• Gold under bearish pressure • Likely to fall to support level 1900.00 Gold under the bearish pressure after the earlier downward reversal from the round resistance level 2000.00 (likely upward target set in our previous forecast for this precious metal) standing close to the upper weekly Bollinger Band. The active downward reversal from the resistance level 2000.00 is similar to the earlier times when the initial contact with this price level is followed by the sharp downward correction. Given the clear bearish divergence on the weekly Stochastic, Gold can then be expected to fall further t ..read more

• GBPNZD broke resistance level 1.9650 • Likely to rise to resistance level 2.0000 GBPNZD recently broke the resistance level 1.9650 (earlier strong resistance from February) standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward ABC correction from the start of October. The breakout of the resistance level 1.9650 accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of this month. GBPNZD currency pair can then be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 2.0000 ..read more

Canadian consumer prices rose 0.4% in February, with annual inflation slowing to 5.2% from 5.9%. Both figures were below expectations of 0.5% and 5.4%, respectively, reflecting a faster return to normality than economists had expected. Consumer inflation excluding fuel and food, slowed to 4.7% year-on-year, the lowest since January last year, although the monthly increase was 0.5%. The slowdown in the annual inflation rate can be explained by a high base effect, as prices rose by 1% per month in the first half of 2022. However, to avoid falling into the trap of an imaginary improvement, it is ..read more

By the start of European trading on Monday, WTI had lost over 20% from its high of $80.96 on 7 March to a low of $64.36. The sell-off that intensified last week may well be giving way to a new buying impulse in oil. Oil is broadly back in long-term equilibrium, and it would take a significant shift in the supply/demand balance to trigger a further sell-off or a new round of growth. Between December and early March, prices consolidated in a narrowing range with an equilibrium point near $77/bbl. This pattern had a good chance of breaking the lower end of the spectrum. Powell’s speech to Congre ..read more

In just ten days, gold has risen by 11% or around $200. At the start of the day on Monday, the price was approaching $2010. Historically, this is thin-air territory for gold. Despite the threat of a short-term pullback to replenish the bulls’ positions, the medium- and long-term trends are up, opening the potential for gains to the $2200 area as a medium-term benchmark and $2500 as a long-term benchmark. The problems in the US and Swiss banking sectors have triggered a frenzy of demand for gold and cryptocurrencies. The risk of default on large deposits has increased, although so far, it has ..read more

• EURCHF broke resistance level 0.9850 • Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0000 EURCHF recently broke the resistance level 0.9850 (former support from February) intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse 1 from the start of March. The breakout of the resistance level 0.9850 accelerated the active short-term correction 2. Given the strongly bearish Swiss franc sentiment, EURCHF currency pair can then be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level at parity, 1.0000 ..read more

• EURNZD reversed from round support level 1.7000 • Likely to rise to resistance level 1.7200 EURNZD recently reversed up from the round support level 1.7000 (former resistance from December and January, acting as the support after it was broken in February). The support level 1.7000 was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December and the support trendline of the daily up channel from January. EURNZD can then be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.7200 ..read more

Market picture Bitcoin jumped 24% last week to close at $28K. Ethereum added 16.2% to $1800. Other leading altcoins in the top 10 gained between 6.6% (Polkadot) and 19.3% (BNB). The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 14% over the week to $1.17 trillion. Last week proved to be the best week for bitcoin in the last five years, since February 2018. BTC rose sharply along with gold as market participants began to see it as a safe haven for capital amid problems with banks. At the same time, bitcoin’s positive traction has been boosted by technical factors ..read more

US inflation expectations are declining, which could be good news for the stock market, suggesting less pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. The University of Michigan’s inflation expectations index for the year ahead fell to 3.8%, the lowest since April 2021. This is still above the 10-year average of 3.1%, but it is a move in the right direction despite a tight labour market and above-trend wage growth. Lower fuel prices and the resolution of logistical problems are helping to stabilise short-term inflation expectations. Five-year expectations are also creeping down, falling to 2.8 ..read more

• CADCHF reversed from key resistance level 0.6775 • Likely to fall to support level 0.6700 CADCHF recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.6775 (former lower boundary of the sideways price range from December, acting as the resistance after it was broken earlier this month). The resistance level 0.6775 was further strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from the start of March. Given the clear daily downtrend, CADCHF can then be expected to fall further toward the next key support level 0.6700 ..read more