by Christopher Cooper Whether you want to call it a purple, swingy, battleground or competitive state, it is increasingly clear that North Carolina is the short-list of states that matter in the 2024 Presidential election. President Biden and Vice President Harris have visited North Carolina so often that state media are reporting about their favorite Cook-Out orders.  For his part, Donald Trump has visited the state recently and, perhaps just as importantly, successfully advocated for former North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley to become head of the Republican National Committe ..read more

by Christopher Cooper and Michael Bitzer Like a dinner guest that just won't leave, we're not done with the 2024 primaries yet.[1] The Republican (statewide) primaries for North Carolina Auditor and Lt. Governor are headed to a second primary on May 14, 2024, as is the Republican side of the NC-13 congressional race, two (Republican) Gaston County Commission primaries, and the Orange County Schools Board of Education. Now that the list of offices for the May 14, 2024 runoff is set, and ballots are being mailed out, we thought it would be a good time to address a few (five in this case) questi ..read more

 by Christopher Cooper We are still clearing out the dust from the 2024 primary election in North Carolina, but two stories have emerged thus far: voter turnout was down to its lowest level since 2004 and Unaffiliated voters in early voting selected the Republican ballot almost two-thirds of the time--a massive increase for the Republican Party. While those stories are clear and backed up by turnout as it is usually calculated, those numbers actually overstate turnout because many people engage in what political scientists call ballot-roll off--the practice of filling out the top of the t ..read more

Drs. Chris Cooper and Michael Bitzer join Brian Lewis and Skye David for their "Do Politics Better" podcast to talk early voting trends, races to watch, political party realignment, purity tests, and what surprises could be in store on election night. You can find the link to the podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/special-primary-election-preview-with-professors/id1557257071?i=1000647455704 ..read more

By Christopher Cooper As I post this (2:05 pm on election day), most North Carolinians have cast their ballots and will soon be turning to watching the results. What follows is a guide to watching those results--a cheat sheet, if you will--for what you can expect, when you can expect it, and which races to pay attention to. This guide isn't really meant for people who speak in #ncpol shorthand, but rather for people who spend most of their lives thinking about things other than politics and want to get up to speed quickly.  With that throat-clearing intro out of the way, here is my (rela ..read more

By Michael Bitzer With North Carolina's in person early voting now concluded, and the trickle of mail in ballots yet to come along with Election Day ballots, we can look back and see what the dynamics of early voting has to say about who, and which party, are showing up with banking primary election ballots. Just under 700,000 early ballots have been accepted as of Monday, March 4 for all party primaries, with the division breaking heavily to the Republican Party primary side--not surprising because of the slightly contested presidential campaign between former president Donald Trump and forme ..read more

You're going to wait longer for March 5 election results in North Carolina. The reason is buried in section 29, page 18 of Senate bill 747. It reads as follows: Clear as mud, right? Chris Cooper and Michael Bitzer reflected on what this new legislation might mean in practice in a short piece in the News and Observer/Charlotte Observer. News and Observer Link: https://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/article285856706.html  Charlotte Observer Link: https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/article285856706.html  ..read more

By Michael Bitzer With North Carolina's start to early in-person voting (what has traditionally been referred to as "Absentee OneStop" since voters could both register to vote and cast their ballot in a one-stop process), past trends might give us a sense of what we could expect over the next few weeks leading up to the March 5th primary election day. In calculating the below charts for the 2016, 2020, and 2022 primary elections, I relied on the NC State Board of Elections "voter history" data files that keeps a record of the vote method and party primary that voters cast their ballots in.&nbs ..read more

by Christopher Cooper Pitchers and catchers are reporting to Spring Training, a few flowers are peeking out to take a look around, and roadways across North Carolina are increasingly littered with political signs. Spring is coming and the the 2024 election is here.    Although ballots have been accepted in North Carolina since January 21, the election shifted into a different gear yesterday--the first day of in person early voting. As a result, it seems like as good a time as any to take a look towards the 2024 election and identify a few questions that observers of North Caroli ..read more

By Michael Bitzer Now that the first two contests of the GOP presidential primary season are in the books, all eyes now turn to February 24's primary in South Carolina, the "first in the South" contest for the Republicans (Democrats will have their official first primary contest in the nation in South Carolina on February 3).  Before diving into Palmetto politics, a bit of a review of some interesting trends in both Iowa's and New Hampshire's polls (entrance for the Hawkeye State, exit for the Granite State). First, party identification shows the strength of Republicanism in Iowa and the ..read more