STOCK MARKET TUG-OF-WAR
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks opened lower but may recover by session’s end. At the moment, the Dow is down 77 points and the SPX is flat. Bulls and bears are playing tug-of-war this morning. Coronavirus is tugging one way and positive economic data is pulling the other (see below). With gold up .5%, long-term Treasury bonds up about .2% and utilities stocks beating industrials and technology sectors, it looks like risk-off sentiment has the upper hand. But unless one is a professional trader, day-to-day market moves matter much less than medium-term or long-term trends. And right now we see signs that economic mome ..read more
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ECONOMY IMPROVES, EARNINGS COMING THROUGH
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks opened up this morning to record intraday highs (Dow +168 pts; SPX +.5%). The consumer discretionary sector is leading the way (+.8%) as Coronavirus fears recede. The energy sector is up .6% hopes that OPEC will cut back on oil production. The VIX Index fear gauge fell back to 14.4 as investor sentiment improved. European markets are poised to close up about .7% and Asia was up overnight. Risk-on sentiment is coming back as economic data has improved and earnings season is looking pretty good (see below). Commodities are trading mostly higher, except gold. Copper is up about .6%, par ..read more
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STOCKS FALL ON GOOD NEWS
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks opened lower this morning despite a blowout jobs report (see below). At the moment, the Dow is down 200 pts and the SPX is down .16%. Materials and energy sectors are taking a beating, down .6% to 1%. These, along with industrials, are thought to be the sectors most exposed to Chinese economic weakness caused by the Wuhan Virus. The VIX fear gauge jumped up to 15.5, but traders won’t really take notice until it rises above 20. Commodities are behaving like you’d expect given what’s happening in China. WTI crude oil fell back to $50.50/barrel. It looks like oil traders are trying to forc ..read more
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RISK-ON TRADE CONTINUES
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks opened sharply high again today (Dow +317 pts; SPX +.8%). The energy sector is finally catching a bid (+3.5%) even though WTI crude oil is up only about 1.9% to trade at $51.50/barrel. Both financials and healthcare are up about 1.6%. The VIX fear gauge is down around 15.5 and VIX March futures are trading around 16. So the option market isn’t registering any panic. Once again, junk bonds are up on the day but the rest of the bond market is selling off after a huge rally in January. The 10-year Treasury yield bounced up to 1.64%. Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise ran an article in which he w ..read more
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WHAT CORONAVIRUS?
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Major stock market averages surged this morning alongside new Coronavirus cases around the world (now 20,000). At the moment, the Dow is up 462 points and the SPX is up 1.6%. The tech sector is leading the way with a 2.6% gain in early trading. Only communications and utilities are struggling. European markets closed about 1.5% higher this morning, and China’s Shanghai Composite Index shot up 1.3% last night. The US dollar is again rising vs. a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is trading up around $50.50/barrel on speculation that OPEC will agree on another ..read more
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REBOUND IN RISK ASSETS
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks surged at the open this morning, rebounding from Friday’s rout. At the moment, the Dow is up 165 pts and the SPX is up .85%. Ten of eleven market sectors are higher, led by materials (+1.5%), tech (+1.1%) and communications (+1.3%). The US dollar is a stronger against a basket of foreign currencies, and that’s pushing most commodities lower. WTI crude oil fell to $50.90 per barrel and Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering production cuts. Oil hasn’t been this low in over a year. Copper is faring well today, but is down 9.5% this month. Price moves in the metal are usually associated wi ..read more
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STOCK MARKET CORRECTION ON EARNINGS/WUHAN VIRUS CONCERNS
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks faltered in early trading on some disappointing earnings reports from Caterpillar, Chevron, Honeywell, and others. At the moment, the Dow is down 400 pts and the SPX is down 1.2%. A number of sectors are down more than 2% (energy, industrials, tech, materials). But Amazon is single-handedly boosting the consumer discretionary sector 1.8% (see below). Commodities are trading mostly lower, and bonds are higher. WTI crude oil is down around $52/barrel. The 10-year Treasury Note yield has fallen back to 1.53%. Goldman Sachs estimates the Wuhan Virus will shave .4% off of first quarter US ..read more
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WUHAN VIRUS DINGS STOCK MARKET
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks opened lower this morning on Wuhan Virus fears. China has imposed travel restrictions for its Wuhan Province, Russia closed its border with China, and the total number of infection cases is close to 8,000. At the moment, the Dow is down 87 pts and the SPX is down .4%. It’s not surprising that copper has fallen nearly 10% this month as the epidemic will have an impact on China’s economy, albeit temporary. In addition, WTI crude oil continues to slide ($52/barrel). China’s stock markets fell about 3% last night. Bonds are trading higher, consistent with a temporary risk-off stance among t ..read more
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EARNINGS BUOYS STOCK MARKET
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Major stock market averages opened slightly higher this morning despite the spread of the Wuhan Virus. At the moment, the Dow is up 109 points and the SPX is up .25%. Industrials are the best performing sector (+1.1%), followed by materials and financials. Real estate and communications sectors are in the red. The VIX Index fear indicator is down around 15.6 after a mini-spike to 18 two days ago. Commodities are trading lower today, except gold. WTI crude oil fell back to $53.30/barrel this morning. Oil prices have fallen 16% since January 6th. It seems that both oil and gasoline are in tempor ..read more
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STOCKS GAIN ON EARNINGS SEASON & ECONOMIC DATA
Lighthouse Financial Services
by Mike Verity
4y ago
Stocks opened higher yet again this morning in the wake of the US-China trade deal. At the moment, the Dow is up 169 pts and the SPX is up .5%. All eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by tech, energy and industrials (up over .5%). Most sub-groups are higher as well, save gold miners (-1%). The VIX Index—a gauge of fear among traders—fell back to 12.2. China’s stock markets closed mostly lower last night. Commodities are mixed today. WTI crude oil climbed back to $58/barrel. Funny that right after the Saudi Aramco IPO price was announced oil prices fell 8%. Copper is down a bit a ..read more
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