The area with the blue circle is where the tornado, damaging thunderstorm wind and large hail risk will be the greatest through the afternoon. You can see thunderstorms developing near the west edge from southeast Kansas to west of the Lake of the Ozarks. More storms are expected. Please keep an eye on the weather in this region the next few hours.  ..read more

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes. There is also a better than average chance of damaging thunderstorm-generated winds.  This hail forecast is the probability of 1" diameter hail or larger. The area in red has an enhanced risk of large hail. The yellow area has a significant risk. Where the hatching exists, the hail could be 2" or larger.  I will update the forecast this afternoon.  ..read more

Joplin, after the tornado We all remember the 2011 catastrophic Joplin Tornado and the loss of 161 lives — by far the worst single tornado disaster since the civilian tornado warning program began 1957. From 2000 to 2011, the National Weather Service (NWS) was making tremendous progress in warning of tornadoes. Tragically, the NWS and local emergency management during the hour before the tornado arrived did just about everything wrong.  Prior to Joplin, the NWS, on average, provided 13.3 minutes of advance notice and correctly warned of tornadoes 73.3% of the time. In 2007, th ..read more

The NWS SPC is forecasting large hail in Kansas tonight. The is a significant risk of hail 1" in diameter in yellow. Where you see hatching, there is a risk of giant hail, 2" in diameter or larger.  However, recent model runs indicate the possibility of thunderstorms with large hail in southern Kansas.  This is 10pm HRRR model's output. By 1am, the thunderstorms have congealed in northeast Kansas.  By 5am, thunderstorms with heavy rain and hail continue in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.  While these model forecasts can be off significantly, I'm posting this ..read more

The third day of tornado risk continues.  Radar at 12:27pm, shows thunderstorms, some severe (yellow polygons), increasing in intensity on the west edge of the watch. These will move east and intensify.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas. I'll update on the risk this afternoon.  ..read more

We've talked about the topic below many times. The insurance industry has conned many gullible state regulators into giving them rates to reflect higher numbers of disasters, even though disasters are not increasing.  From one of the same people who believe global warming is a catastrophe, Paul, Ehrlich, this #1 best seller was wrong about everything. Glenn Reynolds has a great column on the topic. No matter how wrong they are, it never affects their confidence ..read more

New Tornado Watch has been issued: -- original posting -- The bright red outline is where there is an enhanced red risk of tornadoes from now until 7pm. Please closely monitor local weather. You may also follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  ..read more

The counties in yellow are under a tornado watch as of 1:40pm.  Brown is a wind advisory. Please ignore the warning polygons as they change rapidly. If you live in the areas in yellow, please keep on up on the weather the rest of the afternoon. There has been a surprisingly large number of tornadoes -- some of which have been damaging -- this morning and into the early afternoon. More are expected.  ..read more

Note the forecast is for "strong" tornadoes. We've already had a tornado north of Kansas City this morning.  ..read more

The yellow, hatched area is where there is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes later today. The brown area has a significant risk.  I will update the forecast this afternoon. Regardless, please keep an eye on the weather in these areas as we've already had at least one tornado this morning ..read more