“I want,” or Simple Leadership Failure
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by stu
6M ago
Which team we align ourselves to is important. Often, I see people join a new team and struggle to redefine their alliance to that new team. They continue to identify with their old team, as their “we.” That’s bad and can cause animosity. It’s unfortunate. The ideas they try to promote in this frame face an uphill fight with the new team. It’s worse when the individual, particularly a leader, defines their team as “I.” I want it done this way. I want to have it that way.” The underlying message of someone being in charge, not leaging, is clear. Strong preferential leadership like this can be ..read more
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Deciding not to decide is different from deciding not to act!
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by stu
6M ago
A little while back, a fellow leader shared that we she loved about our team is, “We make decisions and take action!” I felt an instant pang of guilt. I had been working with a different team that had a significant decision to make. And, I was supporting not deciding. Was I blowing it? As I mulled the comment over, I did not think we were blowing it. Rather we were taking to to uncover some critical information to guide the final decision making. We had decided to search and explore, not act. This team had been using a business tool to lead the exploration effort. That tool turned up a critic ..read more
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It’s been a long time. Much has changed.
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by stu
6M ago
So, Some may have noticed. I stopped writing a blog about the weather. A book review or two, that I wrote, led to the end. Anyway, most of my friends know I still keep a close eye on Arizona weather. It’s been a cold wet winter. Not what I expected. Triple La Niñas can do that I guess. Friendly folks can ask. I’m going to go in a different direction with my web page and blog. I’m taking the easy way out and not writing all my own HTML, and other codes. It’s the blog, and I am using WordPress. I’ll try to add in nice colors and formats, as allowed and easy. I’m going to use this blog to write a ..read more
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What’s the right age to be come a rebel?
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
1y ago
Benjamin Franklin was born in 1706.  Rebellion is commonly associated with teenagers. It should be. While rebellious, they are very rarely successful at their rebellions. Sagacity lends itself well to expert rebels. A tad of caution mixed with a desire to do the right things is a strong stance for a rebel. Like a teenager, frustration breeds the sparks of change. But awareness of how things work and people respond,  changes it into a dynamo, an unstoppable dynamo of change. It was around 1772-73 that Benjamin Franklin became a rebel. Frustrated with the lack of adaptation, he knew r ..read more
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Another brief winter
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
2y ago
I’ve held off on posting about the snow Flagstaff will get today through Monday. It just didn’t seem like it would happen. A very nice cut-off low pressure system will cross the state this weekend. Normally, a system like this, in early March could be a major event. This storm could slowly bring 6-12 inches of snow, which may often melt fast, and maybe some occasional rain. We might end up with little to show for it. Also, it’s mostly just the highlands that will receive precipitation. Most of Arizona will see little rain or snow. Total snowfall animation through Monday evening from the GFS M ..read more
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Winter begins on Tuesday
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
2y ago
Finally, a storm comes. Tuesday-Thursday will be wintry. We could say, Tuesday through Thursday will be winter. Total snowfall though Thursday Morning, February 24, 2022 fromt he GFS model, at pivotalweather.com The GFS, European and Navy models all line up for this event. 8-12 inches of snow could fall from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. Terrain effects will play a role. This will be a welcome change to our water situation. For the snow season, we are 32 inches below normal. For precipitation since the start of the year, we are more than 3 inches below normal. Unfortunately, it loo ..read more
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Anemic storm this week. Strong storm next week?
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
2y ago
There has been a dry, low pressure system in the computer models that consistently hits Wednesday and Thursday of this week. As the storm approaches it keeps looking drier. This morning’s run of the GFS model gives Flagstaff about 1/10 of an inch of precipitation. The European model is a bit wetter at about 1/3 of an inch. It will probably fall as snow, but could also be rain. So, expect slippery conditions. Total precipitation forecast through Friday morning from the GFS model at pivotalweather.com. While weak, this storm marks a pattern shift to the storm door being open. Next week, the chan ..read more
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More dry
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
2y ago
There is a persistently disappearing storm outside the 10-day time horizon. It’s there as a reasonably strong, cut-off low pressure system. It never makes it inside the 10-day computer models. Looks like we will continue with dry winds. 10-day total precipitation forecast from the European model at pivotalweather.com. The GFS model and the European models match well. Maybe March will be wetter ..read more
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A Forecast from Willett Snow
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
2y ago
I doubt it. For Tuesday and Wednesday, snow is in Flagstaff, and rain elsewhere in Arizona, is repeatedly in the GFS computer model. The European computer model, and the US Navy computer model are sticking to a dry outlook. Also, January will close out dry enough to erase any gains since the water-year started on October 1. I tried to find a good image to use. But, dry forecasts are boring. Enjoy the wind and cold. Editor’s comment from May B. Knott: Ignore Willett. He’s just in a bad mode because it’s dry ..read more
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How much snow by Wednesday?
Stu's Weather Blog | Arizona Weather Blog
by Stu
2y ago
A little bit of snow has lingered across the Northland since the last storm. Tonight through Wednesday morning, a new storm will bring more white than wet. Temperatures are much lower this time. By Wednesday, 8-10 inches of snow could fall. European model snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning, December 29, 2021, from Pivotalweather.com. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php The second half of the week is looking wetter and snowier ..read more
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