To mark my honorary fellowship of the CISI, I gave a brief talk on the important subject of professionalism — a subject which will be an important aspect of a forthcoming book. The post The Role of the Professional appeared first on John Kay ..read more

In 2008, the Instituto Veneto awarded me a prize for this essay on the future of Venice, which advocated charging tourists €50 to enter the city. 16 years later, a similar (but cheaper) scheme has been implemented. Venice is the first urban theme park. Like any other theme park, it is full of attractions, but impractical for everyday living. Since it has about 70,000 residents and 19 million visitors a year, most of the people you find in Venice at any time are tourists. The ratio of tourists to residents will rise inexorably. Economic growth will add millions to the numbers of potential visit ..read more

Professor Sir John Kay is one of Britain’s leading economists with particular interests in business and finance and their interaction with public policy. Fuller information on his work, career and research interests can be found on the rest of this site. He is looking for a research assistant for a period of one to two years; the position would be ideal for someone completing an undergraduate or masters course who wants to embark on a career, but not necessarily an academic career, in economics. There may also be an opportunity for an internship over the summer. Previous holders of these ..read more

I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much indetermined and unpredictable, to a pretence of exact knowledge that is likely to be false. The credit which the apparent conformity with recognized scientific standards can gain for seemingly simple but false theories may, as the present instance shows, have grave consequences. Friedrich von Hayek, Prize lecture in Stockholm on receiving the 1974 Nobel Prize in Economics. 1974 was also the year I thought about pensions for the first time, although, like most people in their twenties, not for long. The long-standing provision of d ..read more

Once upon a time, there was a wise and kindly Emperor, with a faithful retainer called Sid. One day, the Emperor took him aside. ‘You are serving me well, and as a mark of my esteem you will receive a pension which will enable you to maintain your standard of living even when you are no longer fit to work.’ ‘Thank you,’ said the faithful retainer, ‘but what happens, O wise Emperor, if you die before I do?’ ‘Have no fear,’ said the Emperor, ‘My descendants will recognise the prosperity I have bestowed on them. They will honour my commitment, and in fairness to them I have set aside an earm ..read more

The years since the 2008 financial crisis have been among the strangest in the history of monetary policy. Interest rates have been lower than at any time since the Industrial Revolution. Governments have been issuing debt in unprecedented quantities, and central banks have been buying the debt back. But this era seems to be coming to an end. Interest rates around the world are rising. Markets talk not of quantitative easing but of quantitative tightening. What has been going on? Edward Chancellor’s new book offers a very long-term perspective, beginning in Babylon and ending with Covid. The b ..read more

John Kay is one of Britain’s leading public economists.  He writes books and articles and lectures widely to both technical and general audiences.  If you are not familiar with his work, go to www.johnkay.com John requires an assistant to provide both research assistance and administrative support.  The work will involve research assistance of a conventional kind:  collecting and analysing data and identifying and summarising sources. It will also include helping to manage John’s diary and make travel arrangements, taking charge of John’s website an ..read more

I have a new working paper with Matthew Ford looking at ‘Ergodicity Economics‘, which is an attempt to produce “a re-write of economic theory, taking account of the ergodicity question: are averages over time identical to expectation values (averages across the stochastic ensemble)?” In our paper we argue that ergodicity economics as currently theorised is actually a restricted case of the theory it criticises, and it does not provide convincing alternative justifications for its usefulness. You can read it here. The post A Critique of ‘Ergodicity Economics’ appeared first on John Kay ..read more

The promotion of competition is  an existing aim of financial regulation. But in proposals around the Future Regulatory Framework in the Queen’s Speech last month, an additional objective was suggested: encouraging “competitiveness”. This modification of the regulatory remit sounds like a technical, semantic change. It is indeed technical — the devil of all financial regulation is in the detail — but it is much more than semantic. The Financial Conduct Authority has a good record of promoting competition. In particular, it has cleared the way for innovative new businesses to challenge inc ..read more

There is not much humour to be found in the Ukrainian war, but here is a vignette that might give momentary relief from the tragedy – or even a moment of insight into it. Luhansk, capital of the self-declared independent Luhansk republic in Eastern Ukraine, was founded by the British industrialist Charles Gascoigne. He established an armaments industry in eighteenth-century Russia – as it then was – and chose that resource-rich area for its location. Gascoigne was not strictly speaking a Scot – he was born in England and his father was an English officer in the army sent to pacify the Highland ..read more