
The Aleph Blog » Macroeconomics
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Blog by David Merkel. Helping Institutions and Ordinary People Invest Better by Focusing on Risk Control. My goal is teaching investors about better investing through risk control, and tying all of the markets into a coherent whole.
The Aleph Blog » Macroeconomics
5y ago
Photo Credit: Michael Dales || Futuristic, and with a twist
Well, I am back. This post will test whether images will post or not. My guess right now is not, so maybe I have more work to do.
Once I know that images will post, I will repost the deleted articles. On to tonight’s piece:
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There are many who get annoyed at the concept that the market is rallying while unemployment is soaring. Though this is not true now, others get annoyed at the market falling when the economy is humming along quite nicely.
My friend Howard Simons said something like, “Stock ..read more
The Aleph Blog » Macroeconomics
5y ago
1) I still can’t post images at my blog. If you can believe it, WordPress is trying to fix it. The one cost involved is that the last three posts will be wiped out, and all comments since 4/8.
2) I’ve spent the time since my last post improving my models. I played around with a seven-parameter model, but found that it took ~10,000x as much time to converge to a solution, and there were multiple solutions with very different results that fit close to equally well. My conclusion was that they were different ways to amplify noise.
Instead, I created a second model based on the idea that the rate ..read more