May 26, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “I am somebody who has been very fortunate to have had the opportunity to test my limits. And I would remind you philosophically that my definition of a fool is somebody who has reached his limits. Almost by definition, whatever goals you set, you need to constantly readjust them so that at no time do you reach your goals before your time is up.” -Sam Zell, Billionaire Real Estate Investor I spent this morning re-listening to John Barns and Barry Habib’s presentation from the Mauldin Economics 2023 Strategic Investment Conference (SIC). So, for toda ..read more

  May 19, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb…Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” -Calvin Coolidge As I step back and reflect on all I learned from this year’s Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference, I find myself hardened in my views. I’m not sure that’s a good thing, and of course, I’m keenly aware I could be wrong. My mind keeps clicking… What am I missing?  I remain concerned. Five c ..read more

  May 5, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “The five big forces that have driven and are driving just about everything: 1) the credit/debt/market/economic cycle, 2) the internal peace/conflict cycle that shapes the domestic order, 3) the external peace/conflict cycle that shapes the international order, 4) acts of nature (e.g., droughts, floods, and pandemics), and 5) human inventiveness/technology.“ – Ray Dalio The annual Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference is in full swing. Over the years, the conference has been held in various cities—San Diego, Pheonix, Dallas… For the last ..read more

  April 21, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Forget about it.” – Donnie Brasco, (1997) Donnie Brasco is a 1997 crime drama directed by Mike Newell starring Johnny Depp and Al Pacino. The film is based on the true story of an FBI agent named Joe Pistone (played by Depp), who goes undercover as a jewel thief with the alias “Donnie Brasco” to infiltrate the Bonanno crime family in New York City in the 1970s. Throughout the film, many characters use the phrase “forget about it”—particularly Al Pacino’s character, Lefty Ruggiero, a low-level member of the Bonanno family who takes Brasco under his ..read more

  April 14, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know, probably that would be going too far, but I do think we’re much safer, and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don’t believe it will be.” – Janet Yellen on July 27, 2017, in an interview with the economist and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller There are a lot of forecasts about the direction of the economy. Soft landing? Hard landing? No landing? If you’ve been reading On My Radar, you know I’m anticipating a hard landing (recession) by the fall. Of course, I could ..read more

  April 7, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we’d have a pretty average record. It wasn’t hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.” – Charlie Munger “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett In both this week’s and next week’s OMRs, I’ll share several equity market valuation metrics. Importantly, we’ll be looking into what the data tells us in terms of coming 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 10-, and 12 ..read more

  March 24, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Swing your swing. Not some idea of a swing. Not a swing you saw on TV. Not that swing you wish you had. No, swing your swing. Capable of greatness. Prized only by you. Perfect in its imperfection. Swing your swing. I know, I did.” – Arnold Palmer The Economist headlined the cover of one of their magazine issues last spring with the title “The Fed That Failed: How inflation humbled America’s central bank” and a sketch of Ben Franklin with his hand over his face. Fitting, I guess. No white flag. No surrender—ever. The inflation fight rages on. I mad ..read more

  March 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “The last two years [are] one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the Fed, by staying so easy when everything was booming,” – Jeremy Siegel “My problem with the Fed, overall, is there’s too many academics in the mix,” said Langone. “I think if you had more businesspeople involved or people with business backgrounds, I think you might see a different dialogue and different decisions.” – Ken Langone, Co-founder of Home Depot The CPI comes in lower year-over-year but stickier than expected. Moody’s cuts the outlook on U.S. bankin ..read more

  March 10, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams.” – The Gabriel García Márquez (March 6, 1927 – April 17, 2014) This morning, February payrolls came in 85,000 jobs higher than expected at 311,000 jobs added to the market. The private sector contributed 265,000 (50,000 more than expected), and the government added 46,000 jobs. The current Fed Funds rate is 4.75%, but the Fed meets again on March 22 to determine the next (likely) rate hike. CME’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds for a ..read more

  February 24, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “We find no instance in which a central [bank]–induced disinflation occurred without a recession. [. . .] Simulations of our baseline model suggest that the Fed will need to tighten policy significantly further to achieve its inflation objective by the end of 2025.” – Co-authors Stephen Cecchetti, Michael Feroli, Peter Hooper, Kermit Schoenholtz, and former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin The consensus is that the Fed has the resolve to keep raising interest rates if inflation pressures don’t recede. This morning’s data showed that consumer spendi ..read more