In this video, forecaster Jack Sillin discusses the forecast for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic during the week of 8/31-9/6, 2020. Topics of discussion include a disturbance off the East Coast, a disturbance in the Caribbean, and a jumbled mess of thunderstorm activity farther east in the Atlantic. Graphics used in today’s discussion can be found at weathermodels.com or at the following weather.us links: East Coast disturbance satellite imagery Caribbean disturbance satellite imagery Eastern Atlantic satellite imagery ..read more

Hello everyone! Laura has now emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong tropical storm and is taking full advantage of the favorable environment for intensification. The storm is expected to become a hurricane today as it tracks WNW north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Intensification will continue tomorrow as the storm moves closer to Texas. By the time Laura arrives near Houston tomorrow night, it will most likely be a major hurricane (at least Category Three with winds of 115 mph). Track forecasts by the NHC and most model guidance have continued to drift slightly towards the west as questions ..read more

In this video, forecaster Jack Sillin discusses the forecast for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin for the week of 8/24-8/31, 2020. Topics of discussion include Tropical Storm Marco, Tropical Storm Laura, a tropical wave forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and a tropical wave forecast to emerge off Africa later this week. Graphics used in today’s discussion can be found at weathermodels.com or at the following weather.us links. Satellite imagery of Laura and Marco (click to zoom in for a closer view of either storm): https://weather.us/satellite/902-w-263-n ..read more

Hello everyone! Much attention is being paid to weather model forecasts of Tropical Storm Laura this afternoon as the system looks to threaten the US Gulf Coast as a hurricane this coming week. There are so many models out there that you can find almost any solution you want if you just look through enough guidance. This afternoon’s suite of guidance is a stellar example of this idea. Looking for a model that shows extreme rapid intensification of Laura into a Category 5 hurricane? The HWRF has you covered. Looking for a model that shows Laura struggling to become more than a mid-grade tropica ..read more

Hello everyone! Laura and Marco both remain strong tropical storms this morning as they move towards the US. Marco appears to be attempting to intensify this morning, and is likely to become a hurricane before arriving in Louisiana tomorrow. A full discussion of Marco’s forecast both from a meteorological perspective and from an impacts-focused perspective can be found in yesterday evening’s blog post. So far, I’m leaning more towards the stronger solution given satellite trends this morning, though it’s important to note that the system still has time to weaken before landfall if shear and dr ..read more

Hello everyone! Tropical storms Laura and Marco continue their approach to the Gulf of Mexico this evening though each are facing obstacles to further intensification. This morning’s update focused on Laura so this evening’s update will be focused on Marco which is now moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico. Since the last update discussing Marco in detail yesterday afternoon, the system has built a small inner core and has accelerated drastically to the north-northwest. This has resulted in a track both ahead of schedule and farther east than expected. As a result, the system will face s ..read more

Hello everyone! Both TD 14 and now-TS Laura have been struggling for a variety of reasons today, but both are showing signs that they are trying to intensify this evening. The forecast for both systems remains uncertain (what a surprise!) because of their relatively disorganized state, their proximity to land, and their potential to interact with each other once they both reach the Gulf of Mexico early this coming week. That said, we have learned a bit more about what’s in store for each system. TD-14 now looks unlikely to fizzle over Central America, though it could very well remain on the we ..read more

Hello everyone! TD 13 and TD 14 are still moving towards the Gulf of Mexico this morning. The official NHC forecast, as well as most model guidance, suggests that both systems will be located in the Gulf by early next week. This raises a tricky but important question: what happens if two tropical cyclones are in close proximity to each other? Normally when we talk about forecasting tropical cyclone track and intensity, we look to the storm’s surrounding environment for clues. That environment is usually characterized by a mix of upper-level troughs and ridges. But what happens when one storm’s ..read more

Hello everyone! The past 24-36 hours have been a period of watching and waiting for Isaias to either succumb to the dry air and shear we’ve seen plaguing it over the past few days or start to rebuild its inner core. After it looked like the system might fizzle out entirely yesterday morning (it completely lacked deep thunderstorm activity for several hours after passing over Andros Island in the Bahamas), Isaias has been firing some impressively intense convection as it moves slowly north off Florida’s East Coast. As a result of staying a bit stronger than guidance expected, the storm has avoi ..read more

Hello everyone! Hurricane Isaias continues moving slowly northwest this morning. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that the storm’s maximum sustained winds are now up to 85 mph while its minimum central pressure is down to 988mb. This represents just a bit of strengthening since yesterday. That’s impressive given the hostile environment the system has been fending off in terms of both dry air and wind shear. This post will take a look at both the storm’s forecast meteorologically-speaking as well as tweaks to the impact forecast presented last night. The main mes ..read more