TD removing all auto-trading newsletters
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
After a long relationship with TD Ameritrade, the broker has decided to cease its auto-trade operations this year.  This has been rumored for a while as their desk has not been as engaged as they had in the past.   In 2010 when I was running CycleSpreads, we did not have to do any marketing or promotion as our customers would naturally flow to us from our brokerage partners.  Today, that’s a different story and it definitely has a material impact on operating a business like this.  I will continue operating the blog and service but it may take a different direction in ..read more
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GLD post mortem 1/29
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
Initially we were looking for gold to break out of its trading range and saw that opportunity on the 21st with 2 notable features: a bullish enveloping candle and a bounce off critical support.  For this trade, we were simply looking for the market to reach 1882, where the 50% retracement of the overall down move was. As we all saw, we never reached that level until today when fell just short of reaching it.  Of course, the theta part of our trade had already been damaged by the fact that the market was range bound for the past 10 days, so coming up a bit short of the target wasn’t ..read more
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The current state of SPX and GLD
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
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2020: The Year of Alpha
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
As we close the door on 2020, we had radical change, perhaps even more than anticipated at the beginning of the year.  If we think back, we knew at the beginning of 2020 we had a “heavy hand” in the form of fed intervention, inhibiting volatility and goosing the market at the same time.  Post virus, that scenario changed in some disconcerting ways, not inclusive of the health risks we’ve all been sharing. First, we had the market going up/sideways at the same time volatility increased this fall.  In retrospect, this was definitely a contributing factor to the very choppy perform ..read more
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US dollar weakness and the markets
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
This content is locked Login To Unlock The Content! Register Lost your password? The post US dollar weakness and the markets appeared first on Wilson Speculations ..read more
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Post Mortem on Losing SPY trade
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
So we finally got a break above resistance yesterday as reflected by the red line in the chart below.  But as so often been in the case over the past few months, we failed to rally back to the previous high as we had been doing so consistently earlier in the year.  Frustrating, but a part of trading.  I attribute most of this to the fact that the bulls who plowed into reversal trades at support are too scared to hold on until the prior high out of fear of an outright selloff.  In this particular case they bailed out .78 and never looked back as the market really nosedived a ..read more
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Lack of Activity and the Causes
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
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Time Horizons, Risk, and the Cost of Waiting
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
I know some of you are impatient for trades.  This is probably the biggest conundrum in operating a newsletter.  It’s hot money- people come and go either because they get in just before a couple of losses, or because I am not active enough for their liking.  In a recent interview, legendary hedge manager Jeff Gundlach opined on this very topic as he had to reduce his time frame to accommodate his clients who were impatient for returns.  The link to his interview is here  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcEj4XkLn5w. For my trading, there really isn’t any shorter time f ..read more
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S&P post election analysis
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
As you can see from the chart below, we broke above the potential sideways pattern I was monitoring, suggesting that wave c completed the correction from the beginning of September.  The violent gap up move was followed by a steep decline into the trendline and that triggered another ‘buy former resistance’ event.  We’re in rarified air here as the SPX looks like it’s bound for 4000. The volatility index has dropped dramatically since the election, adding credibility to the subsequent rally.  Still, we are a far cry from 2019 when it seemed we were locked into an era of permane ..read more
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Back to the Bull
Wilson Speculations
by Chris Wilson
2y ago
This content is locked Login To Unlock The Content! Register Lost your password? The post Back to the Bull appeared first on Wilson Speculations ..read more
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