The 2024 year began the way 2023 ended. Globally, the MSCI World IMI Index (in AUD) rose 12.7% in the first quarter of the year while the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (including dividends) rose 5.5% over the same period. The composition of the rally changed meaningfully, though, with the Magnificent Seven becoming a magnificent five (Apple and Tesla both experienced share price declines over the quarter) and a significantly higher percentage of the market participating in the rally. More than half of the S&P 500 constituents traded at 52-week highs during the quarter. Plenty of ..read more

In episode 28 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss the prospect of price gouging in major Australian industries, the role future Competition Policy has to play, and the potential implications for investors. The topic of competition problems in Australia has garnered increased publicity in recent times, driven by concerns over long-term productivity issues and the more immediate price impact Australian households are experiencing. In this episode, Gareth and Steve discuss local oligopolies in the supermarket, airline and toll spaces, and what future C ..read more

This article was originally produced for Livewire Markets   In Homer’s epic poem The Odyssey, beautiful Sirens attempt to lure sailors off course by hypnotising them with their song and causing them to crash into rocks and land. Is the allure of cash currently having a similar effect on investors?  With some banks now offering north of 5% on savings, cash and cash products have re-entered the thoughts of investors, after being absent for so many years of ultra-low interest rates. That’s good news for investors. It’s also good news for markets. The “hunt for yield” when interest rat ..read more

In episode 27 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss the recent performance of small caps and the psychology of investing. Understanding the psychology of ourselves and others can go a long way to helping us navigate through life. Markets and investing is no different. Understanding this can enable us to avoid biases and regulate emotions to make rational and effective investment decisions. In the episode, Gareth and Steve discuss the works of Kahneman and Tversky, and how their own personal experiences of investing have been changed and shaped over ti ..read more

In Forager’s December 2023 CIO letter, Steve Johnson talked about increasing volatility and reduced focus on intrinsic value: “I don’t think any rational person is changing their valuation of the market by 20% based on one month of inflation data. Rather, financial markets are being dominated (more than ever, in my opinion) by money that doesn’t care what stocks are worth, only where they are going to trade in the short term. The computer says rates up equals sell. The computer says rates down equals buy.” It’s a tale evident in both markets and individual stocks. Global online gambling gi ..read more

In late 2017, there weren’t many buyers of Blancco Technology Group. The CEO had just been fired, the company had overstated its revenue figures, its financial reports were delayed, and the share price had fallen over 80% in a matter of months. It’s understandable why most investors were running for the exits. The International Share Fund team at Forager, however, were willing to take a look.  Forager’s investment in Blancco was ultimately one of the Fund’s most successful in its 11-year history, ending with a tense fight for the company’s future where it was eventually taken private. S ..read more

In episode 26 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Harvey Migotti, Analyst Nicholas Plessas and CIO Steve Johnson sit down to discuss the year just passed in markets, most notably a strong rally in uranium and the small cap recovery at the end of 2023. The uranium story grew throughout 2023 with the spot price increasing through the year. This was discussed in detail in Stocks Neat episode 22, where Harvey and Steve explored factors leading to a recovery in this market. Since then, the uranium spot price has continued to rise and has now reached over 100 USD/lbs for the first time since 2007 ..read more

For our holiday edition of Stocks Neat, Alex Shevelev, Portfolio Manager of the Forager Australian Shares Fund, is filling in for Steve and Gareth and he’s joined by a special guest, Will Lopes. Will is the CEO and Managing Director of Catapult (ASX: CAT) which has been an investment of the Australian Shares Fund for a number of years. With origins in the Australian Institute of Sport, CAT has pioneered the sports wearables space and their product is now used by thousands of teams around the world. Despite the impressive growth seen by CAT, Will still believes there is significant room to co ..read more

In the latest episode of Stocks Neat, Steve Johnson and Harvey Migotti discuss what they learned on their recent travels to the US and Japan. Their trip started in Chicago at an industrials conference, which gave the pair a temperature check on what is happening in the US economy. Then, Steve and Harvey visited Tokyo to meet with a few companies undergoing transformational changes in the IT space. “In that industrials space, I think there are some very helpful tailwinds going on in the economy. A lot of companies have been saying to us that [the US stimulus] has been helpful but it is not ev ..read more

In episode 23 of Stocks Neat, Co-Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss the opportunities available for investors in the current interest rate environment, following Steve’s CIO Letter, “Reasons to welcome the death of TINA”. TINA = “There is No Alternative” (to equities). In October, yields on US Government 10-year bonds hit 4.98%, a level not seen since the mid-2000s. With rising yields has come weakness in equity markets as investors take advantage of risk-free returns. So does the death of TINA mean disaster for equity markets? You might certainly think so. Steve an ..read more