The global climate change suicide pact
Arctic News Blog
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1d ago
 by Andrew Glikson Despite of deceptively-claimed mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in parts of the world, ongoing burning of domestic and exported fossil fuels world-wide continues to change the composition of the atmosphere, enriching it in greenhouse gases by yet another ~2 ppm CO₂ (2022: 418.95 ppm; CH₄: 1915 ppb; N₂0: 337 ppb), reaching levels commensurate with those of the Miocene (23.03 to 5.333 Ma) at rise rates exceeding any in the geological record of the last 66 million years (Glikson, 2020) (Figure 1).  Figure 1. Global 1880-2021 annual average temp ..read more
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A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon
Arctic News Blog
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3w ago
A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks.  The upcoming El Niño Temperatures are currently suppressed as we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post.   The above image also indicates that a strong El Niño has become more common over the years. The above image was created using data up to Septemb ..read more
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Wild Winter Weather
Arctic News Blog
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1M ago
[ posted earlier at facebook ] The image on the right shows a forecast of very low temperatures over North America with a temperature of -40 °C / °F highlighted (green circle at center) for December 23, 2022 14:00 UTC.  As the image shows, temperatures over large parts of North America are forecast to be even lower than the temperature at the North Pole.   The combination image below illustrates this further, showing temperatures as low as -50.3°C or -58.6°F in Alaska on December 22, 2022 at 17:00 UTC, while at the same time the temperature at the North Pole was -13.6 ..read more
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The short lifespan of technological civilizations and the future of Homo sapiens
Arctic News
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1M ago
by Andrew Glikson In his book ‘Collapse’ (2011) Jared Diamond portrays the fate of societies which Choose to Fail or Succeed. On a larger scale the Fermi’s paradox suggests that advanced technological civilizations may constitute ephemeral entities in the galaxy, destined to collapse over short periods. Such an interpretation of Fermi’s paradox, corroborated by recent terrestrial history, implies that the apparent absence of radio signals from Milky Way planets and beyond may be attributed to an inherently self-destructive nature of civilizations which reached the ability to propagate radio w ..read more
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Antarctic sea ice in rapid decline
Arctic News
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1M ago
Earlier this year, on February 25, Antarctic sea ice extent was at an all-time record low of 1.924 million km², as the above image shows. Throughout the year, Antarctic sea ice extent has been low. On December 14, 2022, Antarctic sea ice was merely 9.864 million km² in extent. Only in 2016 was Antarctic sea ice extent lower at that time of year, and - importantly - 2016 was a strong El Niño year. The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon. Meanwhile, ocean heat content keeps rising due to ..read more
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Politicians for sale
Arctic News
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1M ago
Are politicians for sale?  How can it be measured whether politicians are for sale and to what extent this occurs?  One measure of how much looters and polluters are buying politicians could be this: How fast is methane accelerating?  Rise in methane and rise in temperature The rise in methane is vitally important, given methane's potential to rapidly push up temperatures.  Arguably the most important metric related to climate change is surface temperature on land, as illustrated by the image below from an earlier post. The image was created with a July 16, 2022 scr ..read more
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There is no Carbon Budget
Arctic News
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2M ago
In the above image, the atmosphere is presented as a "bucket" filling with greenhouse gas pollution from fossil fuel use from 1870 to 2020. The image depicts that there is some carbon budget left, before 1.5°C above pre-industrial will be reached. The Global Carbon Project has just issued an update of what it refers to as the Global Carbon Budget.  The Global Carbon Project insists that there still is some carbon budget left, even as global fossil fuel C₂O emissions in 2021 were higher than 2020, and are projected to be higher again in 2022 than 2021, as illustrated by the image ..read more
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The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments
Arctic News
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3M ago
The upcoming El Niño The above image shows a forecast for August 2023 of the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, from tropicaltidbits.com. The forecast shows temperatures that are higher than average (based on 1984-2009 model climatology) for the tropical Pacific region indicative for an El Niño event.  By contrast, the above forecast for November 2022 shows temperatures in the tropical Pacific region that are much lower than average, indicating that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña.  By comparison, the above nullschool.net image s ..read more
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Transforming Society
Arctic News
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3M ago
How can the problems of war, climate collapse and famine best be addressed?  Earlier this year, the U.N. issued a warning about famine, pointing out that war is compounding the problems of climate disruption and famine, adding that the "main costs to farmers are fertilizers and energy". The U.N. statement follows many news media reports about the rising cost of living.   How can these problems best be addressed? Two sets of feebates can best accomplish agriculture reform and a rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, as has been discussed in many earlier posts and as is di ..read more
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Methane keeps rising
Arctic News
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4M ago
Methane keeps rising. The image below shows methane flask measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, since 2001.  A recently-published article points out that prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. There is the danger that, as methane keeps rising, the clouds tipping point could be crossed. This danger is rarely discussed. How bad could it be?  The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1981 ppb at 393 mb on October 2, 2022 am, while plenty of methane was present over the Arctic Ocean at the three altitudes, as the compilation image belo ..read more
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