Market movers The major US stock indexes continue their upward lunge this week as well. The ADP payrolls, the JOLTS job openings, and the Challenger job cuts point to a slowing US labor market. This stalemate continues to fuel a scenario for a more dovish Fed, which would lower US yields and the USD while stimulating demand for high-growth stocks. While the market is increasingly confident that a hard landing for the US economy will be avoided, data shows that a US recession is still a solid probability. The economic calendar will deliver crucial macro data. Let’s start on Monday, 11 December ..read more

US Jobs Numbers Do The Trick Investors had to finally endure a bout of cold water on Friday after the latest US labour numbers signalled the Fed is unlikely to budge against rising speculation of an early rate cut in 2024. The dollar rose with higher yields just days ahead of the CPI and Fed events, even with inflation expectations falling. Chart: GOLD Key Factors for Today US Job Growth Seen As Catalyst For Rhetoric Change, Triggers Gold Downfall Europe Hits a High on ECB Peak Rates and a Stronger Dollar Against Euro SPR Refill Announcement Fuels WTI Uptick by Planned $70 Level UK in Econom ..read more

Welcome to Key To Markets preview of the Week Ahead. Currency Pair Performance 5-day performance as of December 7, 2023. 12:00 GMT. Source: finviz.com 10 Big Stories Last Week In case you missed it… US jobs data was weaker than expected. ADP payrolls, JOLTS job openings, and Challenger job cuts point to a slowing US labor market. Moody’s downwardly revised China’s credit outlook. The rating agency cut China’s outlook to negative as the economy slows. DAX rose to an all-time high. The German index outperformed its peers, rising to a new all-time closing high of 16533 on expectations that the E ..read more

Investors Eye NFP Amid AI Boom Optimism around the AI boom saw equities moving higher on Thursday as investors patiently waited for the NonFarm payroll report to reignite or kill the trend. The dollar weakened with the 2-year Treasury yield falling, but the 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to 4.14% ahead of the upcoming release. Chart: GBPUSD Key Factors for Today US Jobless Claims Show Slight Changes, But Market Remains Optimistic Yen Surges Amid Speculation of BOJ Policy Exit and Poor Bond Auction Europe’s GDP Slowdown Confirmed, But Germany’s Recession Risks Loom UK House Prices Rise f ..read more

Dollar Repricing Rally Continues Despite private payrolls confirming a cooling in the labour market, investors started to realise they overpriced expectations of rate cuts, offering the dollar another boost. The 10-year Treasury Yield advanced to 4.177% on growing bets fueled by the repricing of Fed cuts. Chart: EURUSD Key Factors for Today US Private Payrolls Show Signs of Weakness Ahead of Official Data Reveal BOJ’s Early Exit from Ultraloose Negative Policy Imminent? Oil Prices Slide Another 4% to Now Reach Fresh June Lows Deep ECB Cuts Loom as EURUSD Continues to Fall BOC Changes Communi ..read more

Soft Landing Picks Up Pace After JOLTS Investors expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates as early as next March, far sooner than the end of 2024 projected by the Fed. It follows job openings and quits rates moderating to pre-pandemic levels, a sign of a soft landing. Chart: WTI Key Factors for Today Soft Landing Expectations Grow as JOLTS Data Surprises to the Downside Job Openings Spark Market Reaction That Ignores Services Data Eurozone Faces Recession Concerns as ECB’s Schnabel Pulls Hike Plug Oil Prices Plummet to July Lows Amid Stock Build and OPEC+ Rhetoric Moody’s Warning Sends ..read more

Risk Assets Lose Ground Investors secured some profits from recent gains as US Treasury yields resumed higher on Monday despite data pointing to more weakness. Gold reversed substantially lower after hitting record highs. Chart: EURUSD Key Factors for Today US Dollar Fights Back Despite Lower Inflation and Factory Orders WTI Oil Falls 1.70% As Uncertainty Over OPEC+ Cuts Weighs In German Economy Expected to Remain in “Shock” Until 2024 Contrasting Trends in Asian PMI Service Sector Activity RBA Keeps Cash Rate at 4.35%, Chances of Future Hikes Wane Dollar Resumes Fight, Adds to Gold’s 6% Re ..read more

Market Movers The main US stock indexes carry on their upward movement this week as well. Some Fed speakers, most notably Fed Governor and well-known hawk Christopher Waller, signaled that the Fed could consider rate cuts should inflation keep falling. A more accommodative Fed could drag down Treasury yields and the USD, while stimulating demand for high-growth stocks. While the market is increasingly confident that a hard landing for the US economy will be avoided, data shows that a US recession is still a solid probability. The economic calendar will deliver important macro data. Let’s start ..read more

Gold Soars to Record High Investors leaned towards the dovish camp following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Friday despite reiterating possible rate hikes and premature speculation of rate cuts. US Treasury yields dropped to 4.2%, partly supported by weaker employment data seen in the ISM, sending gold to a record high. The yellow metal was subsequently pushed higher on the open on the latest developments in the Red Sea. Chart: GOLD Key Factors for Today Record-Breaking Gold Prices Fueled by Powell’s Stance, US Data, and Red Sea Conflict UK’s PMI Modest Recovery Offset Largely by Positive H ..read more

Welcome to Key To Markets preview of the Week Ahead. Currency Pair Performance 5-day performance as of November 30, 2023. 10:00 GMT. Source: finviz.com 10 Big Stories Last Week In case you missed it… Fed officials hinted at a dovish pivot. Fed speakers, most notably Fed Governor and known hawk Christopher Waller, signaled that the Fed could consider rate cuts should inflation keep falling. Eurozone inflation cooled by more than expected. CPI eased to 2.4% YoY in November, down from 2.9% in October. The data supports the view that the ECB has finished hiking rates. GBP/USD rose to a 3-month hi ..read more