In this week’s video insight, I discuss the transition from a long period of unusually low interest rates to what may be a new era of higher interest rates. Following the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a policy of keeping the Fed funds rate extremely low, which encouraged fiscal behaviours based on the assumption of persistent low inflation. However, recent spikes in inflation and cost of living, alongside escalating U.S. public debt and government spending, prompt a reevaluation of this policy.   Transcript:  Hello, I’m David Buckl ..read more

Both sides of politics and most businesses are obsessed with a “big Australia”. Dick Smith is one of the few on the opposing side of the narrative. And as the Minns NSW Government usurps local councils’ planning powers by announcing their support for residential property located within 400 metres of a train station to be turned into 8–story apartment blocks and within 800 metres of a train station to be turned into 6–story apartment blocks, infrastructure will inevitably be left behind, and many streets will become a carpark. More public golf courses will likely be stolen in the name of green ..read more

In last night’s ABC Nightlife interview, I joined Philip Clark to discuss the shifting landscape of the electric vehicle (EV) industry. We covered the significant drop in EV sales across Europe and debated the future sustainability of growth and market potential. Listen to the full conversation here: ABC Nightlife – ABC Nightlife – EV sales downturn ..read more

In this week’s video insight, I explore the challenging dynamics of the Victorian rental market – a pressing issue that uniquely impacts both renters and investors. Amid a nationwide rental crisis, Victoria stands out due to its plummeting rental vacancy rates and the surprising exodus of investors from the market. Despite what seems like a prime scenario for property investors, with demand high and supply low, why are many opting to leave? I delve into the reasons behind the investor retreat, explore the economic forces at play, including significant tax increases and the broader implication ..read more

Recent data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the Australian non-bank financing sector alluded to the fact that businesses are continuing to turn to non-bank providers for funding. As evidenced in the graph below, the non-bank share of business credit is trending upwards. Businesses are actively turning to non-bank lenders for bespoke lending solutions and quicker access to capital, in order to maintain momentum and assist with achieving growth. The banking sector continues to be the dominant lender within the residential mortgage-backed secur ..read more

In this interview, Richard Hemming and I discussed the promising landscape of small cap investments, highlighting the recent, strong performance of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. I shared insights on the fund’s strategic positioning and optimistic outlook despite market volatility, emphasising an overweight in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. I also discussed the potential for Australian tech firms and consumer retail strategies, explaining how the economic conditions influence market dynamics ..read more

Whilst Polen Capital, our investment partner in global equities, has been operating since 1979, manages 15 underlying investment strategies, has U.S.$65 billion in funds under management, and over 250 staff world-wide, it is fair to say it is not yet a household name in Australia. Montgomery partnered with U.S.-based, Polen Capital in 2021 to bring this well-kept global secret to investors in Australia, and pleasingly it appears others are starting to take notice. We’re delighted to announce that Money Management, in conjunction with independent research house Lonsec Research, has nominated P ..read more

In this episode of the Fear and Greed Podcast, Sean Aylmer and I discuss the evolving landscape of private credit and its emergence as a viable investment class. I explain how private credit operates outside the traditional banking system and has gained traction due to changes in banking regulations post-GFC. The conversation focuses on debunking myths around private credit, particularly the misconception that high returns necessarily imply high risk. This deep dive into private credit reveals its potential as a key component in investment portfolios, poised to become a more prominent asset cl ..read more

The long-awaited quarterly consumer price index (CPI) figure was reported this week. Over the March quarter, CPI rose by 1.0 per cent, which follows the previous 0.6 per cent December quarter increase. Over the 12 months to March 2024, CPI rose by 3.6 per cent. Whilst the annual rate of inflation is trending downwards, the quarterly figure increased by 0.4 per cent and poses ongoing challenges. The leading drivers behind the quarterly increase: Education fees rose by 5.9 per cent. This uplift was the strongest quarterly rise reported since 2012. Housing rose by 0.7 per cent. The rental marke ..read more

In what is perhaps a case of tail wagging the dog, a plunge in electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe is causing at least one government there to revise the dates by which automotive manufacturers must transition to manufacturing only EVs. EV sales have recently plummeted in Germany. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association recently reported a significant 29 per cent drop in German year-on-year electric car sales for March. And across the entire European Union, there was an 11 per cent decline compared to the same month last year. This shift in trend has understandably sparked concer ..read more