Rewind and Reconnoiter: How Likely Is an Invasion of Taiwan?
War on the Rocks
by Amanda Hsiao
9h ago
In 2024, Amanda Hsiao wrote “A Post-Election Risk Assessment for the Taiwan Strait,” which assessed relations and policies between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington ahead of the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election. In the wake of leadership change in both Taipei and Washington and continued cross-strait tensions, we invited Amanda back to reflect on her article. Image: Studio Incendo via Flickr In your 2024 article, “A Post-Election Risk Assessment for the Taiwan Strait,” you wrote about Washington and Beijing’s “shared desire to lower the temperature,” noting that Chinese leader ..read more
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Transforming NATO for the Future Fight
War on the Rocks
by Adm. Pierre Vandier, Ryan Evans
11h ago
Will NATO be able to innovate and adapt before a crisis? Adm. Pierre Vandier popped into War on the Rocks HQ for a most interesting chat about this very question. He serves as Supreme Allied Commander Transformation. A senior leader in the French navy and career fighter pilot, Vandier is responsible for the transformation of NATO’s military structures, forces, capabilities, and doctrines. With Ukraine struggling against Russia, technology advancing at a thunderous pace, and the geopolitical landscape shifting, Vandier offers some fascinating, quotable insights.&nb ..read more
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New Blood: Putin is Setting Up Russian Veterans to Take Center Stage in Moscow
War on the Rocks
by Harry Francisco Stevens, Thomas Lattanzio
19h ago
As the battlefields of Ukraine are covered in the blood of young men, the halls of the Kremlin may soon play host to an infusion of young blood, hardened and shaped by their time on the front lines. Meanwhile, Russian towns and villages from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka could find themselves flush with cash as returning soldiers adapt to newfound wealth and play games of “keeping up with the Ivanovs.” The social fabric of Russia may never be the same.  The Russian government, through measures intentional and otherwise, has enacted policies that will likely create a new middle class from veter ..read more
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In Brief: How the Trump Administration Can Address Military Recruitment Challenges
War on the Rocks
by Katherine Kuzminski, Ryan Haberman, Brian McAllister Linn
1d ago
A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** The U.S. military has struggled to meet recruitment needs, particularly in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic began. There are various diagnoses of the problem — including demographic issues; cultural and social changes; economic trends; changing perceptions of the military; and the role of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs — and consequently t ..read more
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How to Get the Most Out of the U.S.-Indian Defense Partnership
War on the Rocks
by Sameer Lalwani, Vikram J. Singh
2d ago
Upon taking office, President Donald Trump threatened reciprocal duties against “tariff king” India, sent a cargo plane of undocumented migrants back to India, and cancelled a sanctions waiver for an Indian port. This may not seem auspicious for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington this week. But it’s not nearly as bad as it looks. Despite tough messaging during a call between Trump and Modi last week, growing U.S.-Indian defense cooperation will provide the ballast to the relationship. This was previewed by the two readouts of the recent call between Indian Defense Minist ..read more
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Software-Defined Warships: The Navy’s Digital Future of Necessity
War on the Rocks
by Artem Sherbinin, Austin Gray
2d ago
In 2024, U.S. Navy warships received their first ever over-the-air software updates in combat. In the Red Sea, these upgrades improved the Aegis combat systems’ capabilities against cruise and ballistic missile attacks by Houthi militants. Over-the-air software updates are nothing new. In the commercial world, they happen every night —  on your laptop, phone, car, or even refrigerator. These updates work on any hardware that runs software, but have the most impact on software-defined platforms. Here, software sits at the center of the design, and can dynamically manage sensors, computing ..read more
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How Can We Measure if Defense Innovation Works?
War on the Rocks
by Casey Perley
3d ago
The Pentagon still lacks clear ways to measure if the organizations charged with innovation in the Department of Defense actually work. In 1964, the federal government funded 67 percent of research and development in the United States. By 2020, that figure had fallen to 21 percent. With defense budgets remaining relatively flat, it is more important than ever for the Department of Defense to adopt commercial technology. For 10 years, the Department of Defense has been standing up defense innovation organizations to make itself a better partner to tech companies. The Defense Innovation Unit was ..read more
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Rolling Back Naval Forward Presence Will Strengthen American Deterrence
War on the Rocks
by Jonathan Panter
6d ago
Decades of global policing and crisis response have taken a toll on the U.S. Navy. If the United States wishes to deter China, Beijing must believe Washington can fight a sustained, brutal war, one in which the U.S. Navy can take major losses and still fight on. Today, that is not the case, and the concept of “naval forward presence” bears much of the blame. Naval forward presence remains popular with foreign policy elites and the military brass, but the election of President Donald Trump provides a chance to break its hold on conventional wisdom. Trump arrives with a mandate The post Rolling ..read more
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The Adversarial: Adapting to Changes in Washington and on the Ground
War on the Rocks
by WOTR Staff
6d ago
Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below. *** Russia Russia continues to make incremental gains on the front line in eastern Ukraine, but Ukrainian drone attacks increasingly threaten Russia’s domestic energy infrastructure. In the last two weeks, Ukraine has successfully attacked at least four major oil and natural gas processing plants, in regions as disparate as Nizhny Novgorod, Astrakhan, Volgograd, and Ryazan. As these plants have been taken ..read more
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Risky Business: Assessing Risk to U.S. Strategy
War on the Rocks
by Christopher Preble, Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe
1w ago
The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers ..read more
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