The Clutch Defense of Emma Navarro
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
4d ago
Emma Navarro at the 2023 US Open. Credit: Hameltion The dizzying rise of Emma Navarro continues. She finished 2023 at a career-high 32nd in the rankings, rose to 23rd before Indian Wells, and now, on the back of yesterday’s upset of Aryna Sabalenka, she could crack the top 20 on Monday. Not long ago, many fans thought of Navarro as a vulture, riding a bunch of small-tournament victories to an inflated ranking. Now, with back-to-back wins over Elina Svitolina and Sabalenka on one of the sport’s biggest stages–and not on clay, her favorite surface–the doubters are quieting down. The American alr ..read more
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The Downward Slide of Stefanos Tsitsipas’s Backhand Return
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
4d ago
Stefanos Tsitsipas ahead of the 2023 US Open. Credit: Hameltion Yesterday in Indian Wells, Jiri Lehecka knocked out Stefanos Tsitsipas with a masterclass of precision power hitting. The Czech tallied 27 winners to Tsitsipas’s 8, and that’s only after a belated burst of energy from the Greek in the second set. When I wrote about Lehecka in January, I chided him for an “excess of self-restraint,” hitting too many balls down the middle to take full advantage of his baseline weapons. He avoided that trap yesterday, and Tsitsipas paid the price. Still, Lehecka didn’t seize upon every exploitable ed ..read more
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Yuan Yue Will Return Your Serve Now
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1w ago
Yuan Yue at Wimbledon last year. Credit: si.robi Here’s an impressive stat for you: Last week in Austin, champion Yuan Yue won more than half of the return points she played. In fact, had she picked up just one more point against Wang Yafan’s serve in the quarter-finals, she would have won at least 50% of return points in each of the five matches she played. This isn’t earth-shaking stuff: There are about a dozen tournaments every year where the champion wins more than the 51% of return points than Yuan did in Texas. Iga Swiatek won 56% at the French; Aryna Sabalenka cleared 52% in Australia ..read more
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Can Sebastian Baez Find Success on Hard Courts?
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1w ago
Sebastian Baez in Cordoba last month. Credit: jmmuguerza Sebastian Baez is a marvel. In an era dominated by tall, all-court sluggers, the five-foot, seven-inch Argentinian has carved out a place on the circuit as a throwback clay-court specialist. Just a couple of months past his 23rd birthday, he has already won six tour-level titles and reached a new career-best ranking of 19th on the ATP computer. The obvious comparison is Diego Schwartzman, another Argentinian on the small side who won titles and reached a French Open semi-final by grinding out victories and swinging above his weight. Schw ..read more
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Katie Boulter’s Game of Patience
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1w ago
Katie Boulter in 2021. Credit: Chris Czermak You can be forgiven if you didn’t have Katie Boulter on your radar going into the 2024 season. Her career-best ranking in the top 60 was a bit misleading, stemming largely from a debut title on the grass at Nottingham, where she picked up the championship without facing a single top-130 player. Nothing she can do about that, of course, but when it came to things she could control, the results were not always so encouraging. She wrapped up 2023, at 27 years of age, with a career total of just 25 hard-court victories. Since then, it’s been a whole new ..read more
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Alex de Minaur’s Adequate Inaccuracy
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
2w ago
Alex de Minaur at the 2024 Australian Open. (Getty Images: Julian Finney) Last week, Tennis Insights posted a graphic showing the average first serve speed and accuracy–distance from the nearest line–for the ATP top 20. There’s a ton of fascinating data packed into one image. Hubert Hurkacz is fast and accurate, Novak Djokovic is nearly as precise, and Adrian Mannarino defies logic as always. The most noteworthy outlier here, especially just after his run to the Rotterdam final, was Alex de Minaur. The Australian gets plenty of pop on his first serve, hitting them faster than tour average, if ..read more
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Surface Sensitivity and Ugo Humbert’s Serve
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1M ago
Ugo Humbert in 2023. Credit: Hameltion Let’s start off with a couple of puzzles. I realize they aren’t the sort of things that keep most of you up at night, but they were odd enough to drive me to a flurry of coding, data analysis, and now blog writing. On Wednesday, Ugo Humbert lost his first-round match in Rotterdam to Emil Ruusuvuori. It marked an unceremonious end to a hot streak for Humbert: He not only won the title in Marseille last week–launching himself into the Elo top ten–but he strung together 31 consecutive holds. 1,000 kilometers north, on a different indoor hard court, he got br ..read more
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Welcome to the Show, Luciano Darderi
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1M ago
Luciano Darderi in 2023. Credit: jmmuguerza Italian tennis hardly needs any more prospects, but Luciano Darderi has announced himself as yet another young player to watch. The Argentinian-born right-hander turns 22 today, three days after securing his debut ATP title. He came through qualifying in Cordoba, and in just his third appearance in a tour-level main draw, knocked out the 2nd, 4th, and 7th seeds en route to the championship. Darderi is a supercharged clay courter, comfortable on dirt yet possessing a serve and forehand that will play on faster surfaces. He cracked 25 aces in the Cordo ..read more
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Elena Rybakina and the Value of Average
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1M ago
Also today: Ugo Humbert in the (Elo) top ten; South American Davis Cup hard courts Elena Rybakina at the 2023 US Open. Credit: Hameltion Never underestimate average. Establishing oneself on the top level of the pro tennis circuit is extraordinarily difficult; proving that any particular skill is average among one’s tour-level peers is even harder. Most players are better than the norm in some categories, worse in others. Anyone who can beat the middle of the pack in every department is virtually guaranteed to be a superstar. Average is Elena Rybakina’s secret weapon. You probably didn’t know s ..read more
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Felix Auger-Aliassime’s Achilles Heel
The TennisAbstract Blog
by Jeff
1M ago
Also today: February 8-10, 1974 Felix Auger-Aliassime in 2023. Credit: aarublevnews There may not be a more beautiful serve in tennis. When Felix Auger-Aliassime is hitting his targets, returners don’t have a chance. Auger-Aliassime has been particularly deadly on indoor hard courts, winning four such championships in 2022, then defending his Basel title last October. Before returning to the winner’s circle at the Swiss Indoors, the Canadian’s 2023 season was one to forget. He struggled with a knee injury that knocked him out of Lyon and most of the grass-court season, where he would otherwise ..read more
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