By Tobias Adrian Market sentiment has deteriorated since earlier this year amid still elevated financial vulnerabilities and mounting concerns about risks to inflation. Amid the prolonged and painful pandemic, risks to global financial stability have remained contained—so far. But with economic optimism fading, and with financial vulnerabilities intensifying, this is a time for careful policy calibration. To an unprecedented degree, the world’s central banks, finance ministries, and international financial institutions have asserted—for a year and a half—policy support for economic growth. Now ..read more

By Vitor Gaspar, Paulo Medas, John Ralyea, and Elif Ture عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  The COVID-19 crisis has devastated people’s lives, jobs, and businesses. Governments have taken forceful measures to cushion the blow, totaling a staggering $12 trillion globally. These lifelines have saved lives and livelihoods. But they are costly and, together with sharp falls in tax revenues owing to the recession, they have pushed global public debt to an all-time high of close to 100 percent of GDP. With many workers still unemployed, small businesses struggling, and 80‑90 ..read more

By Kristalina Georgieva, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, and Rhoda Weeks-Brown عربي, Español, Français, 日本語, Русский  The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed debt levels to new heights. Compared to end-2019, average 2021 debt ratios are projected to rise by 20 percent of GDP in advanced economies, 10 percent of GDP in emerging market economies, and about 7 percent in low-income-countries. These increases come on top of debt levels that were already historically high. While many advanced economies still have the capacity to borrow, emerging markets and low-income countries face much tighter limits ..read more

Martin Mühleisen, Vladimir Klyuev, Sarah Sanya عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  The coronavirus crisis is a crisis like no other, and for emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), it has triggered a policy response like no other, both in scope and magnitude. Despite their diversity, and in some cases, strained resources, this large group of countries—consisting of emerging markets and low-income countries—have bolstered the provision of health services and extended unprecedented support to households, firms, and financial markets. While limited policy space has ..read more

By Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aasim M. Husain September 12, 2017 Versions in ربي (Arabic), 中文 (Chinese), Español (Spanish), Français (French),  日本語  (Japanese), Русский (Russian) Filling up at a gas station in California: demand for oil could plummet with the rise of renewable energy (Xinhua/Newscom) A transportation revolution is underway that could completely transform the oil market in the coming decades. When oil prices suddenly halved from over $100 a barrel in 2014, our IMF study concluded that supply-side factors such as the emerge ..read more

by Vitor Gaspar  (Versions: عربي, 中文, Français, Русский, and Español) The world economy is experiencing important transitions and associated uncertainties. Commodity prices have fallen sharply, with adverse consequences for exporting countries. China’s rebalancing and the prospect of U.S. interest rate increases are having important and costly spillover effects on other economies. And these and other factors are posing important fiscal challenges, especially for emerging markets. Indeed, since our assessment in April, we have seen a significant deterioratio ..read more

By Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto (Version in Español) “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” With these words Charles Dickens opens his novel “A Tale of Two Cities”. Winners and losers in a “tale of two commodities” may one day look back with similar reflections, as prices of metals and oil have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks, months and years. This blog seeks to explain how demand — but also supply and financial market conditions — are affecting metals prices. We will show some contrast with oil, where supply is the major factor. Stay tuned for a deeper analy ..read more

By iMFdirect This year’s IMF Annual Meetings are going on the road…to Lima, Peru.  All the big debates will focus on economics, finance, inequality, financial inclusion, emerging markets, commodities and many more. Since you’ve been reading gossip magazines at the beach busy this summer, we thought you might like a handy refresher on some of our blogs in recent months about Latin America. Making Monetary Policy Decisions in the Dark From Windfall to Windmill: Harnessing Asia’s Dynamism for Latin America Financial Stability Committees: Learning from the Experts Raising Long ..read more

By Antoinette M. Sayeh and Abebe Aemro Selassie If, as has been observed, demography is destiny, this will be the African century. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are on the cusp of a demographic transition—the years when the share of young and old in the population declines and those in working age range (15-64 years) increases. Elsewhere, this transition has generally been accompanied by higher savings, incomes, and economic growth. Our latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa looks at how the transition might play out and the implications for economic policies ..read more

By Yingyuan Chen, David Jones and Sanjay Hazarika (Versions in 中文 and deutsch) Global financial markets traditionally take their cue from the United States. Unexpected Fed rate hikes have unsettled global markets in the past. The entire global financial system threw a tantrum when then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke merely suggested in May 2013 that the end to bond-buying and other policies could soon begin. However for the past year, the gears of global markets seem to have been thrown into reverse — it is German government bonds, known as Bunds, rather than U.S. bonds, known as Tre ..read more