October 3, 2023 – Local Chase
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
9M ago
October 3rd was a day I wasn’t planning to chase. A low in North Dakota with a trailing trough stretching into the Central Plains along with cyclogenesis near the Colorado/Kansas border would provide an opportunity for storms in a narrow corridor of mid-60°F’s dewpoints. The event looked like it would go linear quick in my vicinity with scattered chances further south along the dryline into Oklahoma and Texas. SPC 1630z Day 1 Outlook SPC had an enhanced risk starting in my neck of the woods near Grand Island stretching down to Dodge City. I figured if I was going to play today I would just see ..read more
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September 23, 2023 – Sioux Falls
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
9M ago
An overnight MCS from Eastern Nebraska into Iowa would make afternoon recovery behind it and to the north questionable. If it could recover, surface based storms would be possible in the late afternoon near an occluded front stretching from a low in Eastern South Dakota south into Iowa. 1630z SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC had a broad 5% tornado outlook stretching from southwest Minnesota into Oklahoma. The biggest question for me was if the MCS progressing east would get redevelopment along the southern flank, and if the air mass behind it could destabilize. Sometimes I make questionable decis ..read more
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September 21, 2023 – McCook, Nebraska
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
9M ago
A strong dryline was expected to be present from Western Nebraska into Kansas and ascent migrating into the area, storms were expected to fire along a narrow corridor along the dryline, while further east was more uncertain because of lower instability. SPC 1630z Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC had a broad area of 5% tornado risk in the favorable area along the dryline. There was a dry punch forecast along the McCook to Oberlin area, so my original plan was to head to Arapahoe and reevaluate there. I took off from Grand Island just a bit after 19z and began the trek west. A couple hours later a meso ..read more
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August 10, 2023 – South Central Nebraska
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
August 10th wasn’t really on my radar as a chase day, portions of Eastern South Dakota and Nebraska were in a slight risk as a weak surface low was expected to develop in North Dakota with an attendant surface trough arcing into Nebraska. Shear wasn’t that great but values were high enough to support supercells if they could develop. SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook SPC had stretched the 2% tornado risk south right around my home so I knew to keep an eye on the visible satellite in case anything could fire west of here. I was working for the day and didn’t plan to take off to chase. Around 4pm I took ..read more
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August 7, 2023 – Northwest Kansas
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
While a big severe weather outbreak was expected along the Eastern Seaboard, back around my parts moderate westerlies overlaid atop an expected lee trough near the Nebraska Panhandle and Eastern Colorado would set the stage for scattered supercell development with all hazards possible. 1630z SPC Tornado Outlook My original plan for the day was to head into Northeast Colorado around the Sterling area to sit and wait. I expected storms to initiate in the higher terrain and eventually move east into the favorable atmosphere closer to the tri-state area. I took off from work early and left Grand I ..read more
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August 5, 2023 – Mid-Missouri Valley
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
I hadn’t planned to chase this day but I knew SPC had put out a 2% tor on the day 2 so I figured I’d at least check data in the morning to see if it’d be worth a look. The morning of, SPC had upgraded to 5% on the tornado risk and it looked like a surface low that was sliding across South Dakota might be enough to back the winds along an area of confluence that was stretching from Sioux Falls towards Omaha. SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook Looking at the visual satellite before I decided to take off it was pretty clear that storms were going to pop from Yankton southeastward along the convergence zon ..read more
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July 11, 2023 – Thedford Supercell
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
July 11th was another local chase. By local, I mean in Nebraska. A low pressure in northwest Nebraska with a front draped across the state would lift north a bit as a warm front. Temperatures into the 80°Fs and dewpoints into the lower 60°Fs would prime the air along the frontal boundary for initiation in the evening. Isolated supercells were expected eventually growing upscale into a wind threat further east towards Iowa. SPC Day 1 Outlook SPC had a large slight risk area outlined from Eastern Montana into Iowa. The western half of this was for isolated supercells capable of hail and the east ..read more
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July 10, 2023 – Central Nebraska
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
July 10th featured an enhanced risk of severe storms across Southern Nebraska and Northwestern Kansas. While tornado expectations were low, I was expecting some cool supercell action. A wind shift boundary draped across Nebraska into Northwestern Kansas would be a focal point for storms in the afternoon. SPC Day 1 Outlook Since this was mostly a local chase, I was able to sit at home until around 21z before making the decision to go check out the storms to my west. As storms fired around Thedford, I made my way up highway 2 to intercept near Broken Bow. Radar at 21z with location marked I take ..read more
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July 6, 2023 – Colorado Tornado From 15 Miles Away
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
July 6th featured another upslope day in Colorado as easterlies transported surface moisture into the foothills below strong mid level flow in the post-frontal region. Forecast models were showing CAPE values over 3k in Colorado with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60°F’s, which is kind of nuts. SPC was forecasting up to 3″ hail in the more intense cells, and it did look reasonably favorable for tornadoes in the Plains of Colorado south of I-70. SPC Day 1 tornado outlook This was going to be a single day affair so I took off from home right around 8am and began the trek westward. My initial plan ..read more
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July 4, 2023 – Independence Day Chase
NNWX.US
by Nick Nolte
1y ago
July 4th featured a local chase, so I was able to chase some storms without going too far for a change. A surface low in South Dakota with a cold front draped across Central Nebraska would provide the focal point for some local storms. I didn’t really have a big plan, so I just watched visible satellite from home then used that to decide when to leave. SPC Day 1 Outlook Visible satellite at 20z with location marked 20z visible satellite suggested it was time to head to Columbus, as did the mesoscale discussion issued at the same time. Eventually, as 2130z rolled around, almost to Columbus in ..read more
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