Some really interesting statistics for Chester County PA that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County PA temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty and or needed post hoc adjustment for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970 ..read more

I am going to go ahead and kick this off with Hansen's latest monthly update. What he is saying is that the 1.5 C threshold will effectively get breached in 2024 and say that way. https://mailchi.mp/caa/groundhog-day-another-gobsmackingly-bananas-month-whats-up Figure 4 includes our expectation that continuing record monthly temperatures will carry the 12-month temperature anomaly to +1.6-1.7°C. During subsequent La Ninas, global temperature may fall back below 1.5°C to about 1.4±0.1°C, but the El Nino/La Nina mean will have reached 1.5°C, thus revealing that the 1.5°C global warming ceiling h ..read more

I am as interested in arctic climate change as anyone, but a lot of discussion goes on without much reference to actual data. (Note, this material is reposted from a thread on Net-weather. Today (Dec 27, 2023) I am republishing the thread ere on American Weather. If you want to post comments, perhaps you could wait until after 7 p.m. EST when I hope to be finished posting. There will be about 30-40 posts.  Cambridge Bay is located on the southern coast of Victoria Island, a huge and largely barren arctic island about the same size as Great Britain, and located between 68 and 73 ..read more

This is a major reason why the Dust Bowl record highs in this region haven’t been able to be exceeded with global warming causing record highs everywhere else. Our land practices during the Dust Bowl were responsible for greatly amplifying the drought and heat. So the expansion of corn production has created a localized cooling in these areas relative to the rest of the world.   https://www.science.org/content/article/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather   The United States’s Corn Belt is making its own weather By Kimberly HickokFeb. 16, 2018 , 12:05 PM The Great Pla ..read more

Toronto has had a weather observatory for over 180 years now, having started up on March 1st, 1840. The New York City Central Park series goes back to 1869. I also link to a weather journal maintained by Alexis Caswell at Providence RI from 1831 to 1860.  The material in this thread is being copied over to American Weather Forum from its current location, the Net-weather forum in the UK. There will be one limitation in bringing the material here, namely, a smaller limit on attachment sizes will mean that links to supporting excel files created by myself will not be possible here. For thos ..read more

    Research Links Climate Change to Lazier Jet Stream, Leading to Extreme Weather BY COLUMBIA CLIMATE SCHOOL |JULY 14, 2023    Comments Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper atmosphere, typically occurring around 30,000 feet, and blowing west to east. Their normal flows lead to week-to-week weather variations, modulated in the mid-latitudes by ridges and troughs in the jet stream. A high-pressure ridge, for example, produces clear, warmer weather conditions; a trough is typically followed by stormy conditions. Together, these for ..read more

This is a major reason why the Dust Bowl record highs in this region haven’t been able to be exceeded with global warming causing record highs everywhere else. Our land practices during the Dust Bowl were responsible for greatly amplifying the drought and heat. So the expansion of corn production has created a localized cooling in these areas relative to the rest of the world.   https://www.science.org/content/article/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather   The United States’s Corn Belt is making its own weather By Kimberly HickokFeb. 16, 2018 , 12:05 PM The Great Pla ..read more

This is a major reason why the Dust Bowl record highs in this region haven’t been able to be exceeded with global warming causing record highs everywhere else. Our land practices during the Dust Bowl were responsible for greatly amplifying the drought and heat. So the expansion of corn production has created a localized cooling in these areas relative to the rest of the world.   https://www.science.org/content/article/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather   The United States’s Corn Belt is making its own weather By Kimberly HickokFeb. 16, 2018 , 12:05 PM The Great Pla ..read more

Greetings to our Climate Innovators,   We are thrilled to present you with this exciting opportunity that holds immense potential. The Global Climate Innovation Center (GCIC) proudly announces the launch of the Global Climate Innovator Challenge, a program dedicated to realizing our ambitious 1.5°C climate target. If you are passionately committed to driving climate innovation and offering sustainable solutions, we wholeheartedly invite you to seize this momentous occasion and submit your application.   To apply as Innovator, simply register your interest at our&n ..read more

With the onset of El Nino and the possibility that 2023 could be a new record in some datasets I thought it might be nice to start a thread dedicated to the 2023 global average temperature. As of this posting the Kalshi prediction market for a new record according to GISTEMP is trading at $0.31.  https://kalshi.com/markets/gtemp/global-average-temperature-deviation The Brown & Caldiera 2020 method is showing about a 50% probability of a new record for 2023 with a 76% chance of such for 2024. https://www.weatherclimatehumansystems.org/global-temperature-forecast My own machine learnin ..read more