From bonus to burden: The cost of ruling from a new(s) perspective
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by GUNNAR THESEN, CHRISTOFFER GREEN‐PEDERSEN, PETER MORTENSEN
2w ago
Abstract Studies have repeatedly documented the cost of ruling: governing parties generally suffer electoral defeats. We approach this empirical law of political science from the perspective of another empirical law: the incumbency bonus, the fact that incumbents get more media attention than the opposition. Our claim is that the bonus constitutes an electoral liability because it reflects the critical approach of media to government power. News featuring incumbents is therefore associated with a more negative tone than news featuring the opposition. This incumbency burden in turn affects gove ..read more
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The backlash against free movement: Does EU‐internal migration fuel public concerns about immigration?
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by LUKAS F. STOETZER, MARTIN KROH, LEONARD DASEY
3w ago
Abstract The free movement of people is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU) that has led to an increase in EU-internal migration. This study investigates the impact of increased immigration to Germany resulting from the 2004 and 2007 eastern enlargement of the EU on concerns about immigration within the German population. By merging 20 years of annual migration statistics with panel data on individual attitudes and exploiting exogenous variation in the gradual enlargement of the free movement policy, we examine the causal effects of EU-internal migration on immigration concerns ..read more
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Mainstreaming democratic backsliding: The role of gender stereotypes
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by JULIA ELAD‐STRENGER, LIHI BEN‐SHITRIT, SIVAN HIRSCH‐HOEFLER
3w ago
Abstract Radical-right parties have gradually penetrated the political mainstream in many liberal democracies, marking a trend of ‘democratic backsliding’. We propose that women's increasing visibility as representatives of radical-right agendas makes democratic backsliders, their policies and their parties seem more legitimate, and may help explain their growing public acceptance. Our studies provide the first systematic examination of this hypothesis in three countries – Israel, Germany and the United States (N = 7203). In Studies 1a-c, we show that voters perceive democracy-eroding policies ..read more
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Did Merkel's 2015 decision attract more migration to Germany?
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by JASPER TJADEN, TOBIAS HEIDLAND
3w ago
Abstract In 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to allow over a million asylum seekers to cross the border into Germany. One key concern was that her decision would signal an open-door policy to aspiring migrants worldwide – thus further increasing migration to Germany and making the country permanently more attractive to irregular and humanitarian migrants. This ‘pull-effect’ hypothesis has been a mainstay of policy discussions ever since. With the continued global rise in forced displacement, not appearing welcoming to migrants has become a guiding principle for the asylum policy o ..read more
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Are right‐wing populists more likely to justify political violence?
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by MIKU MATSUNAGA
3w ago
Abstract Do individuals with right-wing populist ideologies have higher violence-justification attitudes than those supporting different political ideologies? While the literature has confirmed the association between political violence and populism, research on which components of populist ideologies relate to individual attitudes towards political violence is relatively scarce. Based on 18 European democracies, this research note examines whether right-wing populist individuals are more likely to justify political violence to pursue their political goals. The analyses reveal that right-wing ..read more
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Multidimensional and intersectional cultural grievances over gender, sexuality and immigration
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by GEFJON OFF
1M ago
Abstract In addition to immigration grievances, research shows that radical right voters grieve societal developments regarding gender equality and sexual freedom. Adding to research treating these grievances separately, this article advances a joint understanding of these grievances. I analyse interviews with voters of the German radical right Alternative für Deutschland for perceptions about discrimination and (dis)advantages of natives versus immigrants, men versus women and cis-hetero versus LGBTQI+ people. I find similar argumentations about these social groups: Most interviewees do not p ..read more
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It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by ANDREAS DÜR, ROBERT A. HUBER, YANNICK STILLER
1M ago
Abstract The consequences of economic globalization on electoral outcomes have recently become a prominent topic of research. We complement the emerging literature on this topic by studying whether changes in a subnational region's trade competitiveness affect the incumbent's vote share in that region. Using a novel dataset that relates subnational trade competitiveness to election results in 29 countries over a 20-year period, we show that this is indeed the case. We also show that this effect is most pronounced for elections where the clarity of responsibility is high. Finally, we find mixed ..read more
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For every action a reaction? The polarizing effects of women's rights and refugee immigration: A survey experiment in 27 EU member states
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by AMY ALEXANDER, NICHOLAS CHARRON, GEFJON OFF
1M ago
Abstract Building on research on cultural threat-induced polarization, we investigate the effect of the individual-level salience of cultural threats on polarization between social liberals and conservatives. In a unique survey experiment conducted with 129,000 respondents nested in 208 regions in 27 European Union (EU) member states, we manipulate the presence of two cultural threats, women's rights, and refugee immigration, to test their polarizing effects on social liberals’ and social conservatives’ support for traditional values. We find that priming the threat of refugee immigration pola ..read more
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Russian aggression and Europeans’ attitudes toward the EU – Evidence from the 2014 annexation of Crimea
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by OSMAN SABRI KIRATLI
1M ago
Abstract This research note investigates whether external military crises, short of war, in the neighbourhood of the European Union (EU) affects attitudes toward the EU. Specifically, I explore whether the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 fostered higher levels of trust in the EU and support for deeper integration among European citizens. Methodologically, I exploit the coincidental timing of the Russian annexation of Crimea on 18 March, 2014 with the fieldwork of the Eurobarometer survey (81.2) conducted in the spring of that year. The quasi-experimental evidence establishes that Eu ..read more
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Political mobilisation and socioeconomic inequality in policy congruence
Wiley Online Library | European Journal of Political Research
by DAVID WEISSTANNER, CARSTEN JENSEN
1M ago
Abstract In recent years, scholars have observed that political parties’ policy positions frequently fit the preferences of well-to-do voters better than those of the less well-to-do; a phenomenon known as policy congruence inequality. While the existence of inequality in policy congruence is well-established, we currently only have a modest understanding of the causes of it. We develop an argument proposing that the political mobilisation of citizens with low socioeconomic status (SES) both in the parliamentary channel, in the form of high turnout, and in the extra-parliamentary channel, in t ..read more
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