Coastal Flooding Kicks the Week Off
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
2d ago
Discussion: The most important and immediate up-front issue to discuss is the coastal flooding. Earlier last week you might recall me mentioning that the early part of this week could see worse coastal flooding than during the Saturday rain and wind storm. This is because the low has occluded off the jet stream and retrograded towards the 40N/70W benchmark (from the E). This stall in low track has created a large easterly fetch of wind between the benchmark and coastal New England—right towards the Jersey Shore. The next few high tides might sting a bit for areas that normally flood along the ..read more
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Colder Week. Stormy Weekend.
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
1w ago
Discussion: This week is fairly straightforward as a trough swings through the Mid-Atlantic US and holds New Jersey under a colder air mass. The week looks mostly dry with breezy W/NW winds. A few chances for light precip, mainly in the Wed-Thurs period but should occur overnight with minimal disruption. Maybe some snow showers for NNJ/NWNJ but nothing of significance. High temps this week should push to the 40s/50s while overnight lows fall below freezing for much of the state a few nights. We then arrive at an unsettled weekend. The GFS and Euro are worlds apart. GFS has mixed wintry precip ..read more
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Mild Weekend Precedes Colder Week
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
1w ago
Discussion: We have a few more mild days this weekend before the pattern changes. Saturday looks like the sunnier drier day. Sunday subject to more clouds and passing isolated showers but far from a washout. The cold frontal passage looks mostly dry. Both days in the 60s away from the ocean. A colder air mass will then settle into the region for the period of March 18-24 (Monday-Friday). Highs should reach near-50 while lows drop into the 20s/30s (40s near coast). With that said, it would be cold enough for snow overnight to the NW of I-95/NJTP. I’m not seeing any synoptic storm systems until ..read more
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Some Nice Stuff this Week
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
2w ago
Discussion: I saw a few areas got hit with some nasty snow showers and squalls yesterday…not much accumulation (a coating here and there) but a hard hit of reduced visibility and winds can really pack a punch. I had a feeling this would be the case, as mentioned last week, given the lake effect action occurring under a rapidly deepening upper low. This morning (Monday) was certainly a “listen to the wind blow, watch the sunrise” kind of morning/day today in Jersey. Not surprised given the tight isobars aligned from NW to SE between the departing low (spinning counter-clockwise near Nova Scotia ..read more
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Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Again.
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
2w ago
Discussion: The system that brought rain last night and this morning is still clearing out to sea. A few remnant clouds and sprinkles around but for the most part, improvement is expected tonight through tomorrow. Another system then approaches on Saturday. Looks like clouds move in fully by late-Saturday morning, if not earlier. Rain then moves in between afternoon and evening as a double-barrel low configuration pushes W to E over the E US. There could be enough dynamics for convective precipitation overnight Saturday night which means heavy rain and possibly some embedded thunderstorms. At ..read more
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Active Rainy Pattern Continues
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
3w ago
Discussion: It looks like the active synoptic pattern will continue. The above graphic represents total inches of rainfall through this weekend. The active pattern brought New Jersey lots of rain in December, rain and snow events in January/February, and now more rain in the first third of March. Regardless of precipitation type, it seems like we’ve had a synoptic system provide precipitation almost every 3-6 days since Thanksgiving weekend (give or take some days). Upper-level data is suggesting prolonged periods of E US ridging checkered with transient troughs…about what you expect to see as ..read more
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In Like a Lamb
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
3w ago
Discussion: An E US ridge should dominate the weather pattern for the next week of so (this weekend and next week). This will allow for milder conditions (for this time of year) but also a few rain chances (Saturday and Wed PM-Thurs AM). A trough  is then expected to undercut the ridge and move through NJ next weekend, bringing at least rain, possibly some snow, to NJ. This is a long-range signal gaining support however the temperature profile looks a little warm for the first half of the system (next Friday-Saturday). It’s the second half of the system I’m interested in which would be ne ..read more
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Stormy Night Developing
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
1M ago
Discussion: This is not a snowstorm article although it’s February and I would love for that to be the case. Instead, this is an article about how rough it could get Wednesday night into early Thursday AM with the expected frontal passage. Remember, Weather NJ is All Weather All New Jersey, not just snow. The main function of Weather NJ is to provide safety awareness in hazardous weather conditions. Flash-flooding rain, coastal flooding, frequent lightning, high winds, hail, etc…all things that can greatly impact safety just as much, if not more so at times, than snow/ice hazards. With that sa ..read more
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Mild and Unsettled Pattern
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
1M ago
Discussion: We’ve definitely left the E US trough pattern and will now settle into mostly an E US ridge pattern with a few troughs just grazing NJ with it’s S tip. This will force most low pressure systems to track into Canada (well N of NJ) which means mostly frontal systems for NJ. Expect milder (above average) periods ahead of the cold fronts, heavy rain along the cold fronts, and sharp cooldowns (below-average) behind the cold fronts…so much so that the frontal precip could end with non-accumulating snow. Then between the fronts expect temps to smooth out to near-average. The period overal ..read more
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Rain Clears for a Cold Dry Weekend
WeatherNJ | New Jersey Weather News
by Jonathan Carr
1M ago
Discussion: A trough will swing through the E US this weekend after this evening’s rain moves out. This will keep the weekend colder for NJ with the coldest point likely occurring just before sunrise Sunday morning. The trough then moves out and a series of higher geopotential heights dominates the rest of February into early March. This should inhibit any snowstorms from forming until at least March 8. I am seeing a synoptic storm signal in the March 8-10 period however currently looks more like a rainy nor’easter than a snowstorm. If winter is going to have one final breath, it would be Marc ..read more
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