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The Aussie Rules Almanac is back again in 2017! Come join the fun at http://facebook.com/theaussierulesalmanac or purchase a season pass directly at: https://checkout.shopify.com/11424874/checkouts/8cd06fbde2194b9391aac00386fdaba2 or a monthly pass at: https://checkout.shopify.com/11424874/checkouts/baca70667bd382d295aec2267071f424 ..read more

To all the people who have followed AFLpredictions/The Aussie Rules Almanac over the past three years: We have launched our Facebook page! Come across and “Like” us at https://www.facebook.com/thefootballalmanac We have also changed the method of delivery of the predictions. To get our predictions ahead of each weekend’s games, please subscribe by clicking the shop icons on the Facebook page. My hope is that by running it with an emailed spreadsheet and subscription fee, you will get both more accurate predictions (because I can dedicate more time to it) and the predictions will be more f ..read more

We’re back in 2016 as The Aussie Rules Almanac! To kick off this season, we’ve run a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2016 Home and Away season to see where each team will probably finish. The simulations use the 2016 fixture and a predicted best 22 to gauge team strength. Club Minor Premiership Top Four Top Eight Bottom Four Wooden Spoon Hawthorn 53% 89% 99% 0% 0% West Coast Eagles 12% 56% 87% 0% 0% Geelong Cats 5% 42% 81% 0% 0% Sydney Swans 5% 38% 80% 0% 0% Port Adelaide 5% 31% 74% 0% 0% Western Bulldogs 4% 31% 71% 0% 0% Fremantle 4% 30% 72% 0% 0% North Melbourne 3% 30 ..read more

2015 was another successful year at AFLpredictions, marking our third consecutive year of profit since starting publication in 2013. This was the first year that player information and additional statistics (beyond points scored) were included in the model. The result was the most successful year to date, with a return of $3.15 on an initial investment of $1 (assuming full Kelly betting). To illustrate the model’s performance, take for example someone investing $1000 and adopting quarter Kelly betting (that is, only betting the suggested fraction of a quarter of your t ..read more

Here it is, the last bet of the year! And it’s an interesting one. The model loves the Hawks this weekend, so hopefully they can deliver our last win for the season. Good luck and thanks for following AFLpredictions this season! Hawthorn ($1.59) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.50) Team model Player model Predicted margin +20.0 points +20.5 points Home likelihood 70.8% 71.8% Bet on home team $0.21 $0.24 Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00 ..read more

No player model bets this week. Best of luck if you are using the team model! Fremantle ($2.30) vs Hawthorn ($1.66) Team model Player model Predicted margin -16.6 points -5.9 points Home likelihood 32.6% 43.1% Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00 Bet on away team $0.18 $0.00 West Coast Eagles ($1.20) vs North Melbourne ($4.88) Team model Player model Predicted margin +36.5 points +32.9 points Home likelihood 84.0% 82.4% Bet on home team $0.04 $0.00 Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00 ..read more

Tough week last week, and not much on offer this week. But let’s hope we get on a winner on Friday night! Hawthorn ($1.27) vs Adelaide Crows ($3.94) Team model Player model Predicted margin +28.4 points +30.3 points Home likelihood 78.4% 80.1% Bet on home team $0.00 $0.07 Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00 Sydney Swans ($1.54) vs North Melbourne ($2.57) Team model Player model Predicted margin +25.7 points +14.2 points Home likelihood 76.3% 64.8% Bet on home team $0.33 $0.00 Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00 ..read more

A few interesting bets this week! I should note that it is possible that North Melbourne and Fremantle’s excessive resting of players last week has affected their ratings. Best of luck to everyone! West Coast Eagles ($2.04) vs Hawthorn ($1.83) Team model Player model Predicted margin +6.9 points -0.8 points Home likelihood 57.3% 49.2% Bet on home team $0.16 $0.00 Bet on away team $0.00 $0.00 Fremantle ($1.33) vs Sydney Swans ($3.49) Team model Player model Predicted margin -3.1 points +11.1 points Home likelihood 46.3% 61.2% Bet on home team $0.00 $0.00 Be ..read more

With just 9 finals to see out the 2015 season, I thought I’d quickly post the profit chart for this season Betting Performance We tipped 140 correct with the player model, and 137 with the team model. That gives us more tips than the experts in the Herald Sun (by one tip), and a couple less than the two leaders in The Age expert tips (curse you Richo and Cherney). The profits throughout the year are shown in the following plot. We finished with a player model profit of $3.48 on a $1 pot from a total investment of $24.75, which is a return on investment of 14%, and a return on capital of 348 ..read more