There are three ways we can sell or scale out a position Sell early or in other words sell into strength Sell late or in other words sell into weakness Sell at the absolute top The first two options are known only in hindsight and the third option is a desire of many investors, but should never be the goal of a sensible investor. I know of no system where someone can sell at the top on a consistent basis (consistent being the key word) All forms of investing and trading try to achieve an above average return on a consistent basis. So lets remove option c and focus on the other two options. W ..read more

It was the later part of March 2020 and I was really worried about the tail risks to our portfolio. I started getting worried about Covid in late feb/early march and wrote the following posts on it Battening down the hatches Tailrisks And the key post in the series: Economic sudden stop in which I wrote the following What is an economic sudden stop – It is when most economics activities for a location come to a sudden stop due to a financial or natural disaster. In most cases such sudden stops are local such as due to a flood or an earthquake. Global sudden stops are extremely rare and have ha ..read more

I am sharing an edited note, we published to subscribers recently. A few points to keep in mind as you read this note. I have a terrible track record in forecasting business cycles. I got the real estate cycle wrong the last time when we added to the sector in early 2017. That said, I am stubbornly persistent. Even if I got it wrong the first time, it does not mean I will not try again. I wanted to start the update for this quarter with some broad comments for the sector and how it is influencing our decisions for this basket. I am looking at the real estate basket versus individual companie ..read more

We posted the following to our subscribers recently. Thought of sharing it with a wider audience There was a question from one of the subscribers to which we responded via email. we wanted to share the communication with all of you. We have slightly edited the conversation and added to it Question:   I am fully invested into the model portfolio stocks currently, will I get any panic alert to liquidate portfolio and raise cash and wait for a dip again. Is that how your investing style works or I stay put and be invested at all times. Asking this as, most stocks are trading a ..read more

“It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” – Charlie munger Investing is very easy when you are investing in a bull market. If you are ‘unlucky’ to begin investing in a bull market, you start dreaming of being the next Rakesh Jhunjhunwala or Warren Buffett I used the word unlucky on purpose because every new investor who starts investing in such  periods gets a rude awakening in the next bear market Bull market stories A common theme during such periods are stories we hear from people who are striking it rich at such times US covid Tech boom “Buy quality at any pr ..read more

I am most proud of an investing decision I made years back. Let’s go the beginning. I have been investing for last 20+ years. In the initial years, I was fumbling in the dark and trying figure it out. I had several failures and lost a decent portion of my tiny net worth. Over the years as I gained confidence, I started investing more of my net worth in stocks and moved out of mutual funds entirely by 2009. I launched the advisory in 2011 after investing my own money for 10 + years. During the initial I did not invest a single penny of my mother’s money as I did not want to risk her hard-earned ..read more

I published the following note to all subscribers. Please read the disclaimer at the end of the note The following holdings positively impacted the portfolio performance Apar Industries Bector Foods CERA sanitaryware Polycab limited Conversely, these holdings had a negative impact: Aarti industries Quess Corp Puravankara Style drift and new approaches In my 2022 year end note,  I spoke about some changes in my approach and using stop loss to manage the risk. These changes are by design and have not been done lightly. I have always resisted chasing performance based on the latest fad o ..read more

I am posting my analysis of Linc limited. Please note this is not a buy/sell recommendation and is only for educational purpose. You can download the report from this link: Linc Limited Please read the disclosure at the bottom of the report The post Linc Limited: Leveraging brand Success for Sustainable Growth appeared first on Value Investor India ..read more

Let me share two personal stories, one recent and another from 25 years ago. I have a relative who recently passed away at the age of 50 due to a heart attack. He had a very stressful job and was facing financial pressures as well. After losing his job, he found himself short of money, and it seems (though I don’t know for sure) that he thought an easy way out of his financial troubles would be to trade in the stock market. He lost his savings and sunk deeper into debt. I am certain that all these stressors took a toll on him. The second story is even closer. This is the story of my own father ..read more

I am posting my analysis of Ador welding limited. Please note this is not a buy/sell recommendation and is only for educational purpose. You can download the report from this link: Ador welding limited Please read the disclosure at the bottom of the report The post Igniting Progress: Ador Welding’s Transformation in a Thriving Sector appeared first on Value Investor India ..read more