Monday July 22nd appeared to be another “ho-hum” 2024 storm day, and I wasn’t much interested in chasing more heavy rainers with little or no structure. This was the SPC Day 1 convective outlook: However, the surface analysis at 5:00 pm shows a frontal boundary hovering along the West Virginia / Virginia border. That nearby boundary provided enough low level shear to stir up some chasing excitement: I had noticed rotation and even a hook echo on a storm crossing the Blue Ridge crest at a shallow angle but was unwilling to drive far enough east to get a look at it. (I’d had enough of “whack-a ..read more

It’s difficult to label yesterday (Tuesday, July 16th) as a “chase”, given that my expectations weren’t very high and that results were pitiful. However, I knew chasing would be mostly off the table the rest of the week due to other commitments so I headed out just after 1:30 pm. The SPC Day 1 outlook wasn’t overly optimistic either, with the better convective conditions well north of the I-64 corridor: To add to the doubts about this setup the NWS Blacksburg sounding showed a dry layer aloft with corresponding capping: I drove first to the Glade Hill area on VA Route 40, positioning myself ..read more

I was convinced that Wednesday July 10th would be a chase day, but I wasn’t sure how robust convection would be. The heat and high humidity across the Mid-Atlantic was invaded by a cold front crossing the Appalachians, accompanied by slightly more vigorous upper level winds (25-30 kts) than the typical summer doldrums. However, a warning signal for less-than-desirable updraft growth showed up in the NWS Blacksburg morning sounding: Here in the Mid-Atlantic a 700 mb temperature over 10º C is a very strong cap to overcome. A reading over 12º is a danger signal for vigorous convection. Moreover ..read more

With today’s heat index reaching 100 degrees before noon I wasn’t about to head out and swelter somewhere waiting on storms to fire. Besides, the Storm Prediction Center had the highest severe risk (level 2 of 5) west of I-81, meaning I could very likely await storms to come close to home: And that’s exactly what happened. After an earlier severe storm – which I ignored – crossed Henry county more convection pushed across the Appalachians and neared the Roanoke valley. I motored to a local vantage point, switched on the livestream, and watched the rain and lightning. Storm #1 passed by just s ..read more

The promise of an end-of-June chase kept me going the day after we got back from a beach vacation. This was the SPC Day 1 outlook: A “cold” front barged into a very hot steamy airmass east of the Appalachians. Combined with forcing from a lee trough the short term CAMs showed several rounds of convection crossing the Old Dominion on this last day of June. Shear was in short supply across the southern half of the state so rotating storms weren’t expected, and neither was hail as the freezing level was pretty high. I was a bit apprehensive about capping given the 10 degrees C 700 mb temperature ..read more

Today promised a chance of showers and general thunderstorms locally, but nothing overly fascinating was expected…and nothing fascinating happened. This was the SPC Day 1 outlook: Keeping an eye on radar I’d noticed a robust complex of storms sliding south across West Virginia. When it crossed the I-64 corridor near Covington VA I rolled down the driveway and motored north on U.S. Route 220 to check it out. As I drove along I could see an anvil with multiple vigorous updrafts ahead of it, but as I reached a vantage point in northern Botetourt county it was obvious this convection had weakened ..read more

It’s been a long frustrating 2024 chase season. Today is a case in point, with the SPC – the true severe weather experts – painting western Virginia with a Marginal Risk: But none of the forecast models (long, medium, or short term) to which I had access supported that idea. In fact, I had a hard time seeing any real convection occurring south of I-64 during daylight hours (nocturnal storms could happen but I wouldn’t chase them anyway). This was the 12Z sounding from Blacksburg: Westerly winds at 850 mb indicated down-sloping winds on the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, robbing the lowe ..read more

I was hopeful that today would yield better results than most of this year’s chases. This, despite the SPC’s outlook for only general thunderstorms south of the I-64 corridor: North of that highway a slowly retreating warm front kept a shear zone available, which resulted in several tornado warnings in northern Virginia into Maryland. But in my chase zone? Sigh…. I headed down the driveway at 1:30 pm to get ahead of decent convection just east of the Blue Ridge crest. I could see the towers as I drove across the Roanoke valley and was optimistic that something worthwhile would manifest. Unfor ..read more

Today wasn’t a day I expected to chase, with the combination of a lack of shear plus no cap looking to give rise to “whack-a-mole” storms. However, when showers popped up near and along the Blue Ridge crest during early afternoon I headed out to take a peek. At a local vantage point I watched this slow moving initial shower (no lightning, so no thunderstorm) cross the Roanoke valley: When the precipitation arrived I bailed for home base, seeing via radar more showers and storms on the way. Before the rain cleared completely I ventured back out, motoring east along U.S. Route 460 to Montvale ..read more

Given a forecast of clear skies and lower humidity for the remainder of the week (and given the frustratingly quiet chase season so far) I decided to push hard on Monday, May 27th. The convective allowing models showed vigorous afternoon convection in southeastern Virginia, an area which I’d avoided chasing so far due to its distance from home base. I rolled down the driveway at 11:00 a.m. and picked up both my son and my oldest grandson in Clarksville. We headed out from their abode at 3:00 p.m., noting substantial updrafts already growing east of town. Using U.S. Route 58 as our high speed e ..read more