by Joachim Dengler This post is the first of two extracts from the paper Improvements and Extension of the Linear Carbon Sink Model. Introduction – Modelling the Carbon Cycle of the Atmosphere When a complex system is analyzed, there are two possible approaches. The bottom-up approach investigates the individual components, studies their behavior, creates models of these components, and puts them together, in order to simulate the complex system. The top-down approach looks at the complex system as a whole and studies the way that the system responds to external signals, in the hope to find kn ..read more

By Javier Vinós The climate event of 2023 was truly exceptional, but the prevailing catastrophism about climate change hinders its proper scientific analysis. I present arguments that support the view that we are facing an extraordinary and extremely rare natural event in climate history. 1. Off-scale warming Since the planet has been warming for 200 years, and our global records are even more recent, every few years a new warmest year in history is recorded. Despite all the publicity given each time it happens, it would really be news if it didn’t happen, as it did between 1998 and 2014, a pe ..read more

by Judith Curry Today I’m participating in a panel on K-12 education, hosted by the National Association of Scholars. You can watch the event on youtube. The even is launching a new document called the Franklin Standards on K-12 education, which are available online link JC’s remarks Hello everyone.  I appreciate the opportunity to participate in this panel. Let me start off by saying that I would be delighted to teach freshman college students that had been taught the content that Franklin proposes. I strongly endorse Franklin’s recommendations on teaching Scientific Inquiry, History of ..read more

By Javier Vinós Part I in this series on the Sun and climate described how we know that the Sun has been responsible for some of the major climate changes that have occurred over the past 11,000 years. In Part II, we considered a range of changes that the Sun is causing in the climate today, including changes in the planet’s rotation and in the polar vortex that are changing the frequency of cold winters. None of the evidence for the Sun’s effect on climate we reviewed is included in the IPCC reports. The role of the IPCC is to assess the risk of human-induced climate change, not to find the c ..read more

by Judith Curry Last January, I visited Prager U in California.  I recorded several videos.  Science.feedback.org has done a fact check on my 5 minute video, which is the topic of this post Here is information about Prager U. Here are links to my two videos. The Good News About Climate Change  Stories About Us: Climate Scientists Can’t Intimidate Me JC’s Prager U text Let’s start with the good news. All things considered, planet earth is doing fine.  Humans are doing better than at any other time in history.  Over the last hundred years, when temperatures have warmed b ..read more

by Javier Vinós Part 2 of a 3-part series. Part I is here. The effect of the Sun on climate has been debated for 200 years. The basic problem is that when we study the past, we observe strong climatic changes associated with prolonged periods of low solar activity, but when we observe the present, we are able to detect only small effects due to the 11-year solar cycle. There are several possible explanations for this discrepancy. But the main question is how the Sun affects climate. In this article we examine the effects on climate caused by the 11-year solar cycle over the last few cycles and ..read more

by Judith Curry My talk on Climate Uncertainty and Risk, presented at the Annual GWPF Lecture Video of the presentation [here].  My ppt slides can be downloaded here [ GWPF uncert & risk (2)]. Josh has prepared a cartoon montage: Below is a transcript of my remarks: I am delighted to be here this evening, to talk about my favorite topic – climate uncertainty and risk. To provide some context for climate uncertainty and risk, lets first consider the so-called climate certainties: The Earth’s climate is warming A warming climate is dangerous We’re causing the warming by emitting CO2 f ..read more

by Javier Vinós Part I of a three part series. The Sun is a variable star and the amount of energy it emits varies from month to month, year to year, and century to century. One of the manifestations of these variations are sunspots, which are more common when the Sun is more active and disappear when it is less active. These spots follow a solar cycle of about 11 years, but sometimes there is a longer period, decades or centuries, when the Sun’s activity is so low that there are no spots. These periods are called grand solar minima. There are also periods of decades or centuries when the acti ..read more

by Judith Curry “Europe’s highest human rights court ruled Tuesday that countries must better protect their people from the consequences of climate change , siding with a group of older Swiss women against their government in a landmark ruling that could have implications across the continent.” [link] “The court — which is unrelated to the European Union — ruled that Switzerland “had failed to comply with its duties” to combat climate change and meet emissions targets. That, the court said, was a violation of the women’s rights, noting that the European Convention on Human Rights guarante ..read more

by Javier Vinós The unlikely volcano, the warmest year, and the collapse of the polar vortex. The climate events of 2022-24 have been were truly extraordinary. From an unlikely undersea volcanic eruption to the warmest year on record to the collapse of the polar vortex after three sudden stratospheric warming events. This rare convergence presents a unique learning opportunity for climatologists and climate aficionados alike, offering insights into a climate event that may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years. January 2022, the unlikely volcano Never before have we witness ..read more