Fortunately, Hurricane Milton has weakened (as per NHC forecast) from the powerful Cat 5 yesterday (165 mph) to less than 120 mph today.  Just look at the difference in the satellite presentation from 24 hours ago.  The classic "donut hole" structure is gone, but there is still a core surrounding the center that is no longer apparent. The top is Milton at his strongest. Milton's circulation is being hindered by 25-30+  knots of SW wind shear, but the radar views are still quite impressive. As with Francine & Helene earlier this year, Milton rainfall is north side l ..read more

Gosh, I'd hate to be one of the NHC's Hurricane Specialists trying to figure out/pinpoint landfall locations at 36 hours out.  As their discussions have indicated, the forecast error at 36 hours can be 60-70 miles. That's huge regarding who gets the greatest impacts and who doesn't.  But can you risk that the wobble will be away from you?  That's why NHC must over warn the areas covered by the Hurricane Warning.  But what are these wobbles? Look at Milton's track just north of the Yucatan.  The latest wobble to the right places Milton's track outside the eastern si ..read more

I remember reading those words issued by the Slidell office of NWS before Katrina struck.  Those were words of wisdom that I believed saved thousands of lives.  Indeed, NOLA was brought to her knees and it took weeks just to restore power and months to get basic services back.  Total recovery took years and I'm afraid Florida's West Coast will suffer the same fate.  Hurricane Milton, like Katrina a Category 5, is expected to weaken back to a Cat. 3 before landfall on Wednesday.  But remember, a decrease in winds doesn't mean less a storm surge.  Katrina's surge wa ..read more

 My mentor at Ch. 13 back in the early 70s was the Director of Weather Services, the late Roy Leep. He was Mr. Calm, Cool & Collected on-air during hurricane threats. However, in Roy's 40 years (1957-97) with WTVT -TV, he never had to face what's coming to Tampa/St. Pete./Clearwater/Sarasota during his career.  In fact, Tampa always seemed to dodge the bullet, although recent Helene did give them quite a battering.  Now comes Milton, a rapidly intensifying Cat. 5 Hurricane bordering on the strength of Andrew back in 1992. Milton has been moving ESE since last night and ..read more

Before I left for the beach, I mentioned in my last post that the threat to the northern  Gulf was decreasing.  Nothing has changed, except Hurricane Milton formed and all signs point towards a Cat. 4 or 5 strength as he crosses the Loop Current in the southern Gulf.  NHC is already sounding the alarm for a life changing storm where the eyewall crosses the coast.  I've been watching how the centerline track has shifted to the south from over Tampa to now over Sarasota.  It's way too soon to bet the house on where Milton will go.  However, his impacts will cover mo ..read more

 Looking at all the computer models along with satellite views confirms my belief that nothing is going to develop in the Gulf and impact the northern Gulf Coast through next week.  I know the local weathercasters are showing models bringing us rain, but I always remember one of my former co-workers (Jeff Baskin) say, "when in drought, leave it out".  We have been dry since Francine 3 weeks ago and I belief the models are overplaying the amount of moisture that will move inland during the next 2-3 days.  Coastal locations have the better chances to see showers. There is an ..read more

 Before heading into October, I mentioned yesterday that this was the 2nd wettest September, mainly due to Hurricane Francine.  We easily could have been the wettest since Francine's rains fell before Sept. 20th.  The last 10 days went dry, hence only the 2nd wettest. So the 17.37" at MSY falls between the 18.98" in 1998 & the 16.74" in 1971.    Now we turn to October, typically the driest month of the year.  That of course depends on tropical activity in the Gulf.  NHC has kept their probabilities at 40%, mainly because there is model consensus that no ..read more

 I was happy to see the NHC's T.W.O. decrease from 50% to 40% this morning and remain there this afternoon.  The set up this week is entirely different from Helene's last week.  Recall, ALL models were developing a well defined circulation in the Caribbean and moving it into the eastern Gulf.  I've already mentioned how accurate models were with Helene.  This week, NONE of the models are developing a well defined system and let me try to explain why.  We begin with the Water Vapor that has strong SW upper shear over the Gulf  and there is an upper low moving ..read more

I've mentioned in a previous post that we're going to the beach (Perdido) for my B-Day, a trip that has been planned for months.  But Bob, it's still very much hurricane season!  Duh, that's why you get insurance in case a storm changes plans.  I am not about to cancel until I see something form, and nothing is there yet. There is just something about seeing the beach & water, especially if you're looking out from an upper floor condo balcony. Look how attentive Bailey is looking out over the water!  The bottom is Brenda's beach bride getting ready to walk outside f ..read more

 Gosh, I'm almost embarrassed to see all the coverage on me, beginning with today's Times-Picayune/Advocate.  I'm featured with my wife Brenda in the living section.  It's a wonderful article about my gardening skills/luck, plus Brenda's art work that adorns our house.  Hope you enjoy reading it?  But there's more Lee Zurik!  I want to thank Jonee Ferrand, owner & publisher of INSIDE NEW ORLEANS, for selecting me to be in the "Southern Gents" feature in her magazine. It will be out on October 1st. Be sure to pick up your copy at the following locations ..read more