Four years after starting my COVID reflections series, I’ve learned that: Looking for a bit of beauty every day is a great way of finding positives in the world Writing about what is happening the world is much better for my state of mind than doomscrolling A community of people reading and reflecting is even better! Basic, widely available data and information is a vital part of government’s role, and one which they are still not doing enough to fulfil. That was then… Four years ago today, Saturday March 21 2020, I wrote a post called Reflections on Covid19.  I wrote about how I had st ..read more

I’ve just published my annual reading list for 2023 here, as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular favourites from this year’s list, which, as always, is a bit of an eclectic mixture. Curlews on Vulture Street: Cities, Birds, People and me One of my favourite books of this year. Darryl Jones is an urban ecologist, and this is a memoir of many of his experiences of helping humans and birds live better together, as well as how he and his fellow scientists figured out the daily lives of birds in urban areas. There are many great stories in ..read more

I’m going to be voting Yes in the referendum about the Voice to Parliament. Making decisions about people without giving them a say is not a great way to make great decisions. And it hasn’t worked. To illustrate, I’m going to talk about a measure I do know a lot about – mortality. The life expectancy of indigenous people in Australia is much lower than for all Australians. And the gap is growing. I’ve updated my previous analysis with an extra year of statistics, and it’s worse. Since 2008, Australian Governments have set targets for areas where they aim to close the gap between indigenous and ..read more

Source: Actuaries Institute The first phase of uninhabitability is uninsurability – Michael Mann, renowned climate scientist. As climate risks to property increase, the people who live in places exposed to those risk are less and less able to afford to insure their properties. Which will start to create climate ghettos. And the housing crisis in Australia will worsen, as areas in areas with high risk of disaster become uninsurable. The Actuaries Institute has updated its report on Insurance affordability. It makes for sobering reading.  The median home insurance premium across Australia ..read more

Sexual harassment prevalence appears to have reduced in Australia over the past 5 years, but is still unacceptably high. And if you pick absolutely any marginalised group in society,  that group is significantly more likely to experience sexual harassment. Men are far more likely to be responsible for incidents of sexual harassment – they were the harassers for the vast majority of sexual harassment of women, and the majority of sexual harassment of men. Recent legislative changes have added a positive duty for organisations to eliminate, as far as possible, work based sexual harassment ..read more

Annually, the government here reports on whether it is “closing the gap” betwen indigenous and non indigenous Australians.  A key measure is mortality, and the gap between indigenous and non indigenous mortality rates is widening, rather than narrowing. I’ve written about this before. According to the latest Closing the Gap report, the first outcome measurement is life expectancy – Close the Gap in life expectancy within a generation, by 2031. So I’ve taken a closer look at mortality rates. And the gap is, sadly, widening. Source: ABS, my own analysis What I’ve shown in this graph is ..read more

Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models can lead us Astray and What we can do about it, by Erica Thompson Today I’m reviewing a book that I loved, a book for any actuary, or indeed model builder or model user to read. I felt as if I highlighted half of this book, so I’ll try and give you enough of a flavour of Thompson’s insights so that you feel compelled to read it yourself. Erica Thompson is a physicist and climate scientist by background. She has taken her background of trying to understand climate atmospheric models (with massively different outputs) for her own research into a br ..read more

I’ve just published my annual round-up of my non fiction reading for 2022 here. Do go and read the whole list, but here are my favourites for the year (or at least the ones I keep telling people to go and read). A variety of topics, from history, public policy, life advice and some token fiction so I hope you’ll find one you like. Butler to the World: The Book the oligarchs don’t want you to read: how Britain became the servant of tycoons, tax dodgers, kleptocrats and criminals, by Oliver Bullough This book is a fascinating analysis of all the ways the UK, particularly London, supports the dod ..read more

Is the NSW Covid wave peaking? NSW Health reporting suggests it is, but their statistics don’t really report that view. On Boxing Day here in Sydney, there is another Covid wave, and some people are curious to know if it’s peaked yet. I keep thinking I’ve written my last Covid reflection, but there is always another actuarial angle! This time it is to share an insight from one of my fellow actuaries and Covid analyst, Karen Cutter. Every week NSW Health puts out a report on respiratory disease in NSW. The latest one is here. And just as they have done since the 12 November report, they report ..read more

The Australian Government is inquiring into Long Covid and repeating Covid infections – the terms of reference are here. I put in a submission, and I am sharing it here for the record. The scope of my submission is a review of my understanding of the available data on the prevalence and severity of Long Covid in Australia (responding to item 3 in the terms of reference), and the potential impact of that severity on insurance in particular (responding to item 4 in the terms of reference). 3. Research into the potential and known effects, causes, risk factors, prevalence, management, and treatm ..read more