The Bank of England sets out a road map for UK interest-rates to fall to 4%
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
2d ago
On Friday evening we got quite a significant policy speech from the Bank of England. This is partly because of its structure as of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee some 5 of them are “insiders” under the ..read more
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UK March Retail Sales are either flat (seasonally adjusted) or up 4.3%
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
4d ago
This morning has seen the latest UK Retail Sales release and on the surface not much is happening. Retail sales volumes (quantity bought) were estimated to be flat (0.0%) in March 2024, following an increase of 0.1% in February 2024 ..read more
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US fiscal policy has juiced bond yields, interest-rates and economic growth
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
4d ago
The economic story of 2024 is again being driven by the US economy. Back on the 4th of this month we were ahead of the game. The Bond market sold off in response to the above and the thirty-year yield ..read more
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UK Inflation continues to improve but the cost of living remains high
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
1w ago
This morning has brought some better news for the UK on the inflation front. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to March 2024, down from 3.4% in February. So we have seen quite a ..read more
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Is it a coincidence that UK unemployment has risen following a methodological change or an effect of it?
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
1w ago
This morning’s UK laboir market release is a bit of a change on what we have become used to. But we can start with something that is both familiar and in my opinion good news. Annual growth in regular earnings ..read more
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What can we learn from the Bernanke Review of Bank of England Forecasting?
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
1w ago
Friday brought something which could have come straight from the pages ( or tv programmes) of Yes Minister. What I mean by that is releasing the Bernanke Review at Midday on Friday meant many minds were already drifting towards the ..read more
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UK GDP has started 2024 strongly but per head we have lost around 1% over the past year
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
1w ago
This morning has started pretty brightly for the UK economy via the latest monthly GDP release. From the Office for National Statistics. Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in February 2024, following growth ..read more
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The Bank of England should not cut interest-rates says Megan Greene
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
1w ago
This morning we have heard from the Bank of England or at least one of its nine ( like the Nazgul in The Lord of the Rings) policymakers. But before we get to the words of Megan Greene there is ..read more
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Germany is facing deindustrialisation caused by its own energy policies
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
2w ago
A rise in energy costs is an especially big issue if you are an exporting manufacturer. The issue is in play for my subject of yesterday Japan, but when one thinks about it the classic case is Germany. We have ..read more
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How many times have we been told that Real Wages in Japan are about to rise?
Notayesmanseconomics's Blog
by notayesmanseconomics
2w ago
This week has started with the focus switching East to Japan. One factor in play is this. SUZUKI: WATCHING FX DEVELOPMENTS WITH HIGH SENSE OF URGENCY ( @FirstSquawk) So we are back in the phase where the Japanese Finance Minister ..read more
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