A surface-launched weapon traveling through the air struck and killed U.S. servicemembers in the Middle East, ending the decades-long streak of air dominance keeping U.S. forces on the ground safe from aerial attacks. A recent articleargued that this almost-71-year streak of air dominance ended in Jordan on Jan. 28, 2024, when three U.S. servicemembers were killed in a one-way attack-drone strike, threatening the relevance of today’s U.S. Air Force. If one agrees the U.S. Air Force is approaching irrelevance on account of one-way attack drones, then perhaps the streak ended 33 years ago. For t ..read more

The U.S. Congress finally passed the security supplement, authorizing a large amount of funding and support to keep Ukraine in the fight. This package buys Ukraine another year of time. What will Ukraine do with that time? What is the situation at the front? Michael Kofman answers these questions and more. Image: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense The post What Will Ukraine Do To Stay in the Fight this Year? appeared first on War on the Rocks ..read more

After openly discussing the potential of sending NATO troops to Ukraine recently, French President Emmanuel Macron is now being described as “the hawk” in some European capitals. His statements, however, offer just a glimpse into the underlying, and significant, changes in French strategic thinking over the last two years. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, France should, theoretically, have been in a good position to lead the European response. As the E.U. member state with the most significant military capabilities and a historic driver of European security and defense ..read more

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below. *** North Korea Russia used a North Korean Hwasong-11 missile to strike Kharkiv, Ukraine in January, according to U.N. sanctions monitors, further proof that Moscow helps Pyongyang skirt sanctions to supply arms for its invasion. This missile is one of at least nine such North Korean missiles used by Russia in combat, according to U.S. officials. Russia dealt a further blow to the internatio ..read more

Editor’s Note: This is the first part of a short series examining maritime geography and strategic challenges in specific bodies of water, ranging from the Arctic Ocean to the Gulf of Guinea and the South China Sea. The Arctic Ocean may be the world’s smallest but it looms large in the imagination. Remote and unique, the Arctic is, for some at least, the most romanticized ocean in the world. It has been fueling legends and ambitions for centuries, and continues to fuel new geopolitical myths today. Global dynamics, from climate change to the decline of American hegemony and technological revol ..read more

The Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Xiaobing Li, professor of history and the Don Betz endowed chair in international studies at the University of Central Oklahoma, for a book talk on China’s New Navy: The Evolution of PLAN from the People’s Revolution to a 21st Century Cold War. Image: Ken Hodge The post The Evolution of China’s Navy appeared first on War on the Rocks ..read more

In 2022, Tyler Bowen wrote “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s Crisis of Nuclear Credibility” for War on the Rocks, in which he argued that nuclear weapons were required for NATO to deter Russia as conventional NATO forces were incapable of doing so. In response to continued Russian nuclear rhetoric and Polish President Duda’s comments on participation in NATO’s nuclear sharing program, we asked him to look back on the article. Read more below. Photo Credit: 1st Lt. Jonathan Carkhuff, Air Combat Command Public Affairs In your article “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s Crisis of ..read more

According to a well-known Jewish proverb, “It is not the mouse that is the thief, but the hole.” In other words, some of the problems we face (mice entering our home) are perhaps more a result of our own actions or lack thereof (plugging the holes in its walls), than of the malign intentions of others. What does this tell us about the security challenges Israel faces from Hizballah, the Lebanese militant group and Iranian proxy? It suggests that the best way to deal with threats such as those posed by this violent non-state actor (the “mouse”) might not be The post The Case for Averting War Be ..read more

Almost 10 years ago I penned a strategy article inspiring ad hominem attacks, the suggestion by former colleagues that I had written something akin to The Anarchist Cookbook, and otherwise causing “profound disappointment” and “alarm” in the defense community. My target at the time was the now classic formula for strategy as the sum of ends, ways, and means. I argued this tended to transform strategic thinking into a means-based (resource-based) planning exercise. My answer to this problem was to define strategy as a “theory of success,” in the hopes of drawing strategists’ attention to the jo ..read more

In recent months, resistance forces in Myanmar have been making major gains against the country’s military junta, capturing vast swaths of territory in strategic border regions. Then, last week, the military recaptured the key trading hub of Myawaddy on the border with Thailand, just two weeks after the rebels had taken it. We asked four experts to weigh in on the current status of the conflict and whether these resistance forces could actually topple the military regime. Read more below. *** Richard Horsey Senior Advisor on Myanmar Crisis Group There ar ..read more