by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. There is a gigantic pool of highly flammable fuel in the fireplace of our economy, and lots of people are about to start lighting matches. The result may be an inflation conflagration not seen since the 1970s. In March of last year, I wrote a blog about what might happen next during the pandemic (“The Virus and the Economy”). In that blog, I talked about the velocity of money, which is an arcane economic concept that is rarely discussed, and not widely understood. However, we are getting to a stage where the velocity of money is becoming important – again – s ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. The US has an out-of-control epidemic on its hands as the Covid-19 virus has been allowed to race through the population through deliberate ignorance, sloppiness, and negligence. The US should go back into lock-down to try to get the virus under control – but I’m pretty sure it won’t because President Donald J. Trump and several Republican state governors would consider this politically unacceptable. They are going to find that failing to act, which will make them responsible for killing tens of thousands of their own constituents, is an even worse politicall ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. “If you hold a cat by the tail, you will learn things you cannot learn any other way.”       – Mark Twain “Mommy! Make it didn’t happen!”       – Little kids and immature adults everywhere The Covid-19 pandemic has created what amounts to a global intelligence test. And most people are failing. For decades, the forces that oppose science and considered thought have been growing. The most notable examples of some of the zombie ideas[1] they’ve produced include: The denial of evolution and the embrace of creationism ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. “What’s often missing from [the story of the 1347 European pandemic] is the wider context and the lasting impact of the Black Death. This is a story not only of unfathomable tragedy, but also of transformation and rebirth. The plague, in combination with a host of other related and overlapping crises, delivered a death blow to Medieval Europe, ushering in a new age — the Renaissance and the rise of so-called agrarian capitalism — and ultimately setting the stage for the Industrial Revolution and the modern world.”[1] – “The Black Death led to the demise of ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. “Government ‘help’ to business is just as disastrous as government persecution… the only way a government can be of service to national prosperity is by keeping its hands off.” – Ayn Rand “Government isn’t the solution to your problems. Government is the problem” – attributed to Ronald Reagan “What stands between the current recession and a global depression is the survival of the business sector. Government efforts must therefore focus on supporting the business sector with policies that are direct, timely and effective. Tax holidays, rollover of lo ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. “There is no room for wishful thinking when dealing with pandemics. The right mindset is to prepare for the worst-case scenario.”[1] – Dr. Joanne Liu, former international president of Médecins Sans Frontières In 1970, Penn Central Transportation Company was not just the largest railroad company in the United States, it was also the sixth largest company in the country, and had the nation’s most valuable real estate portfolio. It was an impressive, muscular organization. It was also out of cash. And because of that lack of liquidity, it couldn’t pay its bill ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. By now, tons of business people have realized that the Covid-19 pandemic is going to do major damage to their businesses, and are feverishly pondering ways to keep from going bankrupt. Let me outline what I believe are the dimensions of the problem – how big it is, and some of its downstream consequences – and then turn to possible resources to help business people try to reinvent themselves to cope. You Don’t Have a Business Without Customers The first, and most obvious, consequence of the pandemic is that governments are urging, and in some cases requiring ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. What are stocks worth in the face of the emerging Covid-19 pandemic? Nothing. Zero. Nada. Bupkis, Rien. But how can that be? Just a month ago, stock markets were worth many trillions of dollars. All that value can’t just vanish. Can it? My answer comes from the fundamental principle of the stock market: a stock is a fractional share of a business, and therefore shares in the value of the company. What are companies worth today? Companies are worth what they can produce and sell. But more than that, companies can only produce and sell things as part of a globa ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. The Covid-19 coronavirus is bad news for everyone, and in many different ways. The biggest, and most important way is that it will kill people, potentially millions of people. How many it will kill is as yet unknowable as we don’t yet know how contagious it is, and how many people who get it will die. I’ve tried doing back-of-the-envelope calculations based on the number of cases and number of deaths reported, and the numbers could be truly scary. Since I have no expertise in epidemiology, I won’t offer my calculations. Where I do have some experience and exp ..read more

by futurist Richard Worzel, C.F.A. Imagine you had a rare disease that was going to kill you, but neither your doctor, nor any of the doctors you’ve been referred to or seen, knew anything about it or had ever encountered it. As a result, you would likely die. Unless… Unless an Artificial Intelligence correlated data from several million pages of medical research to identify this obscure disease, and proposed specific tests to determine if this was, indeed, what was afflicting you. This is one of the many ways in which Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) will affect your health. Indeed, AI will eve ..read more