Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
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Author of "Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather" blogs about weather, climate and meteorology and particularly about severe weather warnings. A blog about weather, climate, and science. Occasionally, we'll post on other topics of interest.
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
28m ago
I was recently asked whether the product shown below works.
TornadoAlert uses lightning patterns to attempt to warn of tornadoes in your local area in time to take shelter.
First, I have zero direct knowledge about this product. I do know that lightning-based tornado detection devices have been around for about 70 years. I saved up and purchased a Sferics a couple of years after the F-5 Ruskin Heights Tornado (1957) passed south of my neighborhood.
When lightning rates reached a certain point it would display danger (right) and sound a piercing siren.
Today's lightnin ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
10h ago
Here are actual rainfall amounts across the contiguous 48-states during the past seven days.
And, here is the forecast rainfall for the next seven days.
These forecast five-inch amounts may lead to localized flooding, while the forecast rain in the central Great Plains, if they develop, will cause mild drought relief.
Below is the latest drought information:
While this is not my favorite drought metric (yellow ≠ drought), it is the most up-to-date that I can provide. The wheat and ranch lands in central and western Kansas along with ranch lands in southwest Texas and New Mex ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
15h ago
We've added more photos to my collection at Adobe Stock Photography. You can view them, here. While I photograph a large variety of topics, none of my weather and nature photographs are filtered -- they are exactly as Mother Nature presented the situation.
Please take a look. I believe you will enjoy what you see.  ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
15h ago
Tornado Forecast
The tornado risk, while wide geographically, is less today. Brown is "significant," each of the days this week have had a higher category of risk.
Damaging Wind Threat
Where you see the hatching, there is an enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. Of course, with that level of winds, power outages are possible.  ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
1d ago
We have one more day of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and then Mother Nature will be giving us a break.
Tornado Forecast
The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes.
Damaging Wind Forecast
The hatched area has the potential for winds of 75 mph or stronger along with power outages. The unhatched areas have the potential for gusts of 60 mph or stronger.
Large Hail Outlook
The hatched area is where hail stones 2" or larger are forecast to fall.
I will update this outlook Thursday morning ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
2d ago
I completely understand if you are sick of reading about tornadoes but do consider that the EF-4 tornado that flattened Barnsdall, Oklahoma, and the same tornado (at lesser intensity) that damaged Bartlesville just killed a single person. That was clearly due to the forecasts and warnings.
The good news is that next week looks less active than this week.
Tornado Risk Forecast
The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.
Damaging Wind Forecast
This will be a major problem today.
Where you ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
2d ago
This is the end of my tornado coverage for tonight. A very busy day in the Midwest.
Unfortunately, tomorrow (Wednesday) looks like it will be equally busy. I'll have updated forecasts at mid-morning.  ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
2d ago
Please keep up on the latest weather information.  ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
3d ago
Today is the day after one of the most urgent tornado forecasts in years.
I validate my forecasts rather than the NWS's. If you scroll down, you'll see the forecast I made Sunday afternoon and the tornadoes reported, so far. I predict that in three days -- after the NWS's field surveys-- the number of red dots will double. Three of the existing red dots are of the violent, fatal tornado that destroyed much of Barnsdall, OK and did significant damage in Bartlesville. The Oklahoma side of the forecast was pretty good. I suspect the enhanced area (red) and significant (orange) will work ou ..read more
Mike Smith Enterprises Blog
3d ago
There is an enhanced tornado risk in the Midwest today.
The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk.
The preliminary tornado forecast for Wednesday also has a significant risk of strong tornadoes.
Of course, I will update these forecasts.
I'll have comments about yesterday's forecast later this morning.  ..read more