Cash wheat markets were dead today as traders focused on logistics for the long weekend & the shock of the USDA stocks & acreage report. They’re also busy with month end, end of quarter & some end of year reports & M2M. We spent the day working on the report & the impact on balance sheets. The increased other spring wheat acres mark the end of the spring wheat premium to winter wheats, if growers end up planting those intentions. The spring wheat b/s could increase c/o by 100+ mbu next year & I’ve heard one analyst with HRW & HRS c/o the same next year. The rally in ..read more

Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association estimated Oklahoma HRW production at 54.3 million bushel using an average yield of 24.65 bpa. This compared to our estimate of 62.0 million bushel. The current estimate suggests harvested acres at 48%, the lowest in history and compares to the average of 56 ..read more

Brazil’s Bolsonaro authorized a new quota to buy extra Mercosur wheat without tariffs. They did this last year and it puts US and other world wheat on even playing field for up to 750.0 kmt. This is more bearish Argentine values than bullish US values, but it gives HRW a chance in M/A/M shipment positions. This week we saw domestic HRW and HRS basis work higher, while HRW export basis was very weak for nearby position. PNW values were steady to lower for HRW/DNS and up 15+ ct/bu for SWW. Export sales hit a low for the year this week. The only support for US wheat was China’s interest for SWW a ..read more

The market was dead and especially for O/N/D where exporters have no interest unless they need something for logistics. Last week there were more soybeans loaded from the Texas gulf than wheat. Domestic HRW has not seen a train on the spot market in the past 7-days and pipelines are drawn down. Domestic spring wheat market continues to live off the spot market with no interest in too arrive Nov/Dec. The PNW SWW is still cheapest world wheat with increased interest from feed wheat buyers. Canadian wheat is cheaper than US NS/DNS and US HRW from PNW or gulf. Latin American buyers were tendering ..read more

The deferred bid/offer values have not change over the past 10-days as buyers hold their bids at historical values and sellers add the freight premiums to delivered premiums. There has been a turnaround in nearby values with higher basis after disappointing applications on September contracts. Increased freight rates encourage shippers to carry wheat until J/F/M or A/M positions where freight is cheaper.  Shippers/warehouse men have made their space for fall crops and have no interest in shipping wheat for the balance of the calendar year.  Northern Plains growers will hold spring wh ..read more

Weakness of the USD is offset with higher rail freight rates, increased elevation margins, and widening ocean freight spreads.  US wheat is a long way from competitive today.  Hard red winter wheat growers have sold +50%-65% of their harvest. Shippers/ware-housemen have hard red winter tucked away, despite improved row crop conditions which was supposed to push wheat to the market for Aug/Sep, but we are still waiting for those offers. Freight is now the excuse why shippers are not offering wheat in any position. The increased freight rates for nearby and deferred positions has widen ..read more

Harvest started up today, but there was not a lot of new information offered. TW down 1 lb/bu after weekend rains but still well above average and #2 grade. Elevator bids continue to work higher as each company tries to compete with their competitor, bids were up 3-5+ ct/bu higher today. Delivered bids to domestic or export markets were unchanged.  Domestic SRW basis exploded 20-30+ ct/bu higher today as mills finally tried to buy wheat for J/A/S, while the CIF barge market closed the gap to +40/+50 ct/bu for J/J, without any reported trades.  The domestic spring wheat market closed ..read more

The market is focused on harvest quality of HRW & SRW. Traders anxiously seek information for HRW yields, quality & protein while waiting on sampled SRW test weight, falling number, & vomitoxin content. It is still early for HRW harvest but yields and quality are above expectations however protein is low. The country hopes it will improve as harvest expands north. SRW harvesting is also better than expected however harvesting north of the Ohio River will be important to watch as heavy rain and flooding is likely to impact quality moving forward. HRW basis was steady to firmer at t ..read more

In ABARES June Edition, Australia 2020/21 wheat production was pegged at 26.7 million MT reflecting a 27% increase in area to 13.0 million hectares and above average yields in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia ..read more

The cash markets were firm but quiet today across the domestic and export markets. There was some trade at the Texas gulf for HRW last week to Brazil and LAM buyers.  To our knowledge there has not been additional trades this week, but some interest under the market. The PNW has Japan tendering tonight for 3 cargoes and one Korean buyer passed last night. The domestic markets are firmer as well, as states start to open their economies via phase 1 Covid-19 reopening. Growers don’t like the flat price and are focused on planting spring crops in the mid-west and northern plains.  HRW fa ..read more