This is a short entry as I technically chased twice this day but the first one was kind of a bust where I drove up to O’Neill and then drove back home after not much happened and waited for later storms. I was expecting early afternoon storms in the northern portion of the marginal risk but that didn’t pan out. 1630z SPC day 1 outlook I got back home after the “first” chase of the day around 22z and decided to just wait for storms to fire northwest of town. Cells did start to fire up north where I was earlier but it was kind of a mess. Luckily, as they migrated southeast they started to organi ..read more

A sagging frontal boundary with very high instability in southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas was expected to be the primary target zone for severe weather with a chance for tornadoes and large hail. SPC had specifically outlined Northwest Missouri with higher probabilities but I was more interested in the western edge of the risk area for a better chance at isolated cells and to avoid the Missouri terrain. 1630z day 1 tornado probabilities I left GI around 17z and headed to my initial target of Syracuse. I planned to sit here and watch satellite until an obvious target materialized b ..read more

After a quiet day, the active weather week resumed on June 9th. A couple of interesting target areas presented themselves this day. There was a weak triple point in northern Nebraska while further southwest a lee cyclone created a pocket of enhanced tornado probabilities in southwestern Nebraska. 1630z day 1 tornado probabilities As with every other chase day this week I was able to lounge about at home before deciding to head out. I was monitoring visible satellite and while there were cells to my north I figured those were elevated. I was waiting for southwestern Nebraska to look good and ar ..read more

Another day of local chasing as a shortwave was moving out of the Rockies and upslope flow was forecast to initiate storms along the higher terrain that would roll off later in the afternoon and progress across Nebraska. Moisture was limited, however, and I debated even chasing this day so I would end up waiting until late afternoon before heading out. 1630z SPC day 1 tornado outlook While SPC had a 5% tornado outlook in the target area, I wasn’t expecting much in the way of tornadoes but was more anticipating isolated or splitting supercells with chance for large hail. I took off from GI arou ..read more

June 6th was a bit of a marginal day, a weak surface low beneath a modest shortwave trough along with looped hodographs would create an atmosphere favorable for south-east moving supercells across Western and Central Nebraska. We had a nice introduction to June for severe weather across Nebraska with plenty of local opportunities for chases. 1630z SPC day 1 tornado outlook As with the previous day, I wouldn’t need to head out until late in the afternoon. SPC issued a mesoscale discussion at 20z for the aforementioned south-east moving supercells along a corridor from northeast Colorado to Nort ..read more

An overnight MCS across Oklahoma and it’s associated outflow combined with a frontal zone setup a potent environment across Western Nebraska and storms were expected to fire along the front later in the afternoon. It looked like a MCS type event again so I hadn’t planned on chasing, but initiation held off until later in the day so I was able to just head out late to check it out. 1630z Day 1 tornado outlook SPC had a 5% tornado outlook along the front and remnant outflow zone and they issued a mesoscale discussion around 20z indicating that storms were attempting to initiate along the front i ..read more

I didn’t write a blog for the previous day as I didn’t take any photos or video but after a late night chase that ended near Burwell where softball size hail fell it was a late drive home. Originally I was debating driving towards the day 2 target and staying at a hotel overnight but decided to head home instead. 1630z Day 1 tornado outlook A strong surface low was forecast to progress across Nebraska into the Sioux Falls area during the day providing two corridors of severe weather and heightened tornadic activity. The warm sector across eastern South Dakota into Minnesota would be the prime ..read more

A lee cyclone was forecast to develop across western Kansas and cause a dryline to sweep east across the state while a warm frontal zone was expected to strengthen and lift into Southern Nebraska. SPC had an enhanced risk forecast in the southeast portion of Nebraska. 1630z SPC day 1 tornado outlook It appeared that convective mode in Nebraska was going to be a bit messy and if I was going to head out it would probably be southern Nebraska hoping to catch the later development to the southwest. I hung around home until later in the evening when a mesoscale discussion was finally issued around ..read more

The synoptic situation featured a negatively tilted trough ejecting over the Plains, a stationary front across southern Nebraska and a dryline pushing through Kansas. This presented two good targets for chasing as a lee cyclone migrated east throughout the day along the Nebraska/Kansas border. 13z SPC Day 1 tornado outlook The 13z SPC day one outlook had an enhanced risk area outlined that coincided with the 10% tornado hatch. A pocket of moderate risk was present around the Hastings-Lincoln-Beatrice area where higher wind risk was present. I took off from Grand Island around 2:30pm and began ..read more

June 25th was kind of an unexpected day for the local area. I wasn’t even planning to chase but it’s an easier decision when it ends up being a local event and you don’t have to go very far from home. The early day SPC outlooks omitted Southern Nebraska as the synoptic setup was displaced further to the south and east. 1630z SPC Day 1 outlook The little bump into Southern Nebraska was added at the 1630z update as an MCV became a potential focus point for severe weather north of the primary synoptic area. This brought my local area into play and I kept an eye on it with plans to check it out af ..read more