I recently had the opportunity to attend a workshop in London where the global marine community was beginning to think about the possibility of nuclear ..read more

Note: With the release of new scenarios from Shell, please read here what scenarios are, and what they are not. In early February the European ..read more

I recently had the honour to represent Shell as an industry observer and panellist at the 80th anniversary of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO ..read more

In the weeks before a UNFCCC COP, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) traditionally publishes its Emissions Gap Report. The report assesses the latest scientific studies ..read more

Over the last three weeks I have been working my way from Chicago to Santa Monica on Route 66, some 2,400 miles of lost highway ..read more

This post is a guest contribution by Thomas Akkerhuis, Energy Analyst and Richard Baker, Senior Energy Adviser, both in the Shell Scenarios Team. As the ..read more

In June the Shell Scenarios team launched our Brazil Scenarios Sketch, a deep dive into how the energy transition might unfold in Brazil and how ..read more

The recent release of the Brazil Scenarios Sketch, based around the Shell Energy Security Scenarios, highlights the role that land-use change could play for Brazil to achieve two important outcomes; reaching net-zero CO2 emissions within its domestic economy and becoming an important supplier of carbon removal units into the global economy as the world strives to balance carbon emissions and reach net-zero. In fact, these two outcomes are inextricably linked. The CO2 emissions starting point from Bazil is shown in the illustration below, with land-use change being the largest component of the ..read more

As the world strives to get to net-zero emissions, Brazil can play a formidable role in helping to enable such an outcome, but it won’t happen without the broad recognition of carbon removal credits and a trading capacity to shift the credits between countries. I have recently been in Rio de Janiero, Sao Paulo and Brasilia participating in the launch of a new analysis by the Shell scenario team that is focused on Brazil and looks in depth at the energy transition in the country, but also the enormous potential for managing carbon dioxide on a scale that is globally relevant. That analysis or c ..read more

In a time when there is much being written about limiting warming to 1.5°C, the so-called normative scenario has come of age. These emerge from a class of scenario analysis where a principal outcome is predetermined, rather than the traditional exploratory scenario which finds an outcome as a result of applied societal and geopolitical trends. In the case of 1.5°C scenario analysis, the story-line and findings are determined by the need to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and to limit cumulative CO2 emissions to some specified amount, which is the 1.5°C carbon budget. A further constraint is ..read more