After today, we may have a few small-time setups but the big stuff of the mid-late Spring is coming. From late April to Mid June, the peak of tornado season almost always occurs over the middle of the country with more tornadoes in a compressed 60 day period than any other place in the world gets in an entire year. This year, the signs look very strong for an active late April and May. Here’s a late May storm chase to get you ready for the storms to come. This one produced a partially rain wrapped tornado, giant hail, 90mph winds, and incredible amounts of lighting. And that storm structure wa ..read more

We haven’t wanted to write too much on the extended outlook because (lordy) we can’t even trust models to get important details right within a few days of setups. But, I do want to stress that models do a lot better job in predicting when you zoom further out. In this case, ensemble models are all pointing towards our next big weather maker coming in sometime towards the end of next week or into the weekend. There is strong agreement across model suites and solutions that a pattern that favors severe weather this time of year (western U.S. trough) will be established by late month. This has be ..read more

A cold front will march south and east, and scattered storms will form along it in an environment characterized by weak wind shear but strong to extreme instability. There may be enough in the atmosphere to organize a supercell or two, which would increase the large hail risk on a local level. However, storm coverage will be spotty today. Storms should begin to form 3-5 p.m. along the front from northwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and into north and central Texas. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. The tornado risk is very low, but any supercell that can mainta ..read more

One of the most useful things satellite imagery can do for you is to map out boundaries in real-time, including where convergence is strongest and where the cap is most likely to break. Finding boundaries on satellite imagery actually isn’t that difficult for the most part, and I hope this is pretty self-explanatory after you dive in. However, there are some more pro-level uses and cases to consider as well. 0:00 – You Can Do It All on Satellite 0:48 – Our Loop 1:32 – Breaking Down All the Boundaries 2:30 – Outflow Movement 3:20 – The Dryline 3:50 – Mapping the Jet Stream 4:30 – Discerning Moi ..read more

A quick late night update to talk about tomorrow’s severe weather risk. It looks like we’ll have a few scattered storms from Southern Missouri to Texas with large hail possible. The cold frontal passage will mark the end of storm chances for any one place tomorrow, but storms will be possible at any point along it starting about mid-afternoon. Large hail is the primary threat. There is also a very low tornado threat. After this system clears the region, we’ll have to keep an eye on small and subtle jet stream disturbances mixed with marginal moisture for random chances at severe weather the ne ..read more

A few shots from one of the early season chase days this year. We’ve got a long way to go yet this Spring, current indications are for late April into May to be very busy! View this post on Instagram A post shared by Tornado Titans | Storm Chasing & Weather Photography (@tornadotitans) The post A few shots from one of the early season chase days this year. We’ve got a long way to go yet thi… appeared first on Tornado Titans ..read more

There will be a locally enhanced threat of thunderstorms for portions of the Plains up into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Strong to severe storms are likely tomorrow, with big hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. However, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. Locations: Eastern Missouri Southern Illinois Extreme southwest Indiana Northern Texas Central Texas Threats: Powerful wind gusts (main threat in the Ohio Valley) Large hail (including the potential for hail 2+ inches, especially in central Texas) Potential for a few tornadoes (mainly Ohio Valley) Timing Thursday afterno ..read more

Severe storms will form along a cold front from Illinois to Texas, with big hail being a primary threat in Arkansas,Oklahoma, and Texas. The cold front’s position and the timing of storm development are the big questions for tomorrow. Some models are producing storms very near DFW, which would be a pretty big deal if a robust supercell with giant hail is able to form. The tornado threat tomorrow looks really low but not zero. While instability will be very strong, the wind shear in the lowest-levels is pretty weak, with the wind shear overall also being fairly marginal for even supercells. Giv ..read more

Severe weather will be possible today from southern South Dakota to Texas. Storm coverage will be highest in the northern and southern ends of the risk area, with the middle portions having few or no storms before sunset. After dark, lift increases, and storms should become more numerous across the risk area. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are possible. Locations: An enhanced risk of severe weather spans from SW South Dakota into Western Kansas Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas Threats: Large hail. Damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes. Timing: This afternoon int ..read more

An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, western Oklahoma, and western North Texas. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely. Locations: Nebraska Kansas Western Oklahoma Western North Texas Threats: Large to very large hail Damaging wind gusts A few tornadoes Timing: Monday from the afternoon well into the overnight hours. Discussion Weather Development: A deepening upper-level low in the Great Basin will drive storm development across the Plains states. While moisture across the region will be limited with northward extent, it will be offset ..read more