Ignoring data can be useful. Because not all data is, in fact, useful. As the number of datasets has proliferated, so too has the noise created by them. But there can also be signals buried in the noise, particularly when it comes to survey-based soft data. Enter the NFIB Small Business Survey.1 It could easily be argued that it should be ignored, given the rampant, near-permanent pessimism embedded in the survey. Will the economy improve? Probably not. Expect sales to improve? A solid maybe. That has been the general story for the past decade—excepting the 2016 to early 2020 period. NFIB Expe ..read more

In 2024, we have seen Meta Platforms, Salesforce.com and Booking Holdings (parent company of Priceline.com) initiating dividend payments.1 Many technology companies have accumulated significant amounts of cash, with more calls to return this cash to shareholders by initiating dividends. Of course, dividends are not the sole way cash can be returned to shareholders. In the U.S. equity landscape, buybacks can often be even larger.   The psychology with which the investment world treats dividends feels more like an ongoing arrangement  between the shareholders and the company and, once ..read more

We were excited to speak with Aaron Dubin, VP of strategy and business research at Team8, on the Behind the Markets podcast. Team8 works with WisdomTree on the WisdomTree Team8 Cybersecurity Index, which is tracked by the WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR), before fees and expenses. By way of background, Team8’s expertise is in organizing the array of companies providing cybersecurity solutions to the market. One of the most important details regards how a megatrend connects back to different company activities that are meant to play out in the future. Team8 does this through eight distinct ..read more

The woes of taxes mean everyone worries about the bottom line—not gross gains but net gains after taxes. After all, the saying goes, “It’s not how much you make, but how much you get to keep that matters.” What Is a Capital Gain? A capital gain occurs when an investor accrues profit from the sale of an asset such as a stock or ETF. Simply, (sale price – purchase price) * shares = profit > 0. However, this profit is taxable. Capital Gains in a Mutual Fund vs. an ETF •  Mutual fund: With a mutual fund, capital gains can be generated in three ways: active management, rebalancing or r ..read more

The bitcoin “halving” (or “halvening,” as some say) is an event that takes place in the bitcoin network roughly every four years. Newly issued (or mined) bitcoin is cut in half, reducing oncoming supply. At a point near the year 2140, the total supply of 21 million bitcoins will be mined, and no more new supply will become available to the market. Economics 101 would say that, holding demand constant, this tightening of supply would lead to higher prices—which is what has been observed in past events such as this. Will this be the case once again? Concepts Underpinning the Halving Approximatel ..read more

This year started on a strong note, with global equity markets gaining 8.9%.1 The initial focus was on artificial intelligence, its growth potential and its impact on corporate profitability. However, with better-than-expected economic data being published in the U.S., but also in Europe and China, market confidence grew, leading to a regional broadening of the bull market. Europe closed 7.6%1 up, quite close to the 10.3%1 of the U.S. The only weakness remains in Asia, leading to emerging markets returning only 2.4%.1 This instalment of the WisdomTree Quarterly Equity Factor Review aims t ..read more

Following last week’s “hotter” than expected CPI release, the sole focus for the money and bond markets was to, yet again, dial back their Fed rate cut expectations. However, there is another aspect of Fed policy decision-making that has been flying under the radar, and that involves its balance sheet. With the May 1 FOMC meeting only two weeks away, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss this part of monetary policy because, at this point, it appears as if this facet may make headlines well before actual rate cuts do. So, what exactly am I referring to when talking about the Fed’s balan ..read more

When it comes to articulating data related to monetary policy outcomes, the FOMC has conveyed an awkwardly varied set of targets. In mid-2022, then Vice-Chair Lael Brainard articulated the labor market needed to come into “better balance” before rate hikes would cease. Later in the year, Chair Powell brought “core services ex-shelter” to prominence in the pursuit of taming inflation. Call them the “intertwined two” guideposts for monetary policy.   But the question remains—do any of the myriad data points the FOMC has pointed to as guideposts still matter? The answer is no. “Nominal wage ..read more

  The first three months and change of 2024 has brought with it a rather noteworthy shift in bond market sentiment. With Federal Reserve policy decision-making remaining data dependent for the foreseeable future, investors have been left to wonder how to position their fixed income portfolios for these changing interest rate landscapes. In our opinion, investors can use the time-tested barbell strategy to navigate not only the current setting, but more importantly, what potentially lies ahead. Let me provide a quick perspective of how rates and rate expectations have changed recently. One ..read more

  On a recent episode of the Behind the Markets podcast, we had the opportunity to speak with Dan Ives, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities. We see his articles referenced frequently across all sorts of major financial publications.  We Are in a “1995 Moment” Dan is unique in that when we speak about the 1990s, he was an analyst covering technology stocks, so he has had some notable longevity for those seeking to think of what we see today in 2024 as a “potential bubble” in valuations.  Dan reminded us that in ..read more