We are living in unprecedented times.  It’s time to question some of the most basic assumptions about your economic future, and America’s. ————– “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”  — Mark Twain That quote was immortalized in the opening of the Oscar-winning film “The Big Short”.  It was very applicable to the root causes of the 2007-2008 subprime crisis, and it remains true today.   Sometimes a real crisis is what it takes to relieve us of dangerously wrong assumptions.   In 218 BC, the R ..read more

  Hong Kong’s economy is set to contract even further in 2020 as businesses suffer the combined impacts of the Covid-19 outbreak and the ongoing pro-democracy movement. Tourism, retail and consumer sectors will be hit the hardest as the autonomous region continues to grapple with its crisis response. Travel restrictions and the discontinuation of flight routes will erode over 50% of visitor traffic coming from the mainland in the coming months.Meanwhile, American Airlines has suspended all flights to the region through February 20. Initial projections expect 40% of hotel staff to be axed ..read more

  As Hong Kong wrestles with the combined impacts of an economic downturn and the novel coronavirus outbreak, a new kind of threat has emerged over the past 90 days. The usage of IEDs has become more prevalent both in and around the central district as well as near the border with the mainland. From pipe bombs at protests rallies to homemade explosives being detonated at medical centers, an increasingly radicalized minority has resorted to extreme tactics. The graphic below provides a detailed breakdown of all bombing incidents within the past 90 days. The red pings represent successful ..read more

The current climate in Hong Kong was already tenuous, with the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak being portrayed as a purely Chinese creation, borne out of the poor hygiene practices and unhealthy diets in the People’s Republic. Regardless of the accuracy of this portrayal, the virus arrives at a time of intense sinophobia. Fears about the virus are therefore at risk of fueling retaliatory attacks against the mainland and all groups deemed to be ‘pro-Beijing’. Additionally, Hong Kong’s populace is still conscious of the 2003 SARS outbreak and how a lack of transparency from China facilitated the spre ..read more

Chad has ended a months-long mission fighting Boko Haram in neighboring Nigeria and withdrawn its 1,200-strong force across their common border. The pull-out to start the year could further weaken a region-wide struggle against the militants who have killed tens of thousands of people, forced many more to flee, and triggered a humanitarian crisis. According to Chadian defense officials, an unexpected U.S. travel ban imposed on its nationals has affected its security commitments – which include its involvement in the U.S.-backed fight against Boko Haram. This development is likely to strengthen ..read more

Hong Kong has turned two holiday camps, including a former military barracks, into quarantine zones for people who may have come into contact with carriers of the Wuhan virus, officials announced on Thursday (Jan 23). So far, two people in the city have tested positive for the new coronavirus – which is similar to the SARS pathogen. The Wuhan Virus and pro-democracy protests could potentially intersect in a number of possible ways, Polysentry identifies 2 possible scenarios. Scenario 1: The Wuhan Virus outbreak significantly worsens and authorities take up increased precautions. These could ra ..read more

Economic slowdown is sparking protests against the Liberian president, George Weah, one year after the departure of the UN peacekeeping mission. Despite its nominal success, the  international community has failed to address the root causes of conflict, and mounting political tensions could reinstigate violence in the country. A Mounting Challenge to Weah   Liberia, the West African coastal nation bordering Sierra Leone, Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, has long been riddled with violence and economic dependence on foreign aid. Its deep seeded issues, coupled with recent economic and politi ..read more

Growing US concerns over Chinese involvement in Arctic affairs have raised tensions between the two states. Although detrimental to mutual trust, it is unlikely that economic activity in the Arctic Circle will be disrupted in the near future as China currently seeks to avoid securitization of the region.   Diplomats gathered in Rovaniemi to discuss the state of the North Pole were caught off-guard by the United States’ posturing. In a speech to the Arctic Council, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sharply warned against China’s increasing economic activity on the North ..read more

Worried by Chinese militarism, President Duterte turns to an old ally for support. Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte is repairing ties with the US in an apparent hedge against increasingly troubling relations with Beijing whose undelivered promises of massive investment in infrastructure projects and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea have raised questions among Filipinos about the merits of the country’s pivot to China. Soon after the mercurial Duterte came to office in 2016, he turned his back on long-time ally Washington apparently over criticism of his human rights record, em ..read more

Approaching Mexico City’s Benito Juarez International Airport by air I catch a glimpse of a beetle-like shape etched into the ground on the outskirts of the city, thin lines and dots indicating where construction equipment once dug and shifted. These tiny markings would prove a big topic of conversation during my short time in Mexico City. One of President Andres Lopez Obrador’s first decisions on entering office in December last year was to cancel Mexico City’s part-built US$13 billion new international airport. A long overdue replacement to the city’s current major airport, it had been launc ..read more