Arctic sea ice area  Arctic sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025.  Arctic sea ice area was 1.28 million km² lower on March 5, 2025, compared to March 5, 2012. The comparison with the year 2012 is important, since Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest minimum in 2012. Arctic sea ice area was only 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012.  The size of the sea ice can be measured either in extent or in area. What is the difference between sea ice area and extent? Extent is the total region with at least 15% sea ice cover. Extent can incl ..read more

The trends on the image below indicate that temperatures keep rising and that the rise may accelerate soon. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below. [ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ] The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values. [ temperature anomalies through ..read more

The daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 430.60 parts per million (ppm) on March 7, 2025, the highest daily average on record. To find higher levels, one needs to go back millions of years.  Carbon dioxide typically reaches its maximum in May, which means that even higher daily averages can be expected over the next few months. The image below shows that this reading of 430.6 ppm at Mauna Loa is way higher than the highest daily averages recorded in 2024.  The image below shows the daily average for March 7, 2025, marked in blue and with an arrow pointing ..read more

An analysis by Bob Cohen with Grok 3 https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic Sam Carana’s Arctic News blog posits a potential 18°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels by December 2026, driven by ten amplifying mechanisms—ENSO shifts, sunspot peaks, aerosol decline, albedo loss, permafrost thaw, methane eruptions, clouds tipping, ocean heat anomalies, fluorinated gases, and wildfires. Prompted by this, I queried Grok 3 (xAI) to model the trajectory and impacts, integrating Kris Van Steenbergen’s February 25, 2025, observation: the Northern Hemisphere (NH ..read more

The above image illustrates the threat of a huge temperature rise. The red trendline warns that the temperature could increase at a terrifying speed soon.  At first glance, the data appear to disagree with such a rise, temperature anomalies even appear to have come down recently. However, a closer look shows the shading in the image, which illustrates the difference between El Niño conditions (pink shading) and La Niña conditions (blue shading). An El Niño pushes up temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. We're currently in a La Niña, so temperatures are suppressed ..read more

by Jan Umsonst [ Image from Karina von Schuckmann et al. (2023) ] Normally, I do not confer with AI and LLM's (Large Language Models) as I do not want to train them for free. It started with me accidentally pasting a paragraph without telling ChatGPT what I wanted. So, my little chat was initiated as follows: Jan: In case you do not know it, just ~2% of annually added heat in the Earth system warms the atmosphere, ~4% the land masses, ~4% melt ice, and ~90% of it heats the oceans. If these numbers should shift, that could fast be it for the human species. ChatGPT said: Yes, tha ..read more

The image below shows the temperature rise from end 2022 through February 23, 2025, with trends added.  The shading in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions (pink shading) that push up temperatures, La Niña conditions (blue shading) that suppress temperatures, or neutral conditions (gray shading). Such short-term variables are smoothed out in the black linear trend that shows a steady rise of about 0.5°C over the three years from end 2022 to end 2025.  This rise of 0.5°C over just 3 years (black linear trend in above image) is a much steeper rise than the ..read more

Since January 5, 2025, vehicles are being tolled to enter the Congestion Relief Zone in Manhattan South, New York, under the Congestion Pricing Program of the City of New York. On February 19, 2025, the federal government, through the Department of Transportation, stated its disapproval of the program. A WhiteHouse social media post shows a TIME magazine-style cover featuring Trump wearing a crown with the text 'Congestion pricing is dead. Long live the king!' In a news release, Governor Kathy Hochul and MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber respond. 'This is an attack on our sovereign i ..read more

A temperature of -40°C (-39.9°F) was recorded at the circle on February 19, 2025 14:00 UTC, as illustrated by the above image. What made this possible?  Temperature anomalies were very high in January 2025 in the Arctic, as illustrated by the image on the right. Arctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year. Temperatures of the water in the Arctic Ocean have been very high, resulting in very low sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image underneath on the right.  Arctic amplification of global warming at times causes the Jet Stream to become very wa ..read more

The image below, made with a screenshot from Berkeley Earth, shows an annual average temperature rise of 3°C or more in 2050 in China for each of the three scenarios looked at. China is important, it has a large well-educated population and a large part of global emissions is released in China. Some countries face even more dire prospects. Have people been told how dire the situation is? The general lack of climate action around the world suggests that people have not been sufficiently informed. Moreover, many scientists, journalists, judges, politicians and civil servants bluntly refuse to ..read more