The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 90% chance that Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will form into Tropical Storm Nestor in the Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move rapidly to the northeast, spreading wind, rain and storm surge towards the northern Gulf Coast. The center of circulation should arrive along the Florida Panhandle Saturday morning. National Hurricane Center forecast track map for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, released on Thu Oct 17 at 1000AM CDT. Rain and wind impacts may be felt in Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, while the Florida Panhandle may a ..read more

Training of heavy thunderstorm bands along the Upper Texas Coast on Wed Sep 18 Very serious situation unfolding along the Texas Coast this morning... Training of intense thunderstorms will bring flash flooding to areas such as Freeport, Galveston and Beaumont/ Port Arthur... DETAILS 1) Areas from Freeport to Galveston should already have saturated surface soil. Galveston has picked up around 6.5 inches of rain so far as of 0600AM this morning. Training of heavy rain over these areas can produce flash flooding... Parts of Sargeant...near Freeport were observing roads under water earlier ..read more

BIG PICTURE - A disturbance will bring heavy rain to the Upper Texas Coast and Metro Houston area from Tuesday- Thursday, bringing drought relief but causing localized street flooding; - We should not expect flood levels to approach anything similar to hurricanes Harvey (2017) or Ike (2008); - Storm surge levels should remain from 1.5 - 2.5 feet...producing minor coastal flooding and impeding the drainage of heavy rainfall; - Thunderstorms could produce as much as 2-3" of rain per hour...be careful if driving near flooded areas especially at night. IN DETAIL A disturbance approachi ..read more

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is likely to form into Tropical Storm Humberto near the Bahamas and track towards the Florida coast. As of 0800AM EDT on Fri Sep 13, the National Hurricane Center forecasts an 80% chance that this low pressure system, which is now centered near the Bahamas, will develop into a tropical storm within 48 hours and a 90% chance that it will develop within the next five days. The disturbed area is now named "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9", but will be named Humberto if it becomes a tropical storm. Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane ..read more

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms centered over the Southern Bahamas has an increasing chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. This area, now classified as INVEST-95L,  will likely track towards Florida. Infrared satellite image of Invest-95L on the morning of Thursday, September 12.  Image: Tropicaltidbits.com The National Hurricane Center forecasts that this area has a HIGH chance of developing into Tropical Storm Humberto, with the chance of development at 70% in the next 48 hours and 80% in the next five days. National Hurricane Center Five-Day G ..read more

The potential for heavy rainfall flooding is increasing for the Northern Gulf Coast and Southern Mississippi Valley later this weekend and early next week. An area of disturbed weather north of Hispaniola is forecast to track to the west-northwest and approach Florida. The National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of tropical storm development in the next five days, particularly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The major hazard associated with this system will be prolonged heavy rainfall. The Euro model predicts this system will slow down considerably as the storm center tracks over th ..read more

Here we are at September 10th, the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Climate records indicate that nearly one named storm exists per year at this time on the calendar. Another way to look at this statistic is that in 100 years of climate records, we would expect nearly 100 named storms to have existed around this date. This graph shows the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms over 100 years. Source: NOAA The graphic above shows the number of named storms per 100 years and depicts a strong seasonal influence on hurricane activity, with the busiest period of Atlan ..read more

Follow me in Hurricane Dorian on my Facebook page... https://www.facebook.com/hal.needham.796 We have launched the Hazard Area Likeliness (HAL) Map at this site: https://www.u-surge.net/hurricane-dorian.html This product provides updated likeliness of wind and flood hazards for 24 cities ..read more

KEY MESSAGES 1) Hurricane Dorian threatens to inflict a long-duration flood event that will begin with saltwater storm surge flooding near and north of the landfall area; 2) Dorian's slow motion near and after landfall will exacerbate coastal flooding and erosion, while creating a "compound" flood event. Torrential rain will have nowhere to drain as a long-duration saltwater flood pushes inland; 3) Places that have never flooded before may experience deep water and a second flood hot-spot may develop several days after landfall in places like Jacksonville, Savannah and Charleston. Inf ..read more

BIG PICTURE Hurricane Dorian should intensify today and tomorrow and become a major hurricane (cat 3) on Friday. Dorian is expected to make a westward turn on Friday and Saturday, and approach the Florida Coast late in the weekend or early next week. Considerable uncertainty in the track remains, and the entire Florida Peninsula is still in the "cone of uncertainty". A stronger version of Dorian could track farther to the south and a slightly weaker version track farther north. Regardless of the exact landfall location, Dorian could inflict severe wind and storm surge impacts related to landf ..read more