t think he did take it back and two rate cuts are still priced in to Fed futures, and second, as I mentioned yesterday there is enough in the economy that is good at this time to withstand a delayed move lower in rates by a few months. The Fed’s beige book out today supported that general positive undertone in the economy which helped us off ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q5001u A mixed day of trading between positive and negative all morning and right into the market close with the Dow slightly higher and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just below fair value. Rates continue their move higher, with the 10-year up 4 bps and now at the 4.66% level. So aside from what so far has been a tougher start to the second quarter, a few things to keep in mind: Rates and Fed futures have reset higher based just as much on stronger-than-expected good things in the economy, such as earnings growth, GDP, and employment, as they have on inflat ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q2J5g8 Against Doomsdayism Where this Iran-Israel atrocity goes from here, what should and should not have been done, what and should not be done, what it will mean for markets and oil prices – all these things notwithstanding, the winner of the weekend appears to be anti-missile defense systems, first pursued by the Reagan administration in the 1980’s. The ability for this technology across multiple mediums to bat nearly a thousand in putting down missiles and drones coming in hot to do unspeakable damage is, well, vindicating. The specifics of the various t ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ I cannot tell you how much fun it is for me to spend three hours on a Friday morning reading research. Reading when it is dark outside is the single activity that brings me the most joy, and I love the inspiration it fostered for today's Dividend Cafe Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ A modestly positive day in markets overall today on some better-than-expected PPI numbers following yesterday’s selloff on CPI. So what one-day taketh, another giveth back (well, not quite). The Producer Price Index numbers showed a gain of just .2% for the month on headline when .3% was expected, and the Core PPI only gained .1% for the month. The takeaway is PPI is just not confirming a reacceleration in inflation on the wholesale side, which is a positive. We unpacked yesterday’s CPI numbers pretty well, I thought, but I am sharing this chart from o ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aKgDaL We traded mostly lower the entire day today but then rallied back to fair value the last hour or so of trading. Tomorrow we have CPI out, and with a lack of other meaningful economic data today and right before earnings season heats up later this week, markets were mixed in anticipation. Bonds did rally across the curve giving back some of the back up in rates we have seen the past few sessions with the 10-year down 6bps. With earnings season set to start this Friday, a quick recap of where expectations lie: 3% revenue growth, 5% earnings growth on the ..read more

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aMHEug Economic Front The primary news of the weekend was the 303k new jobs created in March, up by 89k over expectations. A full 232k of that came from the private sector. The two prior months were revised upwards by 22k. The household survey was up huge, as well. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Construction was solid (39k new j obs), and leisure and hospitality led the way, with private education and health care strong as well. The annual gain in wages is +4.1%, and the average hours worked went up to 34.4 (had been 34.3). Links mentioned in this episod ..read more

Today's Post - The stock market dropped this week and it has given me a chance to write a Dividend Cafe about one of my favorite topics – the crucial importance of predicting the future, reading the tea leaves, and all that good stuff. I have strong opinions about people’s talent in such projections and the relevance of such to one’s long-term financial success. So today we are going to just have at it and talk about this week’s market volatility and what it means to you. Some of you are going to be really, really disappointed (if I did my job right). Jump on in, to the Dividend Cafe. Links me ..read more